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This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:
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ANTICIPATION
John AllspawSVP, Tech Ops
Velocity Europe 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
PREPARED?Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
KnowingWhat
Has Happened
(Learning)
(Response)Knowing
What To Do
KnowingWhat
To Look For
(Monitoring)
KnowingWhat
To Expect
(Anticipation)Knowing
What To Expect
(Anticipation)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
KnowingWhat
Has Happened
(Learning)
(Response)Knowing
What To Do
KnowingWhat
To Look For
(Monitoring)
KnowingWhat
To Expect
(Anticipation)Knowing
What To Expect
(Anticipation)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
DesignWorkResponseLearning
Thursday, November 10, 2011
“What could possiblygo wrong?”
Thursday, November 10, 2011
REQUISITEIMAGINATION
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Architectural reviews
Go or No-Go meetings
“Game Day” exercisesThursday, November 10, 2011
DESIGN
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Situations Considered By
Expert Designer
Situations Considered By
Average Designer
Situations Considered By
Novice Designer
Possible ForeseeableSituations
Adamski and Westrum, 2003 Thursday, November 10, 2011
“No problem!
I design adaptive systems.”
Thursday, November 10, 2011
DeepwaterHorizon
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Challenger Shuttle
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Adaptive Systems
ExpectedVariation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Adaptive Systems
ExpectedVariation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Adaptive Systems
ExpectedVariation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ExpectedVariation
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensationWoods, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
ExpectedVariation
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011
Target
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensation
SYSTEMS
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Target
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensation
NETWORKS
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Target
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensation
STAFF
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Target
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensation
TOOLS
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Target
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensation
FUNDING
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Target
New DisturbancesArise
Compensation isExhausted
Control
Disturbance
compensation decompensation
ANYTHING
Thursday, November 10, 2011
WORK
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Predictability
Given situationGiven individual
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Anticipation Skill
UncertaintyOf Events
Unknowable
Unknown
Known
Unthought-of situations
Potential situations
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
Anticipation Skill
UncertaintyOf Events
Unthought-of situationsUnknowable
Unknown
KnownPotential situations
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
Anticipation Skill
UncertaintyOf Events
Unthought-of situationsUnknowable
Unknown
KnownPotential situations
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
Anticipation Skill
UncertaintyOf Events
Unthought-of situationsUnknowable
Unknown
Known
Potential situations
(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011
RESPONSE
Thursday, November 10, 2011
RESPONSE
Thursday, November 10, 2011
RESPONSE
Thursday, November 10, 2011
LEARNING
Thursday, November 10, 2011
TIME
Thursday, November 10, 2011
SUCCEEDMATURELY
Thursday, November 10, 2011
DANGER
Thursday, November 10, 2011
“What an immense mass of evil must result...from allowing men to assume the right of anticipating what may happen.”
Leo Tolstoy
Thursday, November 10, 2011
HaphazardCowboy
ParanoidParalysis
?Thursday, November 10, 2011
TraumaticExperience
MatureRequisite
Imagination
Sources of Anticipation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
KnowingWhat
Has Happened
(Learning)
KnowingWhat
To Look For
(Monitoring)
KnowingWhat To Do
(Response)Knowing
What To Expect
(Anticipation)Knowing
What To Expect
(Anticipation)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
FEARThursday, November 10, 2011
CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
REQUISITEIMAGINATION
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Constant Sense Of UNEASE
Thursday, November 10, 2011
CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011
Homework!
1. What do you expect to happen?
2.What might fail during this scenario?
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Homework!
First: individuals
Then:As a group
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Homework!
?Expectations?
Potential failures?
Group versus individual?
Thursday, November 10, 2011
CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011
The End
Thursday, November 10, 2011
References
• Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC )
• Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http://amzn.to/s9Qo8n)
• Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo)
Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources.
These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and designing any complex systems.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
![Was Something Wrong with Beethoven’s Metronome?of Beethoven’s markings, regarded sixty-six out of a total of 135 important markings as absurdly fast and thus possibly wrong [1],](https://img.pdfslide.us/doc/110x75/5f5932a3f4ba62319477685a/was-something-wrong-with-beethovenas-metronome-of-beethovenas-markings-regarded.jpg)
