A Perspective of a Connected and Autonomous Transportation System

A PERSPECTIVE OF A

CONNECTED AND

AUTONOMOUS

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

C. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E.

Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering

The University of Texas at Austin

March 2, 2015

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Why ITS?

United States in 2009:

• 5.5 million traffic crashes * – 30,797 fatalities (lowest

since 1954)

– 1.5 million injuries’

– $230.6 billion in costs

• $115 billion cost of urban traffic congestion**

– 4.8 billion hours of delay

– 3.9 billion gallons of wasted fuel

• Unacceptable

* US DOT, Traffic Safety Facts 2009

**Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Report 2010

Source: USDOT

Safety Facts 2010,

Texas Tech Institute

Mobility Report 2010

Vision –

What would we wish for?

Vehicles that can’t crash

◦ Vehicles are wrapped in information

◦ Everyone has technology-enabled safety in

their vehicles

Technology in transportation reduces

negative impact on the environment

◦ Improved system performance

◦ Improved driver decision-making

The issue of driver distraction is building

Crashless

Vehicles

Evolution to Crashless Vehicles

Connected- Mobile Communications

- Instant Asset Tracking

-Real Time Traffic Info

- Electronic Tolling

Autonomous

-Partial or full self driving

Coordinated- Coordinated Routing

- Optimized Traffic Flow

Cooperative

- Cooperative Collision Avoidance

- Transit-aware

Signal Preemption

IVHS – Getting Started

Mobility 2000

IVHS America Established

ISTEA

Strategic Plan for IVHS

IVHS Architecture Program

Early Tests and Deployments◦ TravTek, HELP, ETC, etc.

IVHS to ITS

1986-1994

ITS – Research & Testing

Mobilizing for deployment

Showcasing and broadening scope

Focus on benefits and opportunities

Internet boom

Major Milestones◦ ITS Program Plan, ITS America and U.S. DOT

deployment goals, IVI, MMDI, standards

initiatives underway

1994-1998

ITS - Mainstreaming

TEA-21

Deploy, deploy, deploy

Operations focus

511 begins

Beginning to recognize the need for more and better data

Hurricane Floyd and 9/11 demonstrate problems with being “blind”

1999-2001

ITS – Refining & Recommitting

Reauthorization – ensuring continuing role and recognition of the importance of ITS in transportation

Security and reliability added to efficiency, safety and productivity as goals

Recognized need to accelerate data gathering, sharing and use◦ Infostructure Proposal (TRB 2002)

◦ INTI from National ITS Program Plan

2001-2005

Robo-Taxi

Vision into the Future

Bright Future

Safer, more reliable, and more sustainable system

Just a few examples…

Auto Platooning

Ridesharing

Collision Avoidance

Intelligent Merging

Probe sensing

Auto Convoying (L2-L3)

Demonstrations:

GERMANY: platoon of four trucks with10 m spacing

U.S.: three trucks with 3-6 m spacing

SWEDEN: truck platooning on a 520 km route

VOLVO (SARTRE): platoon travels at 85 km/h, with 6 m spacing; 10000 km distance.

JAPAN: platoon travels at 80 km/h, with 4 m spacing

kpmg: self-driving cars: are we ready?

Market

Highly automated vehicles (L3-L4) to launch in five

years

2014 2020

Nissan AV on

market

2017

Volvo AV road test in

Sweden

Year

Google will test

driverless car in Calif,

U.S.

Driving assistance

features on market

Prototyping and lab test Large-scale road test and

commercialization of highly

automated vehicles

GM almost

driverless car

coming

2013

Toyota,

Audi

demonstrati

on

Mercedes-Benz

driverless car

production ready

2025

Daimler, Ford AV on

market

2010

Google self-

driving car

project

launched

The Vehicle is the Sensor

Maybach 57

Vehicle location

Destination

Traffic

Speed

Road surface

Weather…

Sensors Do Have

Their Limitations

Sensors provide part of the view

Range is an issue – often line of sight Scope is an issue – not everything needed can be

sensed in a timely fashion

Especially true in the rapidly changing situation of an an unfolding event

Maps & Sensors Collaborate

Inertial sensors provide information about vehicle’s current position and motion

Radar provides information about environment in the the vehicle’s heading direction

Digital maps provide information about the road ahead ahead and the vehicle’s future position with regard to regard to the road ahead

Examples of Wireless Technologies

Technology Range Latency

5.9 GHz DSRC 1000 m .0002 sec.

Digital Cellular 4000-6000 m 1.5-3.5 sec.

