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3D TV and OLED TV- Concept to Commerce
Lavanya Rammohan, Research AnalystElectronics
December 1, 2010
2
Focus Points
1
2
Overview
Revenue Projection
3
4
Evolution of Convergence Between Product Strategy and Commercialization5
Conclusion
7
6 Road to Reality: From Concept to Commerce
Forcefield Analysis of Drivers and Restraints
Product Life Cycle Analysis
Connected Home
8
3
Market Overview
The market for 3D TVs and OLED TVs is experiencing a slow, albeit steady growth. According to
analyst firm DisplaySearch, the 3D TV market is anticipated to reach over $17.0 billion by 2018.
A restraint for the 3D TV market is the current high price and the cost of the 3D viewing glasses.
Growth of 3D TV will rely on increased consumer awareness and confidence.
3D TVs are expected to enjoy greater proliferation beyond 2014.
The gaming market will help accelerate demand for 3D TVs.
The United States, followed by Western Europe, Japan, and South Korea will continue to be primary
early adopting regions for 3D TVs and OLED TVs.
The OLED TV market is expected to witness greater adoption rates in comparison to the 3D TV
market.
The demand for lower power consumption, reduced material usage, and simplicity is expected to
propel the OLED TV demand in the next 3-5 years.
The OLED TV market is facing challenges due to its premium price. As manufacturers’ realize
economies of scale, the average selling price is expected to decline, further spurring demand.
4
Forcefield Analysis of Drivers and Restraints
Drivers
Restrain
ts
Drivers
Restrain
ts
Denotes Long-term Impact (5-7 years)
Denotes Current Impact
Improvements in Technology And
Enhanced Viewing Experience
Increasing 3D Movie Content Strong Investment from Gaming, Especially First Person Shooters
High Cost of Products
Low Disposable Income Restrains Purchase of Expensive
Technology Lack of 3D Content Declining Prices of Competing Technologies, such as LCD etc
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Increasing Consumer Demand for Green Products Driving OLED TV
Market
Need for 3D Glasses
5
Product Life Cycle Analysis
OLED TV
MaturityDevelopment Growth
3D TV
Decline
Time
Mar
ket
Va
lue
LCD TV
3D Gaming
3D Movies
CRT TV
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Plasma TV
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Revenue Projection
20102010 2015 2017 2020 2015 2017 2020
Rev
enue
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Time
Aggressive Growth
Moderate Growth
Current Growth Rate
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
With current trends, growth is expected to be less than 35.0%.
With current trends, growth is expected to be less than 35.0%.
At a scenario of mass adoption, growth is expected to be between 65.0%-80.0%.
At a scenario of mass adoption, growth is expected to be between 65.0%-80.0%.
At moderate adoption, growth is expected to be less than 50.0%.
At moderate adoption, growth is expected to be less than 50.0%.
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Revenue Projection (Contd.)
Source: Frost & Sullivan: Stratecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Years
Sh
ipm
ents
(m
illi
on
s)
Minimum Shipments Average Shipments Optimistic Shipments
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Evolution of Convergence Between Product Strategy and Commercialization
2015Mass
Adoption of 3D TV and OLED TV
Pro
du
ct
St r
ateg
ies
Val
ue
Cr e
ati n
g
So
l uti
on
s
Deliver more 3D content, value adding accessories, decrease environmental
footprint, wired for integrated and connected communication
Generate revenues and continually create sustainable demand, constantly
improve resources2010
Adoption Gap
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
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Road to Reality: From Concept to Commerce
• Reduction in price
• Superior product performance
• Dissemination of customer awareness
• Reduce environmental footprint
• Develop complimentary accessories that have value propositions as part of the technology offering
• Innovate to overcome the challenge of cumbersome 3D glasses
• Develop 3D content to ensure viability of the innovation and justify cost of ownership
• Strategic alliances for sharing expertise
• Mass production and mass adoption
• Ensure interoperability between products- leading innovation for connected TV
Creating Value Vision 2015Intermediary Trends
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Short Term Horizon Middle Horizon Long Term Horizon
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Connected Home
Source: Images.google.ca
Safety
Gas and Smoke Detection, Fire Detection, Leak Detection, Notification Systems
Security
Intrusion Detection, Remote Audio/Video Surveillance, Access Control, Camera Systems
Health
Health/Medical Alert Systems, Health/Medical/Fitness Records Vaults, Patient Monitoring
Energy Management
Lighting Control and Automation, Zone and Climate Controls, Plug-in Systems, Fan Speed Controls, Load Shedding Systems, Smart Metering and Grid Connected Controls
Home Controls and Automation
HVAC and Temperature Controls, Day lighting Systems, Drapery Controls, Multi-room Controls/Intercoms, Touch-screens, Irrigation Controls, Pool and Spa Controls, Appliance Controls
Monitoring
Alarm Monitoring, Remote Home Monitoring
Entertainment
Audio and Volume Controls, Multi-media Room Controls, Home Theater/Entertainment System Controls, IPTV, Digital Video Recorders and Set Top boxes, Gaming Controls
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Conclusion
Declining Prices of 3D and OLED
TVs
Increasing Consumer Awareness
Continuous Innovation for 3D Active Glass-less
Technology
Sales of Additional 3D Glasses
Establishment of Quality 3D
Programming
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Short Term TrendMedium – Long Term Trend
Continuous “Greening” of FPDs
will Engender OLED TV Demand
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For Additional Information
Sarah SaatzerCorporate Communications(210) [email protected]
Kiran UnniSales Manager(210) [email protected]
Keith RobinsonResearch ManagerElectronics(210) [email protected]
