Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Mobile internet is bigger than most think it is.
Citation preview
Mobile Internetis
Biggerthan most
Think it is.
Jason Grigsby • SAO Dec 2009@grigs on Twitter • [email protected]
cloudfour.com • mobileportand.com
Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.
Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.(for 15 years)
“The Mother of all Markets.”
Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008
John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260
The Hope for Mobile
What is the
likelihood of
exponential
growth for the
Internet on Mobile
Devices?
!"
#"
$"
%"
&"
'"
(! ($ (& () (* (!! (!$ (!& (!) (!*
(+,-./-012345/16,+457
2+805-38/-019::;
3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ DE6 @/.05,F/
3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0
J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457
!"#$%&'()*&+,-+./0-$/+&12#2&3"#&242052-5$&-$6"/$&789%:;<&!$#+.2=$&,+$/+&50>0#$1&#"&?@&"35AB&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.F&$+#0>2#$+&G9:CC&3$#-""H+&F24$&+F0==$1&03&60/+#&$0DF#&I,2/#$/+&+03.$&52,3.F JKLMLNOB&@",/.$%&7">=23A&E$="/#+&P&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.FB
!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-*./0&1'2&13*".'()*&+)&*'45".*$")$67")&'8'$9"-07':1&+1';'<='4,>':1&+1'?'@-/+*&+1'4A*&+'>/-)07
!"#$%&'()*%"+*"%
DE6K
G1#H"16,+457/A1*L*%
,&-./"()*%"+*"%
@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/
6,+457/A1'L**
,&-./"()*%"+*"%
3<7=4/1>13?=+57
6,+457/A1'L")
M&)::
M#&::
M)::
!"#$%&'()*%"+*"%
@/.05,F/K
6,+457/A1!#L*%
M!!::
26
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
http://www.opera.com/media/smw/
Opera Mini Traffic IncreasesUsage up 157% year-over-year
4.0BillionMobile phone for half the planet.
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
4 Billion in Perspective
Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.htmlhttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html
http://www.communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/12/trillion-with-a.html
0
1
2
3
4
0.85B 0.95B1.2B 1.2B 1.3B 1.4B 1.5B
4B
Cars PCsLandlines
EmailInternet
TVsCredit Cards
Mobile
2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
•Box Office•DVD Sales & Rentals•Music Industry•Video Games
CombinedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
!"#"$%&'()*+
,-
.*/0)%'12#)*+#*)
!%3"4*12#)*+#*)
!5"#6+5&*
789: 78;: 78<: 788: =::: =:7: =:=:
.*>"$*/1?1@/*+/1A!!1"#1B%C1D$54*E
!"#$%&'()*+,-$%./0"$%1232/*"3+4*+/45"6)/"$742-"$83+/*+&,$9+2$:"**"3$;3&/"44+,-$;&#"3$<$='(3&>"6$74"3$=,*"3?2/"$<$@'200"3$8&3'$82/*&3$<$A&#"3$;3+/"4$<$BC(2,6"6$@"3>+/"4$D$EFC$G&3"$H">+/"4
7!!F1@#")/
7::!!F1@#")/
7:GF1@#")/HHH
7:!!F1@#")/
2#$+*5/"#C12#)*C+5)"%#
-5+1I4*$)+%#"$/1J,DK1LGDK1L?M
!%3"4*1M"N*%O%&*1
I#)*+)5"#&*#)J5&*/
!,P
Q"+*4*//1O%&*1L''4"5#$*/
-*441'R%#*1?1,.L
D&5+)'R%#*S"#N4*T534*)
-%&'()"#C1J+%U)R1.+">*+/1V>*+1T"&*K1789:1W =:=:I
!"#$%&'(&)*+#,--$.&/,+$&0$,12$.&34455&)*&36678&1$--92"*$&:&;*#$0*$#&<+$0+&0$,12$.&3=&)*&>44>&:&>44?&0$+9$1#)@$-ABC"<01$%&;DE8&5,0F&G)9,1)+8&5"0H,*&C#,*-$A&I$+$,012J
7GF1@#")/1?1@/*+/
7
7:
7::
7:::
7:K:::
7::K:::
7K:::K:::
!%+*1)R5#1X(/)1,R%#*/
25
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
!"#$%&'(")*+,-./0(*%-12/"%-3'&)%-('-40/56-7&6&,-8/6-9/(#% :-4;%$&)%-<%**-12/"%-:-=>?-9/(#%@(12/"% :-AB?-9/(#%
!"#$%&'())!"#$%&'())*+,*+,
--../(#)&/(#)&.. 0,0,
1/1&1/1&.. 23,23,
/45#$&/45#$&.. 6,6,7(8%5&7(8%5&.. 9,9,
:;<%=;%<&:;<%=;%<&.. 9,9,><?%=&><?%=&.. 9,9,
