Nuevas herramientas heurísticas de gestión para

reflexionar y actuar. Planificación de escenarios

Philosophy for adaptation:The onset and continuance of climate change

over the next century requires natural resource managers to think differently about management than they have in the past.

Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as it is an scientific one.

p. 4-6 CCSP 4.4

Western Governors’ Association 2008

No action in the face of climate change

is a decision that may carry the greatest risk.

Three tenets to underpin management1) Climate patterns of the past will not be the climate

patterns of the future

2) Climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats

3) Specific management actions may help increase resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable.

Climate change effects occur in addition to contemporary resource problems

Complexity:– Interactions already occur among stressors

• Altered Disturbance Regimes• Habitat Fragmentation/Loss• Invasive Species• Pollution

Climate change will alter our ability to manage all of the above

Adapting to Climate Change: Attending to the Resources

• Identify resources and processes at risk from climate change

• Identify climate-related thresholds• Define reference conditions for

protection or restoration• Develop monitoring and assessment

programs for resources and processes at risk from climate change

Adapting to Climate Change:Attending to the Institutions

•Develop and implement management strategies for adaptation

–Diversify portfolio of management approaches–Accelerate capacity for learning–Assess, plan, and manage at multiple scales

•Let the issues define appropriate scales of time and space•Form partnerships with other organizations

–Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems –Nurture and cultivate human and natural capital

Adapting to Climate Change

• Come to Terms With Uncertainty• Incorporate Climate Change Considerations

– into Routine Operations– into Natural Resource Management

Coming to Terms with Uncertainty

• SocialUncertainty

• Scientific Uncertainty

• Resource management advances by incremental learning and gradual achievement of goals

• There are gradients between success and failure, with learning along the way

• As climate changes, even the most well-reasoned actions have some potential to go awry and lead to failure

• Protect and reward the wisdom and experience of front line managers

NPS has tried many ways to eradicate feral hogs, and failed often.

Value Social Capital

What’s a manager to do?!

“Never, ever, think outside the box.”

Scientific Uncertainty

• Foreseeable changes

• Imaginable changes

• Unknown, surprising changes

How many days/year historically were just

below freezing?

“Duration of Snowpack”More vulnerableMore vulnerableLess vulnerableLess vulnerable

Computed from UW’sVIC model daily INPUTS(Bales et al, in press)

Where will the largest (snowmelt) temperature effects occur?

Expected changes in FROZEN-SEASON LENGTH

30-60 days/year less in 2050 for ROMO

2050

Derived from monthly IPCC GCM-grid pdfs, and UW’s VIC model

daily inputs, 1950-1999

Large wildfires increased suddenly and dramatically in mid-1980s in West

• More large wildfires

• Longer wildfire durations

• Longer wildfire seasons

• Strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt

Westerling et al. 2006

Scientific Uncertainty

• Foreseeable changes

• Imaginable changes

• Unknown, surprising changes November 2006 Flood

Pacific NW

Scientific Uncertainty

• Foreseeable changes

• Imaginable changes

• Unknown, surprising changes

HIGH

LOW

CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE

AdaptiveManagement

ScenarioPlanning

OptimalControl

Hedging

Controllability

Unc

erta

inty

Approaches to Management Given Uncertainty

Optimal Control and Hedging

• Work best when uncertainty is low– Optimal Control examples: fire management, wildlife management

Elk management in ROMO may involve culling

Large woody debris replacement may improve fish habitat

• Treats management activities as hypotheses

– Accepts there is uncertainty– Emphasizes learning through experiments and management

• Most successful when there is sufficient ecological resilience to accommodate mistakes

• AND where there is institutional willingness to experiment for the purpose of learning– Requires trust, cooperation, other forms of social capital

Adaptive Management

• Brainstorming alternative, butplausible, futures

– Incorporates ideas of complexity– Assigns probabilities of occurrence– Forces consideration of low probability but high risk scenarios

• Stories informed by data and experts• Benefits from outside views and perceptions• Can be quantitative or qualitative

