International Reseach Journal,November,2010 ISSN-0975-3486 RNI: RAJBIL 2009/300097 VOL-I *ISSUE 14

67RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Research Paper—Economics

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November, 2010

Introduction Warming of the climate system is unequivocal-said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) in this latest assessment report, pointing toincreased global air and ocean temperature,widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising sealevel. The intergovernmental panel scientist found someagricultural practices, and changes in land use havebeen generating Green House Gases (GHG) like carbondioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that trapped heatand produced runaway global warming.Global Temperature In the 1880-1935 periods, the global temperatureanomaly was consistently negative. In contrast the1980-2005 periods has had a consistently positivetemperature anomaly. The 1917 temperature anomaly(-0.47° Celsius) was the lowest year on record. Since1917, global temperature has warmed, with the mostrecent years showing the highest anomalies of +0.4/0.6°Celsius in the past 120 years.According to theWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO), the1990s were the warmest decade; the 1990s were thewarmest century during the last 1,000 years. The fivewarmest years on record, in order (warmest first) are2005, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004.Vulnerabilitie By virtue of demographics,topography and geography, India is ground zero forclimate change. With over 1.13 billion people Indiahas the greatest population in the tropical, equatorialregion in which it is located – far more than westAsia’s 211 million, south-east Asia’s 554 million. Oreven all of Africa’s 922 million (United Nations 2009).India is also home to a third of the world’s poor, thepopulation that lives on less than one dollar a day,which constitutes over 40% of India’s population(Shaohuna and Ravallion 2008). The poor are the

CLIMATE CHANGE: IT’S IMPACT ON INDIA

*Dr. V.J.R. Emerlson Moses

A B S T R A C T

most vulnerable to the effects of climate change,having the least recourse from the status quo andminimal physical protection from environmentalshifts. Anomalous weather patterns such as floods,droughts, rising temperatures and heat waves, andriver recession are among the environmentalscenarios that already harm large numbers of Indians(Parikh 2009).Impact of Climate Change Worldwide it is agreed that on of the greatestchallenges to sustainable development in the 21st

century is climate change. Climate change poses aserious threat to development and poverty reductionin the poorest and most vulnerable regions of theworld. Its impact ia already being experienced acrossthe globe. The first and foremost challenge of climatechange would be the rise in the mean sea level.According to the IPCC’s fourth assessment reportthat was released on 2nd February 2007, there hasbeen acceleration in sea level since 1993. Between1961 and 2003, the sea level had increased at anaverage rate of 0.18 meters per year. But between 1993and 2003, the rate of rise had nearly doubled to 0.31meters per year. The report also predicated sea levelswould increase by up to 0.38 meters by the mid of thiscentury and 0.59 meters by the end of the 21st century.Impact on Ecosystem The primary threats of global warming is that,the ecosystem services include habitat degradationor loss, changes in biodiversity and synergisticinteractions between these factors and rapid climatechange, release of toxic substance and stratosphericozone depletion. A recent synthesis of informationabout ecosystem services from the Ecological Societyof America concluded that: Ecosystem services areessential to civilization. Ecosystem services operate

Worldwide it is agreed that on of the greatest challenges to sustainable development in the 21st centuryis climate change. Climate change poses a serious threat to development and poverty reduction in thepoorest and most vulnerable regions of the world. Its impact ia already being experienced across theglobe. The first and foremost challenge of climate change would be the rise in the mean sea level.According to the IPCC’s fourth assessment report that was released on 2nd February 2007, there hasbeen acceleration in sea level since 1993.