!"#$%&'())!"#$%&'())03,03,
--../(#)/(#)26,26,
1/11/120,20,
/45#$/45#$2+,2+,
7(8%57(8%5@,@,
:;<%=;%<:;<%=;%<A,A,
><?%=&><?%=&.. 9,9,
BC%=(D%&E1&'%))&F?";%&E5%=0+&/#;4<%5&F%=&G(H
#F?";% E5%=I+&/#;4<%5&F%=&G(H
!"#$%&'()*&$+#,-.#$+&./$0.1$&/",2$&2.33&#,-$&4$0&5.6&,+&78&-,9:#$+;&.++:-,91&8<=&">&#"#.3&#,-$&+4$9#&,+&"9&/",2$&2.33;&4$0&,?:443,;&#"#.3&./$0.1$&#,-$&+4$9#&"9&2$33&4@"9$&,+&.440"AB&C<&-,9:#$+&4$0&5.6B&,D@"9$ #,-$&+4$9#&4$0&5.6&,+&":0&$+#,-.#$+B&
?":02$%&,?:443, '"9+:-$0(0.E +:0/$6;&F<G<H;&I"01.9&?#.93$6&J$+$.02@B
G(#)H&E5(D%&J=%(KL"M;N&,&"O&P#8%&1Q%;<&";&-($?&B$<#C#<H
59
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123
http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266
http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm
56 million devices
115,014 apps
> 2 billiondownloads
Gold Rush was On
Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores
Ringtone Apps
http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
0 .99 1.99 2.99 3.99 4.99 5.99 6.99 7.99 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99+
Ringtone Apps
http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/?mpage=appprice
Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales:$32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue
http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/
Dapple
Throwaway Apps
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Throwaway Apps
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Pinch Media’s Conclusions
•Users stop using the average applications quickly.
•Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads
•Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off.
•Difficult to make enough money from a free application based on advertising revenue
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Success Determined by Top Lists & Features
http://appcubby.com/blog/files/financial_realities.html
http://148apps.com/10000
115,000 Apps
&
Findability?
More Open ≠ No Gatekeeper
96%Approved
(what about that 4%?)
Some Rejected Applications
http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html
• Obama Trampoline
• MyShoe
• I Am Poor
• The South Park App
• Pull My Finger
• iBoobs
• Slasher
• Murderdome
• Podcaster
• Freedom Time
• Google Voice
• iSinglePayer
"Even though my personal political leanings are Democratic, I think this app will be offensive to roughly half our customers. What's the point?" — Steve Jobs
http://www.pcworld.com/article/159887-2/rejected_10_iphone_apps_that_didnt_make_apples_app_store.html
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-hundred-million-dollar-mobile-app-question/
iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market
0
5000
10000
15000
2000019107
85217363
3631
1455 1316
Symbian RIM iPhone Microsoft Android Others
Q3 2009 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Unitshttp://www.canalys.com/pr/2009/r2009112.htm
iPhone Only Part of US Market
1%2%4%5%
6%
30%
52%
RIM Apple HTC Palm Nokia Samsung Others
Q3 2009 Smartphone Market Share
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o
Objective C
Java ME
WebOS
C++
.NET Compact
BREW
Dalvik
Visual Basic
C
Symbian Windows Mobile
Palm
Google Mobile — App Challenges
•Pressure from CEO for rapid releases
•10+ platforms to support
•Over 100 different builds
http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/
!"#$%&'&()*+)#'",*- ."/'0$*+1"/02&%*3*4",015#02&%6"7*+&89/%2",*:;0"%*.2%*<2(*2%*6"7*+)#'",*.$2'"*=%#58>"%0,*:;0"% ?/'0"1
!"#$%&"'(!"#$%&'()*+,-.
