Measuring the Impact of Google Secure Search

By Mike Dobbs, Group Director of SEO and Martha Mukangara, Search Analytics Consultant at 360i

Executive Summary

Last October, Google announced that it would make secure search (SSL) the default setting for all users

logged in to their Google accounts. With secure search, a person’s search terms cannot be tracked by

the third-party technologies that marketers have come to rely on to determine how natural search terms

drive actions within websites.

This shift to an encrypted search model drastically impacts marketers’ ability to see details about the

origin of natural traffic at the keyword level. As a consequence, tools such as Google Analytics,

Coremetrics and Omniture are losing the ability to track the performance of some keywords, thus losing

a share of data previously used to inform SEO strategy.

Change AgentChange AgentChange AgentChange Agent:::: Google’s decision to set secure search as a default for all logged in users has reduced the number of trackable search queries to domains by nearly 20 percent since October.

ChallengesChallengesChallengesChallenges:::: As Google claims the bulk of natural traffic for most sites, increasing the visibility of hidden query information is critical to leveraging the correct optimization tactics.

Marketing ImpactMarketing ImpactMarketing ImpactMarketing Impact:::: Marketers will need to evolve their approach to keyword discovery and tap into other marketing channels such as paid media to compensate for lost data.

Next StepNext StepNext StepNext Step:::: Marketers will want to study the impact of secure searches on Google traffic to their domains and use the recommendations in this report to compensate for hidden keywords.

At the time of the announcement, Google estimated that encrypted searches would comprise less than

10 percent of all organic search queries. However, a 360i analysis found that this figure is larger than the

engine anticipated. Our study of searches across a range of industries and browsers demonstrates that

nearly 20 percent of Google searches are becoming untraceable by marketers. By 2013, this number

could rise to 30 percent as Mozilla will soon make secure search its default setting for Google users.

This report assesses the impact of Google’s encrypted searches and provides recommendations for how

marketers can navigate the change. The findings are informed by 360i’s analysis of natural traffic for

several retail and service companies monitored through IgnitionOne, a leading digital marketing suite.

High Level Findings

360i analyzed the effect of Google’s announcement across a sample of marketers. We found that by

making secure search the default for all logged in users, Google has created a data loss of nearly 20

percent. This means that marketers were unable to track a substantial portion of natural search traffic

driving actions within their sites.

Our analysis showed that the impact varied by industry and browser:

o Industry trendsIndustry trendsIndustry trendsIndustry trends: Overall, websites for service-oriented businesses (i.e. tax preparation services

and insurance agencies) were impacted more than retailer websites.

o Browser trendsBrowser trendsBrowser trendsBrowser trends: The change impacted Google searches occurring within Chrome the most.

Before October, Chrome encrypted just 0.01 percent of searches on average; after, more than

30 percent of the keyword information was hidden to tracking tools. For searches conducted

within Safari and Internet Explorer, about 10 percent of the data was no longer traceable

following the update.

Several months after the announcement, we witnessed a plateau in the overall share of Google

encrypted searches across retail and service industries – which have since stabilized. Today, close to 20

percent of keyword information remains hidden, with service domains continuing to collect the most

encrypted queries.

We predict that close to 30 percent of all Google natural search traffic will be hidden across retail and

service domains after the default search encryption is released to Mozilla Firefox users. This is expected

to happen by the end of 2012.

Approach

Our analysis contains three phases spanning 270 days. The "Before" phase spans 90 days prior to

Google's Oct. 18 announcement; the "During" phase covers 90 days immediately following Oct.18 and

the "Post" phase looks at 90 days after the "During" phase.

To inform this report, we researched Google natural traffic and encrypted referrals by industry (retail and

service). In addition, we studied Google encrypted search queries across top browsers such as Chrome,

Firefox, Internet Explorer and Safari.

Detailed Findings

Before Google defaulted to secure searches, just 0.1 percent of natural search traffic across service

oriented and retailer websites was secure, or

percent across the Google announcement peri

percent estimate.

