Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
This paper has been written to gain a greater understanding of the cause and effect relationships of a theoretical nanotechnology, called a Respirocyte, on the economy. The result of this paper will give the reader a high level indication on some of the potential positive or negative effects of commercialisation of this technology, which can provide a basis for further thought on expediting or preventing certain variables over time.
Citation preview
A futurist model on the economic impact of
Respirocytes Matt Leeburn
2
CONTENTS Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 3
What is a Respirocyte? ................................................................................................................................. 3
The economic impact of Respirocytes: a Causal Loop Diagram .......................................................................... 5
Understanding the model ................................................................................................................................. 6
Behaviour over time ..................................................................................................................................... 6
Deaths from respiratory problems............................................................................................................ 6
Change in Population growth ................................................................................................................... 7
The rise and fall of Sports industries ......................................................................................................... 7
Casual relationships ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Sports and Tourism .................................................................................................................................. 8
Economic stability .................................................................................................................................... 9
Casual loops ................................................................................................................................................. 9
Balancing Loop B1 .................................................................................................................................. 10
Balancing Loops B2 – B5 ......................................................................................................................... 10
Reinforcing Loop R1 ............................................................................................................................... 11
Reinforcing Loop R2 ............................................................................................................................... 11
Policy Interventions ........................................................................................................................................ 12
Sports industry innovation ..................................................................................................................... 12
Over-population..................................................................................................................................... 12
Health care ............................................................................................................................................ 12
Pollution ................................................................................................................................................ 13
Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 14
References ..................................................................................................................................................... 15
3
INTRODUCTION This paper has been written to gain a greater understanding of the cause and effect relationships of a
theoretical nanotechnology, called a Respirocyte, on the economy. The result of this paper will give the reader
a high level indication on some of the potential positive or negative effects of commercialisation of this
technology, which can provide a basis for further thought on expediting or preventing certain variables over
time.
This paper uses a combination of Behaviour over Time graphs, Closed Loop Diagrams and Stock & Flow
diagrams to demonstrate the author’s thinking. No data has been collected or used in this paper; it is purely an
exercise in divergent and convergent thinking.
WHAT IS A RESPIROCYTE?
The Respirocyte is a theoretical nanotechnology designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr., a Senior Research Fellow at
the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing in the United States.
Respirocytes were designed to act as artificial mechanical red blood cells which can deliver 236 times more
oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity
(Freitas, R. A.).
FIGURE 1
These nanomachines (shown above) were intended to duplicate all of the important functions of the red blood
cell. The technology is also thought to be able to:
serve as a universal blood substitute
preserve living tissue
4
eliminate “the bends”
allow for new sports records; and
provide treatment for anaemia, choking, lung diseases, asphyxia, and other respiratory problems
(Freitas Jr., R A).
Although the medical applications for Respirocytes sound quite exciting, it won’t be some years before we see
them in production. This is because until nanotechnology advances greatly, we do not have the technology to
manufacture them. However, once molecular assemblers have been developed, these nanomachines could be
manufactured economically and abundantly.
5
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RESPIROCYTES: A CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM Figure 2 below displays the mental model of the economic impact of respirocytes.
FIGURE 2
6
UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL
BEHAVIOUR OVER TIME
Behaviour Over Time Graphs (BOTG) are simple diagrams to assist in demonstrating a particular pattern of
change over a period of time. These have been used to identify 3 central changes as a result of the
commercialisation and adoption of respirocytes.
DEATHS FROM RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS
FIGURE 3
The biggest impact of respirocytes to the human body will be their ability to prevent deaths caused from
respiratory conditions such as asphyxia, choking, anaemia and lung disease.
This will have a considerable impact on the growing population of the human race as it will reduce the total
death rate each year.
Deaths caused by respiratory conditions will decline significantly in line with the adoption of respirocytes as a
preventative nanomedicine.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deaths from respiratory problems
Time since technology launch
Dea
ths
7
CHANGE IN POPULATION GROWTH
FIGURE 4
As a result of declining deaths caused by respiratory conditions, the human race will consist of a much larger
population. This means that there will be more people alive to procreate, thus influencing total population
growth.
An increase in population growth creates a raft of potentially negative impacts on agriculture, housing,
employment and resources. These casual effects will be discussed further in a following section.
THE RISE AND FALL OF SPORTS INDUSTRIES
FIGURE 5
Respirocytes will give human beings a new edge. These nanomachines will enable humans to perform harder
and achieve more in a shorter amount of time.