)(&*+$",!"#$%&'()*+/-.
-(*./+012$/(&$(/!"#$%&'()*++-.
!+3#,(12$/(&$(/!"#$%&'()0---.
!#$#!"#$%&'()*+1-.
2345'((36.
2345'((36.
2345'((36.
2345'((36.
!"#$%&'())$*+&,*"-&./01+&#"&./21+&34+$5&")&6"*#7)$&011&*4)8()9+&:*$;$)7$<34+$5=>&5$+8#"?&@)#$*)$#&A())$*+&34+$5&")&A$4B#C&D*$4#$5&,*"-&.//0&#"&*$+?$D#(;$&?$48&-4*8$#&D4?(#4B(E4#(")+F&G"7*D$%&64D#G$#>&6"*#7)$>&H"*94)&G#4)B$I&J$+$4*DCF
7'86"."9&:!'.8":;(&3<:=$$<3:>6?8<3:@7!A3<<:!"#$?B
C"")<3:=>D:3E?F:G?H""I:G?H""I:J?$?(=#?K"(L8"#M3(83(&=<'N?N?E?'O%P?Q%&3(
A')'&?<:@B%'$#3(&A?&?:C3(36?<RSS6'#3!"#$%&36T'.'"(5?():D?N.
;E72!P!"(&6"<:A?&?U$366FR"(3F43<<E%66"%)H.
16
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
!"#"""
!""#"""
!#"""#"""
!"#"""#"""
$%& $%' $%( $)! $)* $)) $(" $(+ $(% $(, $,& $,' $,( $"! $"* $")
-./01234.5367--8
!"##$%&'()'*+,-'.$/'01,2$'3)4$#'0%$+4$'5(%$'5+%6$4'0+7"4+2"8+4"(#'4-+#'!"##$%&'()'9%"(%'01,2$&
!"#$%&'()*$+&,-.$)&-.+-/(#$&0*$.&.$0&/1/,$&2$/"3$)&0$(,#*&/4$(#-".&+4-5$4&6-.&4$(,-#17&/1/,$)&"5$4,(8&)"3$0*(#9:&;"38(.-$)&-./,<+$%&=(-.>4(3$&? @A=7&B8$4417&C".$10$,,7&!;D7&E.-)1)F&=-.-/"38<#$4&? @A=7&C".$10$,,7&CG7&'H;7&I(.J&K(2)F&G;&? @A=7&
=-/4")">#7&@.#$,7&;-)/"7&B<.&=-/4")1)#$3)F&@.#$4.$#&? @A=7&=-/4")">#7&L""J,$7&M88,$7&N(*""O:B"<4/$%&P(/#B$#7&A,""32$4J7&BQG&B#"/R&L<-+$7&="4J(.&B#(.,$1&D$)$(4/*:
49:9;.2<=13-./01234.5<2.;<>.2<?@3?A3B?53'34?:592<@C34?:5.@<1D3A/?:3E.FG34?:592<@C34HF;1#3!,%&3I &"",JBK
-.<@A/.:1
-<@<F?:5921/
L4
K1D02?53M@21/@12
17
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
Apps are Just the Tip of the Iceberg
• Small & medium businesses will be impacted by mobile, but haven’t yet.
• Can people find their locations, information on mobile?
• Enterprise barely begun — access to Intranet content
• Mobile search = mobile search optimization
• What about Google Maps? How to make sure you show up?
• Mobile advertising campaigns and planning
Tips for Your Mobile Strategy
Consider Whole Mobile Strategy
What happens if they don’t have your app?
The App Store is Not Your Marketing Strategy
What is Your Recurring Revenue Plan?
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Know Your Demographics
Blackberry has
40%global enterprisemobile market.
Emerging markets
80%of worldwideMMS traffic.
BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue
Plan for Mobile Context
personal
permanently carried
always on
built-in payment channel
creative impulse
social context
location aware
accurate audience measurement
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
Thank You for Your Time!
http://cloudfour.com/blog • Twitter: @grigsMobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com
Backup Slides
!""#$%&'()*(+$,%)'%-.*(%/.)$0*.#%/.01$)%23.0$4%!(50'*5%-.*(,
!"#$%&'()*#+,-),.%,/*+0+"..(),%"(.+1"%2+"32(.*+*4($5$%*'6+7(1*#$+4($%89#"4%"(.+(9+:,#%.*#"./+9(#+4,##"*#$;+2,.-$*%+:#()"-*#$;+$(9%1,#*+-*)*7(:*#$<+=::7*+4(.%".>*$+%(+/,".+$2,#*+12"7*+#*$%+(9',#?*%+"$+9#**&9(#&,77<+@"&!"+A*4('*$+".4#*,$"./75+"':(#%,.%<+B((/7*+=.-#("-+',?*$+"':#*$$")*+".#(,-$+,.-+CDE+F7,4?A*##5+',".%,".$+'($%+(9+"%$+*.%*#:#"$*+>$*#$<+3#(->4%$+1"%2+A*$%+GHEIJA#(1$*#$+/,".+$2,#*<
677%8%9#':%%%%%%%%%;<='0,$%>.?$
=::7*+"32(.*6+K(?",+L5'A",.6+CDE+F7,4?A*##56+B((/7*+=.-#("-+M ',#?*%+$2,#*$+),#5+A5+#*/"(.<
@').#%90.AB$().)*'(@"..*#$+,.-+7($*#$+-*%*#'".*-+A5+4(':,."*$+1"%2+2(%%*$%+:#(->4%$<+N,##"*#$+#*%,".+7(%$+(9+4(.%#(7<+=::7*6+B((/7*6+K(?",6+CDE6+@".-(1$+E(A"7*6+3,7'+@*AOL6+DKPQ<<<+
!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-&+.*$)/'012*&3'4"3-&*$*$5&'6.)728.-&'9:+"#.#$%$*1;<&$/=*&7'08&).+$"2'>?@@A;?@B?CD
!"#!"#
$"#$"#%"#%"#
!"#$%&'()"$*+,(!-+,.&/(0&1&+$%23153
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
!"#$%&'(")*+,-&'.'/"0*&0*'12"343*&5'67$8&%4'*"'9&2"5&'!"-&':;&0'"<&-'=$5&
!"##$%&'"(%$)!"#$%&'%(&)*+
> ,-)).")#%-//)&0"%-**%1&2$"2$3%45.15%-//"-)#%&2%$5"%&''.1.-*%6+"1789
> :"0"*&/")#%&2*;%<"$%=>?@>A &'%)"0"2B"%C%/)&/)."$-);%"20.)&2D"2$
> E#")#%<"$%*.D.$"+%#"*"1$.&2%F%*&2<%4-.$
!"##$%&'"(%$)&**G//*"%F%H&7.-%F%(.2I&> :"0.1"%D-7")#%-//)&0"%-**%1&2$"2$3%45.15%-//"-)#%&2%$5"%G//%J$&)"9
> :"0"*&/")#%<"$%K>A&'%)"0"2B"%C%#$-2+-)+.L"+%*&1-*%J:M
> E#")#%<"$%D&)"%-//#3%NB$%2&$%-**
+),"##$%&'"(%$)-O-/-2
> ,-)).")#%/)&D&$"%&''.1.-*%6+"178 NB$%-*#&%4"*1&D"%=)+ /-)$;%6&''?+"178 1&2$"2$
> :"0"*&/")#%<"$%P>A&'%)"0"2B"%C%#$-2+-)+.L"+%4"N%"20.)&2D"2$
> E#")#%<"$%D&)"%-//#%C%1&2$"2$
./$)G2+)&.+%F%I&N.*"%("N> H&%2""+%'&)%1&2$"2$%-//)&0-*
> :"0"*&/")#%<"$%K>AQG2+)&.+R%$&%S>>AQD&N.*"%4"NR%&'%)"0"2B"%C%#$-2+-)+.L"+%J:M%F%4"N%"20.)&2D"2$
> E#")#%<"$%"0");$5.2<%-0-.*-N*"
!"#$%&'#($&#$)*&+,-./00$1&2/)1$-3 4"5)#$67&"8&9():6#";($)&<:00:4(&"8&=-8:-:#/>&?"5)4$%&=-8:-:#/@&A")B/-&?#/-0$7&C$6$/)4(>
0#12$%&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&3$456./$)&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&./$)
180
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
