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Presentation by Mr. Aldert de Vries, Ministry of Interior and Kingdom Relations in the Netherlands at the OECD LEED conference on "Demographic transition and ageing society - Implications for local labour markets" (Lodz, Poland), 21/-22 March 2013
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9 april 2013
Demographic change in The Netherlands
Lodz, 21 Mar 2013
Aldert de Vries
Housing and Construction
Office
Ministry of the Interior and
Kingdom Relations
2
Content
• Demographic change in The Netherlands
• National and local policy responses
• Focus on economy and labour market
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3
Demographic transition in The Netherlands
• Stabilizing population
• Sharply rising age dependency ratio
• Relatively low fertility rates (1.75)
• Migration compensates for natural decline
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Total population (2010=100)
0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Europe
Japan
Netherlands
Poland
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Old age dependency ratio
4
Regional differentiation
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5 9 april 2013
6
Labour force
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Decrease of labour force
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Migration patterns
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Population or households
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Ageing and decreasing labour force
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Impact of international migration
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Consequences - national
• School age
• reduction of labour force
• finance of public services and pensions
• from growth to renovation
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Consequences regional
• Housing (vacancies, deterioration, devaluation)
• Services (health, education, retail, culture, sport)
• Local economy (mismatch labour market, closure or outmigration of companies)
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Intergovernmental program
• Objective: to maintain the current level of liveability
• 3 “shrinkage regions””, 20 “anticipation regions”
• 3 pillars: housing/spatial planning; services; economy/labour market
• Awareness raising, process facilitation, no funding
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Pillar 1: Housing
• Vacancy, price fall
• Remaining mortgage debt
• Downward spiral of attractiveness
• Renovation and demolition
• Buy out private owners
• Clever reduction of new housing scheme
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Pillar 2: Services
• Closure of shops, schools, hospitals
• Mostly rural problem
• Relocation in central location
• Citizenship
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Pillar 3: economy and labour market
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Demography
Skill Ecosystem
Labour Market Economy
Population dynamics
Fertility Migration
Life Expectancy
Marginalisation
Mortality
Ageing
Unemployment
Employment Ageing
workforceSocial
inequalities Retention &
attract. strategies
Shortage of
qualified workers
Sector structure
White
economySilver
economy
Innovation capacity
Green growth
Skills supply
Skills utilisation
Skills demand
Education and training
Skills development
Sustainable Development
Approach
• This is focus of OECD project in NL
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Negative trends
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• High percentage of low income, low educated and unemployed
• Low economic activity
• Low levels of innovation
• Skewed sector structure (industry)
• Culture of “inactiveness”
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Current and future mismatch on labour market
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0 5000 10000
Other services
Agriculture, forest,…
Hotel and catering…
Finance
Construction
Trade
Transport and…
Industry
Government
Business services
Education
Care
Groningen
Not an issue Average Ageing Strongly ageing
20
Promising responses
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• Spin off universities
• Open innovation (Chemelot campus)
• Triple helix agreements (government, education, business)
• Business strategies on personnel
• Promoting choices for promising study (“technology pact”)
21
Pitfalls
• Overoptimistically count on attracting newcomers
• Lack of inclusive approach (old workers, low educated)
• Small and Medium Enterprises
• Cluster policy (chemics works, health not)
• National policies.. Incentives for innovation in health sector; life long learning; social security
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Policy issues and recommendations
• Demographic transition is unavoidable – deal with it
• Search for economic growth models in context of population decline.
• Regional cooperation instead of competition
• More initiatives from society, less top-down solutions from public sector
• Shrinkage areas are the laboratories for the rest of the country!
9 april 2013