Freitas estimates that replacing ten percent of your red blood cells with respirocytes will enable you to do an
Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath, or stay underwater for four hours. This could mean the
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deaths
Births
Time since technology launch
Net
ch
ange
in P
op
ula
tio
n
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Exisiting sports industry
Next generation sports industry
Time since technology launch
Net
ch
ange
in in
du
stry
reve
nu
es
8
end of Olympic competition as we know it. However, it would also give rise to a new form of next generation
sporting events. In order for existing sports industries to continue, they must innovate and adapt to this new
generation of transhumanism.
CASUAL RELATIONSHIPS
This model represents thinking around the casual effects on the economy post the release of respirocytes.
Some of these key cause and effect relationships are discussed following.
SPORTS AND TOURISM
FIGURE 6
As per Freitas’ estimates, humans who have been injected with the nanomachines will be able to more
efficiently manage oxygen and carbon dioxide absorption and delivery.
As a result it is believed that injected humans would no longer suffer the ‘bends’ (decompression sickness), a
condition scuba divers can get, caused by the formation of nitrogen bubbles in blood as a diver rises to the
surface (Freitas Jr., R A). This will significantly decrease diver risks and in turn make the sport much safer. As a
result of safe, easier sport, tourism spending will rise as divers explore more territories around the world.
Freitas also believes that respirocytes would create entire new records of major sports achievements. That is
because the devices can deliver oxygen to muscle tissue faster than the lungs can provide. This would mean
that kids or even asthma suffers could easily beat the current records of the world’s greatest athletes.
If this was the case, our hero’s would be shamed and our sports events would no longer have fans. Fans would
now be able to perform better in their own backyards.
Existing sport industries would decline and new types of sports will rise to meet the new demand for modified
human sports.
Respirocyte
Commercialised
ExistingSportingIndustry
Next GenSportingIndustry
Tourism
ScubaDivingSafety
Net change in
Tourism spending
Net change in Scuba
Diving Safety
S
S
Net change in Existing
Sporting Industry RevenueS
S
Net change in NextGeneration Sporting Industry
development
S
S
Net change in Existing
Sporting Industry Spending
Innovation
S
9
As expected, increased tourism would also influence pollution and tax contribution.
ECONOMIC STABILITY
FIGURE 7
By reducing deaths from respiratory related conditions, respirocytes will have a significant impact on the
economy, simply through influence on population growth.
As the death rate slows, we will begin to see a squeeze on certain areas of our economy such as agriculture,
housing, employment and resources. This is because our economy would not currently be able to handle the
sudden shift in population behaviour.
As a result of this, economic stability would crumple as each country would start to actively change their
import/exports strategies in order to sustain this new growth. Poorer countries would be violated by the
wealthier as attempts at securing land for agriculture and resources for development devastate relations and
alliances. This would create further instability in geo-political relations, thus raising the prospect of conflict or
war.
As the prospect of war grows, government spending on military and defence would increase in preparation for
potential conflict. This spending could be mistaken by neighbouring countries as an indicator of their plans,
which in turn will create further hostility.
Population growth would also impact the health care system as it would create more humans to service. This
would drive tax contributions as the government spends to manage the growth.
CASUAL LOOPS
Following are descriptions on the casual loops occurring in the Causal Loop Diagram. These are listed as
Balancing Loops (B) and Reinforcing Loops (R).
Respirocyte
Commercialised
Asphyxia
Resources
Agriculture
Housing
Jobs
Health Care
Availability
Peace
Military
Spending
Tax
Pollution
Human
Population DeathsBirths
Net change in Health
Care Availability
O
S
Net change in
Asphyxia curability
O
OS
Net change in Job
Availability
Net change in
Housing availability
Net change in
Resource availability
O
O
O
Economic
Stability Net change in
Economic Stability
SSS
Net change in
geo-political relations
S
Net change in
Agriculture Availability
O
S
Net change in
Military spending
O
Net change in
Government Spending
Net change in Tax
Contributions
SS
S
O
Net change in
Polution
S
SO
AnaemiaNet change in
Anemia curability S
O
Lung
DiseaseNet change in Lung
Disease curability
O
ChokingNet change in
Choking occurances
O
B1
R1
R2
SS
B2
B3
B4
B5
Government
PolicyNet change in
Government Policy
O
O
O
S
10
BALANCING LOOP B1
FIGURE 8
This first balancing loop shows the relationship between population growth and health care availability. As the
human population increases, health care availability decreases. As health care availability decreases, birth
rates could potentially decrease.
This could be a result of:
1. Government placing tighter controls on births until the proper infrastructure becomes available.
2. Future parents holding off on conceiving until the proper support is available to them.
3. Less access to fertility clinics to assist people with conceiving (IVF, etc).
Inversely, abortion clinics could also become less available, which would increase birth rates.