Bluetooth 10 m 3-4 sec.

Digital Television 40,000 m 10-30 sec.

Other 802.11 Wireless Technologies 1000 m 3-5 sec.

Terrestrial Digital Radio 30,000-50,000 m 10-20 sec.

Two-way Satellite N/A 60+ sec.

Wireless Technology

Revolution

Observations: Technology Private Sector

Fast technology evolution

◦ Growing use of navigation systems (on 69% of all

models)

◦ Growing desire to deliver real-time traffic information

◦ Some are marketing real-time information

◦ Data quality and extent is limited

◦ Many technologies are vying to be the data solution

◦ No clear winner…yet

◦ OEMs are looking to technology for vehicular safety

◦ Autonomous safety systems are growing

U.S. Department of Transportation

Spectrum Scarcity and Future

Communications Technologies

Work Areas - Policy

Preliminary topics

Data ownership

Privacy

Infrastructure investments

Data management & distribution

Pricing strategies

Military -- Cutting

deployment time from

60 days to 72 hrs.Growth in coastal

evacuation needs

Precision Weather

Response

National Park

Management

Everyone needs data!

Precision

Medical

Response

More and More Data in the

Cloud

By 2020, one-third of all data will live in or pass

through the cloud

Global cloud services revenue will jump 20% per year

IT spending on innovation and cloud computing could

top $1 trillion by 2014

Creating new capabilities…

1960 1970 1980 1990 20102000

Mainframe

CloudVirtualization

WebClient Server

Minicomputer

Source: Lew Tucker, Cloud CTO, Cisco, 2011; EMC, 2011; IDC, 2010

By 2015, 1 Zettabyte of Data Will

Flow over the Internet

One zettabyte = stack of books

from Earth to Pluto 20 times (72

billion miles)

Increase of 540,000 times from

2003; more than 90% from video

If an 11 oz. cup of coffee equals

1 gigabyte, then 1 zettabyte

would have the same volume of

the Great Wall of ChinaSource: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2011


Cloud Computing

The Opportunity:

Turning Data into Wisdom

Data

Data

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

More Important

Less

ImportantSource: Cisco IBSG, 2011

Information

“Ownership”

Each information network has multiple stakeholder and many different data “owners” e.g., the “Highway Information Network” has

many stakeholders, including state/local DOT’s, vehicle operators or manufacturers, package delivery, etc. – all of these groups have data pertaining to the highway

Data “owners” control the functionality, quality, security, and privacy of their data

In a “shared network,” stakeholders cooperate and share data to manage the system and provide value-added information

Summary


Cyber Vulnerabilities

Source: http://ics-cert.us-cert.gov/images/figure1.jpg

Barriers and Uncertainties

Adoption is uncertain:

Reliability of technologies Google’s car are

involved in two incidents so far in 200,000 miles travel: one rear-ended, one when a human driver took the control

Liability

Affordability A Google driverless car

costs $150,000 as of 2013

Does Moore’s law apply? Recall the price of personal computers.

kpmg: Self-driving cars: The next revolution

Barriers and Fears of Smart

Systems

Institutional barriers◦ Different sectors may not want to share data

◦ Lack of common language or criteria between sectors

Government regulation (or lack there of)

Consumer’s may not embrace the technology

Barriers can eventually be overcome

Fears◦ Loss of privacy: sensors everywhere gives a

sense of being under surveillance

◦ Potential for hackers to take over the systems

◦ People may become too reliant on smart technologies that they will not be able to function without them

Source: The Economist: It’s a smart world: A special report on smart systems, November 6, 2010

Emerging Priorities

Toward Zero Deaths and Zero Injuries

Reliable Travel

Connected Vehicles

Public Safety

Homeland Security

Sustainable Environment (e.g., zero carbon, zero fatalities, etc.)

Trip Pricing

Summary

C. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E.

Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering

Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental

Engineering

The University of Texas at Austin

301 E. Dean Keeton Street, Stop C1761

Austin, TX 78712

512-471-1414

[email protected]

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