* Asst.Prof. P.G. & Research Dept. of Eco.,Muthurangam Govt.Arts.College,Vellore

International Reseach Journal,November,2010 ISSN-0975-3486 RNI: RAJBIL 2009/300097 VOL-I *ISSUE 14

68 RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

on such a grand scale and in such intricate and little-explored ways that most could not replaced bytechnology.Impact on Water Resources Throughout the world, regions that havesustainable groundwater balance are shrinking dayby day by the effects of global warming. Threeproblems dominate in groundwater use: depletiondue to overdraft; water logging and Stalinization duemostly to inadequate drainage and insufficientconjunctive use and pollution due to agricultural,industrial and other human activities. In regions ofIndia, especially with high population density area,dynamic tube-well-irrigated agriculture andinsufficient surface water, many consequences ofgroundwater overdevelopment are becomingincreasingly evident.Impact on Forest ResourcesIndia is one of the few countries, which has had adiversified forest. Forests are a renewable source andcontribute substantially to economic development.They play a major role in enhancing the quality ofenvironment. The total forest cover which includesdense forest, open forest and mangrove is estimatedto be 63.73 million hectares. This constitutes 19.39percent of county’s geographical area. Out of this thedense forest accounts to 11.48 percent, open forestrepresents 7.76 percent while mangrove forest 0.15percent and scribe area 1.58 percent. This has beendrastically decrease after 1999, because of threateningby the natural and droughts.Impact on Drinking waterThe watershed of the Himalayan Mountain chainprovided the ecosystem service of water filtrationand purification. Over time, this watershed systembecame overwhelmed by global warming and itincreased the runoff at the particular point thatimpaired the water quality. These problem can bereduce include flood control, air purification,generation of fertile soil and production of a range ofgoods from timber to mushrooms, as well as sites forrecreation, inspiration, education and scientificinquiry. Even acknowledging that not all ecosystemservices can be replaced by a human made substitute.Impact on Human ResourcesRecent years have shown a slowing down in thedecline in infant mortality rates in India. Child mortalityin India would drop by 20% if girls had the samemortality rate as boys between the ages of 1 monthand 5 years. The factors contributing to thisvulnerability is mainly by the wounded ecosystem.Half a million of pregnancy woman’s in a year arepremature aborted in India (Jha et al., 2006). These

numbers are alarming why women are and mirespecifically Childs, more likely to die than men’scompared, the expected reason would be the non-availability and shortage of nutritious food in changingenvironmental conditions. In future, female populationmay decrease drastically and it creates imbalance insocial or family life of traditional Indian society.Impact on Human Health Climate change would affect human health inmany ways. Warmer temperature would increase therisk of mortality from heat stress. It would also influencethe incidence of diseases like malaria, dengue, yellowfever and cholera. According to WHO, there is a potentialfor increased air pollution related morbidity and mortalityin world population due to the release of GHG. Thiscould result in 50 to 80 million additional deaths per yearworldwide by 2100. Climate change also would haveprofound effect on aquatic fauna.Impact on AgricultureThe agriculture sector represents 35% of India’s grossNational Product (GNP) and as such plays a crucialrole in the country’s development. The impact ofclimate change on agriculture could result in problemswith food security and may threaten the live hoodactivities upon which much of the populationdepends. It is widely believed that climate changecould have a significant impact upon agricultureproductivity, both positive and negative. Muchresearch effort has been spent in constructing modelsof the agricultural sector to investigate various climatechange scenarios (Parry, 1990). Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) studied theimpact of temperature rise on rice production in India.Average yields of rice in the coastal areas are less inthe interior when compared to the northern states likePunjab and Haryana. Seshu and Cady (1984) estimateda decrease in yield at the rate of 0.71 ton.ha with anincrease in minimum temperature rise from 18

æ%C to

19æ%

C and a decrease of 0.41 ton/ha as temperaturerise from 22

æ%C to 23

æ%C. There are several reasons

for varying sensitivity of yields to temperature indifferent areas (Yoshida, 1981). Indian agriculturalscientists attribute this sensitivity mainly totemperature conditions at the crop location. It isestimated that an increase of 2°C in the mean airtemperature could decrease the rice yield of about0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas and only by about0.06 ton/ha in the low yield coastal regions. Duringthe winter season, wheat is a major crop in India. Itcontributes the bulk of the grain buffer stock whichis distributed through the public distribution systemto exercise price control during adverse periods ofproduction. Any changes in wheat production,

International Reseach Journal,November,2010 ISSN-0975-3486 RNI: RAJBIL 2009/300097 VOL-I *ISSUE 14

69RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

therefore, strongly influence national food security.The crop is mostly grown in the latitudinal belt of22°N - 33°N. it is also grown between 11°N and 21°N,though productivity is low. Sinha and Swaminathan(1992) estimated that a 0.5°C increase in wintertemperature would reduce crop duration by sevendays and yield by 0.45 ton/ha. In other words, anincrease of 0.5°C in mean temperature in the high yieldstates of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh wouldreduce the production by 10% In the areas of lessproductivity will be still higher. These results,however, need further examination in the light of thepossibility of related changes in local precipitationpatterns, developments in fertilizer and pest controltechnologies, and so on. It is evident that the agricultural sector in Indiamay experience considerable adverse impacts due toan increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Theprimary causes of decreases in simulated yields arefound to be due to: (i) shortening of the growing period;(ii) the decrease in water availability; and (iii) poorvernalization (the minimum temperature requirement tostart the flowering process). Higher temperature duringthe growing season speeds annual crops through theirdevelopment (especially at the grain filling stage),allowing less grain to be produced. The rise in temperatureis also likely to result in an increase in evaporation rates,thereby enhancing losses of soil moisture. This wouldbe aggravated by any decrease in precipitation underthe climate change scenario Studies by IndianAgriculture Research Institute indicate that Indianagriculture would face many challenges over thecoming decades by climate change. Highertemperature, shifting monsoons and drier soils wouldinfluence production patterns and reduce yields offood grains such as rice and wheat. Recent Mediareports say that India is likely to be deprived of south-west monsoon in 150 years. Plant growth and healthmight get damage by higher temperature, particularlyif combined with water shortages.Impact on Food ProductionBy 2020, the food demands for India will increase byabout 70 per cent from the present, not simply on account

of increase in population, but also due to increased per

capita demand by virtue of economic growth.

Demand will go up not only in the all-

important area of cereals, but also in milk, fruits and

vegetables, animal products etc. To meet the

requirement is a stiff challenge, but it seems to be

achievable, when we able to maintain the balance

environment through Biotechnology, tissue culture

and the propagation of superior cultivars in all areas.

Impact on Food PricesAccording to the report, irrigated rice yields areexpected to fall by 15 with the climate change scenario.It noted that even without climate change, foodprocess will still raise, but that climate change willmake the problem worse. For instance, without climatechange, wheat prices will increase globally over thenext 40 years by almost 40 per cent. With climatechange, the prices will increase by up to 194 per cent.Without climate change, rice and maize are projectedto increase 60 per cent. The first of its kind, this studycombines climate models that project changes inrainfall and temperature and a crop model to capturebiophysical effects with IFPRI’s economic model ofworld agriculture.The latter projects changes in theproduction,consumption and trade of majoragricultural commodities. Impact on Food SecurityThe accentuating pressure exerted by climate changeand its likely impact is expected to affect all the fourdimensions of food security-availability, stability, use,and access.Climate drivers such as changes intemperature, precipitation, increased CO

2 levels, and

extreme weather events and socioeconomic drivers,such as increase in population, act on physicalconditions (for example, agro-ecological conditions)and socioeconomic conditions (for example, the baselinesanitation infrastructure or lack of it) to cause impactsthat manifest as one or more of the four dimensions offood security. Moreover, the impacts can be direct suchas effect of temperature on soil moisture or indirect suchas climate change,which adversely affects wateravailability for irrigation broadly depicts climate changeand food security linkages. Assessments of the impactsof climate change on food security have largely beenfocused on the ‘availability’ dimension and up to alimited extent, on the ‘access’ dimension. Very few studiesassess the impact of climate change on food ‘use’ andfood ‘stability’.Regional Climate ImpactRegional climate model projections indicate thatbesides rise in sea level and melting of mountainglaciers and polar ice caps, climate change wouldalso lead to arise powerful cyclones, hurricanes,droughts, floods, heat waves, storms, heavy rainfalland many other natural disasters which would occurmore frequently in many parts of India. According toIndia’s National Communication (NATCOM) toUNFCCC, a trend of increasing monsoon seasonalrain has been found along the west coast, northernAndhra Pradesh and north-western India (plus 10 percent to plus 12 per cent of the normal over the last 100years) while a trend of decreasing monsoon seasonal

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70 RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