BALANCING LOOPS B2 – B5
FIGURE 9
Health Care
Availability
Human
Population DeathsBirths
Net change in Health
Care Availability
O
S
B1
Resources
Agriculture
Housing
Jobs
Human
Population DeathsBirths
Net change in Job
Availability
Net change in
Housing availability
Net change in
Resource availability
O
O
O
Economic
Stability Net change in
Economic Stability
SSS
Net change in
Agriculture Availability
O
S
S
B2
B3
B4
B5
11
As described in the Casual relationships section above, an increase of human population would have a
significant impact on the stability of the economy. An increase of humans would decrease the availability of
agriculture, resources, housing and jobs.
As a result of this, the economy will become unstable and confidence will drop in the marketplace. Media will
begin promoting doomsday content and the populations will begin to worry about their futures.
Economic destabilisation would cause people to reduce spending, work harder and “buckle down” for the bad
climate ahead. During these times of doubt it is estimated that birth rates will decline, thus creating a
balancing loop.
REINFORCING LOOP R1
FIGURE 10
The first reinforcing loop depicts a frightening cycle of ever declining, or ever rising, global economic stability
and geo-political relations. As economic stability decreases (perhaps by over-population or environmental
disaster), peace decreases. Then as peace decreases, economic stability decreases. Inversely, however, if
economic stability increases, peace increases. Then if peace increases, economic stability increases.
REINFORCING LOOP R2
FIGURE 11
The second reinforcing loop represents the reactionary caution that would be undertaken by government if
peace was in decline; military spending would increase to prepare for potential conflict. Therefore as peace
decreases, military spending increases. Then if military spending increases, peace decreases. Inversely,
however, if peace increases, military spending decreases. Then if military spending decreases, peace increases.
Peace
Economic
Stability Net change in
Economic Stability
Net change in
geo-political relations
S
S
R1
Peace
Military
Spending
Net change in
geo-political relations
Net change in
Military spending
O
O
R2
12
POLICY INTERVENTIONS
SPORTS INDUSTRY INNOVATION In order to reduce the negative impact of respirocytes on the existing sports industry, capital expenditures on
innovation and R&D must increase so that the industry can quickly learn how to adapt and compete in the next
generation of sports.
FIGURE 12
OVER-POPULATION Government policy must be introduced in order to reduce the likelihood of negative impacts on the stability of
the economy, agriculture, housing, employment, resources and health care.
This can be intervened in two ways:
1. The government could introduce a respirocyte deployment strategy so that it is slowly released into
the population, thus creating a manageable effect on population growth.
2. The government could introduce a restriction on births per couple, thus reducing the overall birth
rate.
FIGURE 13
HEALTH CARE In order to increase availability of health care, the government could increase taxes by revising their existing
tax contribution policies and budgets.
ExistingSportingIndustryNet change in Existing
Sporting Industry RevenueNet change in Existing
Sporting Industry Spending
Innovation
S
Respirocyte
Commercialised
Human
Population DeathsBirths
Government
PolicyNet change in
Government Policy
O
O
13
FIGURE 14
POLLUTION In order to counter the increase of pollution into the atmosphere, the government could introduce higher tax
contributions for larger families. This money could then be spent on offsetting the pollution through R&D in
green technologies.
FIGURE 15
Health Care
Availability
Tax
Net change in Health
Care Availability
Net change in
Government Spending
Net change in Tax
Contributions
Government
PolicyNet change in
Government Policy
S
Tax
Pollution
Net change in
Government Spending
Net change in Tax
Contributions
Net change in
Polution
S
Government
PolicyNet change in
Government Policy
O
14
SUMMARY In summary, respirocytes will cause a significant impact to the economy. It will be up to those who
commercialise this technology to understand how and when they will need to intervene, so that the impacts
do not become negative influences on the economy.
Respirocytes will disrupt the economy by seriously impacting human deaths due to respiratory conditions.
However, it is believed that this disruption could be managed by intervening with government policy on either
the release of the technology into the marketplace or by capping total births per couple.
The launch of the technology will also cause disruption to existing industries such as sports and tourism. If
managed properly, these industries could easily innovate and adapt in order to sustain revenues, jobs and
their future.
15
REFERENCES Amato, Ivan. "A U. S. Lab Opens Doors to the Nanoworld." Science. Vol. 254. 29 November 1991: 1302-1303.
Drexler, K. Eric. Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology. New York: Anchor Press / Doubleday,
1986.
Freitas Jr., R A. (2002). Respirocytes. Available: http://www.kurzweilai.net/respirocytes. Last accessed 11 April
2011.
Freitas Jr., Robert A. "Respirocytres: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical
Nanotechnology." Respirocytes: A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell. 1996-1999. Foresight Institute. 17 January
2000. <http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html>