Scenario-Based Planning

E

High-Level Climate Change Scenario Framework

Lack of senior commitment

Varied approaches and alignment

Short-term concerns

Senior commitment

International alignment

Long-term perspectives

Widespread indifference

Competing concerns

Broad Understanding

Heightened Urgency

Nature of Leadership

Degree of Societal C

oncern

Big Problems, Big Solutions

Coordinated action around the world as climate change (and its effects on weather, resources and people) becomes seen as an increasingly

urgent and widespread challenge. Political leaders initiate bold decisions and policies to

mitigate the worst, and adapt to the inevitabilities of climate change effects

Wheel-Spinning

Despite growing scientific evidence that has convinced leaders across the world, climate change remains a remote concern for the

majority of everyday people. Consumers and businesses rail against carbon caps and prices,

claiming them to be “just another tax” imposed by the elite.

Is Anyone Out There?

To the frustration of many, climate change becomes a variable concern that is often ignored

by political and business leaders. Scientific consensus breaks down, other societal

challenges loom large, meaning that climate change is seldom on the front pages, or in the

forefront of political and business leaders’ minds

Riots and Revolution

At a time of growing social concerns and fear about the impacts of climate change,

governments and political leaders are unable to articulate a coherent set of policies and

approaches. The result? Growing public unease, and movements to overturn existing systems and

structures.

Total precip and inter-annual variability similar to historic records. Drought events/impacts intensified by increasing temperatures.

Total precip and inter-annual variability similar to historic records. Drought events/impacts intensified by increasing temperatures.

Precipitation seasonality shifts so that winter to summer ratio increases. Summer events are more intense and less frequent

Precipitation seasonality shifts so that winter to summer ratio increases. Summer events are more intense and less frequent

Precipitation seasonality, intensity, and frequency change little from historical patterns.

Precipitation seasonality, intensity, and frequency change little from historical patterns.

Base CaseIncreased ET decreases plant

productivity. Ecosystem change occurs, but overall tendency is for

change to occur more slowly than in other scenarios. Ecosystems may

have more time to adapt, but possibility of rapid change driven by

extreme events.

Novel EcosystemClimate changes quickly to something like SW U.S.

and species migration cannot keep up. SW U.S. species increase; tallgrass, northern species

decrease. Pine decreases substantially because of low regeneration, especially if crown fire occurs

(which is more likely). Water table drops; streams go from perennial to intermittent or gone. Soil erosion

increases. Many animals die off.

ShrublandShrubs and/or subshrubs replace grasses in

grassland because soil water is deeper; becomes more susceptible to annual grass (and other?)

invaders. Fate of pines and other trees uncertain. Soil erosion increases. Water table and streamflow

depend on winter precip. Faunal composition changes (e.g., browsers up, grazers down).

Shortgrass PrairieClimate like NE Colorado. Short, warm-season grasses increase, taller and cool-season grasses decrease. Forest more

restricted by moisture than currently. Megafauna capacity decreases; forage

production lower. Water table drops; spring and stream flow decreases or ceases.

Today’s “moderate”droughts become the norm and today’s “extreme”droughts become more common.

Today’s “moderate”droughts become the norm and today’s “extreme”droughts become more common.

Wind Cave National Park

HIGH

LOW

CONTROLLABLE UNCONTROLLABLE

AdaptiveManagement

ScenarioPlanning

OptimalControl

Hedging

Controllability

Unc

erta

inty

Approaches to Management Given Uncertainty

Climate Change: Coming to a Resource Near You!

Time to make a plan

Philosophy for adaptation:The onset and continuance of climate change

over the next century requires natural resource managers to think differently about management than they have in the past.

Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as it is an ecological one.

p. 4-6 CCSP 4.4

Adapting to Climate Change:

Attending to the ResourcesAttending to the Institutions

• Let scientific knowledge guide management

• Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems

• Broaden set of management approaches• Let issues, not political boundaries,

define the management scales

Adapting to Climate Change:Attending to the Institutions

•Develop and implement management strategies for adaptation

–Diversify portfolio of management approaches–Accelerate capacity for learning–Assess, plan, and manage at multiple scales

•Let the issues define appropriate scales of time and space•Form partnerships with other organizations

–Reduce other human-caused stress to ecosystems –Nurture and cultivate human and natural capital

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and

resources

A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

http://www.climatescience.gov/

STOP GLOBAL WARMING!!