1.Agence France Press(2009), “India Carbon Emissions to triple by 2030: Study”, Agence France Press, 3 September.2.Aijaz, Rumi,(2009), “Personal Interview with Rumi Aijaz”, Urban Planning Expert at the Observer Research Foundation,New Delhi, 27 July. 3.Ananthapadmanabhan, G, K Srinivas and Vinuta Gopal,(2007), “Hiding behind the Poor: A Green-peace Report on Climate Injustice”, Greenpeace India Society, October.4.Bard Edouard; Frank, Martin (2006) “ClimateChange and Solar Variability: What’s New Under the Sun?”, Earth and Planetry Science Letters, Vol: 248 pp. 1-14. 5.Barnett,Tim P.; J.C. Adam, D.P.Lettenmaier (2005) “Potential Impacts of a warming Climate on Water Aviability in Snow-dominated Regions”, Nature Journal, No: 438, PP. 303-309. 6.Chauhan, Chetan,(2007), “UN Targets Are Flawed, SaysIndia”, Hindustan Times, 27 November. 7. Cowie, J. (2007) “Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects”. CambridgeUniversity Press, p. 3. 8.Gerald C.Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard Robertson, Timothy Sulser, tingu Zhu,Claudia Ringer, Siwa msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav batka, Marilia magalhaes, Rowena valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing,and David Lee (2009), “Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Cists of Adaptation”, International Food policyResearch Institute, Wasington, D.C.9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), “Climate Change: Impacts,Adaption and Vulnerability”, (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, (UK) in press. 10.IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change), (2001), Special report on emissions scenarios, summary for policy makers Cambridge, UK: CambridgeUniv. Press.11.Macey, Jennifer (2007) “Global warming opens up Northwest Passage”, ABC News. 12. Ministry ofInformation and Broadcasting Division. Govt. of India (2006) “INDIA-2006”, Patiala House, New Delhi.13.Parikh,Jyoti,(2009),”Climate Imapct, Risk, Vulnerability and Adaption”, remarks at The Adaptive Respose to Climate Change,Global Summit on Sustainable Development and Climate change, Conference organized by the Observer ResearchFoundation and The Rose-Luxemburg Stiftung, 24 September. 14.Parry, M., (1990), “Climate Change and World Agriculture”,Earthscan, London 15. Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M.L. (1994), “Potential impact of climate change on world food supply:,Nature 367: 133-138. 16. Seshu, D.V. and cady F.B (1984), “Response of rice to solar radiation and temperature estimatedfrom international yield trials”, Crop Science 24: 649-654. 17 Shaohua, Chen and martin Ravallion (2008): “TheDeveloping World Is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty”, DevelopmentResearch group (DECRG), World Bank, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 4703. 18. Sinha, S.K. andSwaminathan, M.S. (1991), “Deforestation, climate change and sustainable nutrition security: A case study of India”,Climate Change 19: 201-209. 19. Yoshida, S. (1981), “Fundamentals of Rice Crop Science”, International Rice ResearchInstitute, Los Banos, Laguna.

R E F E R E N C E

rainfall has been observed over eastern MadyaPradesh, north-eastern India and some parts of Gujaratand Kerala (minus 6 per cent to minus 8 per cent of thenormal over the last 100 years)Changes in Temperature Changes in temperature and rainfall would bringout a change in the type of vegetarian in about 80 percent of the existing forests in the country. Suchchanges were bound to have a very significant impacton the forests and the wildlife they supported. As theIndian forests were already highly fragmented, manyspecies of plants and animals might not be able tocope with climate change and could therefore, faceextinction..Conclusion Since climate change and rising food prices

not only affect agricultural issues, but also affectbroader social, environmental, and security issues,the appropriate response should involve acombination of science, institutional, and policyinnovations. Furthermore, access to food is decreasedby climate change because lower agriculturalproductivity will increase food prices. Foodconsumption and nutrition are affected by climatechange through its effects on health and the spreadof diseases. Inadequate complementary services,such as health, education, and insurance servicesimpair the adequate response of the ultra poor tothese climate change threats Sustainable solutionsto the impact of climate change on the ultra poorrequires additional investment in these services, aswell as in capacity, science, and research.