Upload
marat-zhanikeev
View
166
Download
6
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
A Black Swan Engine
2014/12/20
Marat Zhanikeev [email protected]
SAES@Kyutech
PDF: http://bit.do/marat141220
for Disaster Scenarios
maratishe.github.io
.
The Scenario Method
• hand-made scenarios
• region- and event-specific
• scenarios are improved via local drills
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 2/18...
2/18
.
Problems
• rare events are completely ignored
• BigData does not help -- so it is not used
• very little room for automation -- mostly manual work
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 3/18...
3/18
.
Blackswan Scenarios
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 4/18...
4/18
.
BlackSwan : The Definition
.Black Swans..
.
... are extremely rare but also extremely heavyimpact events 02
• other names: low predictability events, rare events, etc.
• BlackSwans are already defined in engineering 03 04
• BlackSwan scenarios focus on rare events
03 L.McGinty+1 "Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds" Springer LNAI vol.5650 (2009)
04 A.Nafday "Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events" Elsevier J. Structural Safety (2011)
02 N.Taleb "The black swan: the impact of highly improbable" Penguin (2008)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 5/18...
5/18
.
The BlackSwan Scenario : Basics
Occurrence Frequency
Increasing Impact
1 2
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 6/18...
6/18
.
Definitions: Events, Order
.Event .....
....can be primitive or complex (consist of other events)
Orde
r
1
2
3
Enough!
• fix a swan method is used inconstruction -- resilient design04
• the main problem is todiscover BlackSwans
04 A.Nafday "Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events" Elsevier J. Structural Safety (2011)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 7/18...
7/18
.
System Design
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 8/18...
8/18
.
BlackSwan Scenario : Specs
• create and maintain BigData• discover BlackSwans by processing BigData
• use automation as much as possible
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 9/18...
9/18
.
BlackSwan Scenario : Design• at least 3 classes of textual soup that makes events
Accident Something happened at Site A Causes Part A, Part B, Part C, … Human Factors… All Parts Part Z, Part Y, …, Human Manuals, … Rating
Blackswan scenario management platform
Storage, Database
Human judgment
Auto judgement
Report on site
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 10/18...
10/18
.
BlackSwan Discovery
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 11/18...
11/18
.
The Concept of Software Social Robotics
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 12/18...
12/18
.
BlackSwan Automation : Software
• improved Bayesian classifiers that learn via feedback• I use metromaps as visual interface 10 between human and machine
• already have/published some prototypes
10 myself+1 "On Context Management Using Metro Maps" 7th IEEE SOCA (2014)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 13/18...
13/18
.
Wrapup
• decent Disaster Relief can only happen if the BigData from previousdisasters is digested
• predictable events are easy, BlackSwans are hard• with automation, proper context management and social design it canbe done
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 14/18...
14/18
.
FAQ : Rating
• w is weight, F(v, t) is the evaluationof an event within a time window,occurrence probability (rank) then is:
Rk =∑i=1..t
wiFk(v, t), (1)
• w is a distribution (matrix math)
• potential (risk) of a given event:
Pk = |Rk,i − Rk,i−1|. (2)
• the entire blackswan scenario can beevaluated as.
E = var({Pk}). (3)
• evolution of that evaluation in time:
EVO = var({Et}). (4)
• the conventional bin packing problemcan be applied to potential (of risk):
minimize∑i=1,n
∑j=1,m
Pij. (5)
06 T.Aven "Identification of safety and security critical systems and activities" J of Rel. Eng. Sys. Safety (2009)
07 R.Kennet+1 "Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants" IBM T.J.Watson Research Chapter (2009)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 15/18...
15/18
.
FAQ : Hotpots• 4 sets: normal versus hot and baseline hot versus Flash Crowdhot
0 10 20 30 40 50List of traffic sources
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
log(
traf
fic v
olum
e)
0 10 20 30 40 50List of traffic sources
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
log(
traf
fic v
olum
e)09 myself+1 "Popularity-Based Modeling of Flash Events in Synthetic Packet Traces" CQ研 (2012)
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 16/18...
16/18
.
FAQ : Automation (1)• complexity is reduced by using humans as trainers
A very complex system
A less complex system
Tell what to do
Robot
Human
Search the space
Robot
Human
Search the space What
should I do?
Guide through feedback
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 17/18...
17/18
.
FAQ : Automation (2)
Rebot
(careless) Input
Human Human
{structure}
(pinpoint) Select
Browse (or use otherwise)
Some Knowledge
(folksonomies, knowledge bases, databases, indexes, ontologies, etc.)
(metromaps )
M.Zhanikeev -- [email protected] -- Black Swan Disaster Scenarios -- http://bit.do/marat141211 -- 18/18...
18/18