SHARE OF GOOGLE ENCR

Overall, Safari and Internet Explorer were the least affected browsers. About 30 percent of total Google

natural traffic analyzed during the 270 days came from Safari, which remains the least impacted browser

to date.

The impact across service and retail industries varied during the announcement phase. Secure searches

for service sites soared to 18 percent on average during

searches were 0.05 percent on average

Prior to the announcement, secure searches for retail domains were 0.07 percent on average.

90 days following the announcement, this figur

service domains but still 2 percent greater than the Google

Approximately 15 percent of Google Revenue and Orders for one of the analyzed Retail domains were

encrypted during the announcement period. After the announcement period, Revenue and Orders

attributed to encrypted keywords increased

their SEO strategy, the inability to track

challenge.

Firefox, Internet Explorer and Safari.

ed Findings

to secure searches, just 0.1 percent of natural search traffic across service

oriented and retailer websites was secure, or not trackable by marketers. That figure soared to 13

percent across the Google announcement period in October –3 percent higher than Google’s 10

SHARE OF GOOGLE ENCRYPTED SEARCHES – RETAIL & SERVICE INDUSTRIES

Overall, Safari and Internet Explorer were the least affected browsers. About 30 percent of total Google

analyzed during the 270 days came from Safari, which remains the least impacted browser

The impact across service and retail industries varied during the announcement phase. Secure searches

for service sites soared to 18 percent on average during this window. Before the announcement, secure

searches were 0.05 percent on average for service websites.

Prior to the announcement, secure searches for retail domains were 0.07 percent on average.

ollowing the announcement, this figure jumped to nearly 12 percent – less than the average for

service domains but still 2 percent greater than the Google estimate.

Approximately 15 percent of Google Revenue and Orders for one of the analyzed Retail domains were

ent period. After the announcement period, Revenue and Orders

attributed to encrypted keywords increased to 20 percent. For retailers that rely on this data to inform

their SEO strategy, the inability to track a fifth of natural keyword referrals creates a very significant

to secure searches, just 0.1 percent of natural search traffic across service-

That figure soared to 13

3 percent higher than Google’s 10

USTRIES

Overall, Safari and Internet Explorer were the least affected browsers. About 30 percent of total Google

analyzed during the 270 days came from Safari, which remains the least impacted browser

The impact across service and retail industries varied during the announcement phase. Secure searches

this window. Before the announcement, secure

Prior to the announcement, secure searches for retail domains were 0.07 percent on average. During the

less than the average for

Approximately 15 percent of Google Revenue and Orders for one of the analyzed Retail domains were

ent period. After the announcement period, Revenue and Orders

percent. For retailers that rely on this data to inform

very significant

For example, in examining one retail client, we noted that its top 100 non-brand, non-seasonal keywords

saw a 5.5 percent drop in Google natural traffic following the change. Although the shift in search

patterns between encrypted and unencrypted searchers is still manageable, additional monitoring is

required to establish the threshold where unencrypted Google keyword information will become

insignificant.

Impact by Browser Below is a snapshot of the percent share of total encrypted searches by browser during the 270 day

research period.

o Chrome - 34.8%34.8%34.8%34.8%

o Firefox - 21.7%21.7%21.7%21.7%

o Internet Explorer - 7.9%7.9%7.9%7.9%

o Safari - 1.7%1.7%1.7%1.7%

As expected, major browsers saw an increase in encrypted searches during the announcement window,

with Chrome surpassing the rest with nearly 32 percent of its searches hidden on average across retail

and service domains. Chrome had the lowest number before the change (less than 0.001 percent). This

stark increase can be attributed to the fact that the browser is a Google product.

Post-announcement share of encrypted searches increased across Chrome, Firefox and Internet Explorer

while Safari encrypted searches dropped by 4 percent. Of the four browsers, Safari’s share remained

below 1 percent on average before and after the announcement. During the announcement, the share

of Safari encrypted searches rose to 4.25 percent on average.

Given the prevalent use of Firefox and its intent to test default Google search encryption, we predict

that the share of Google Secure Searches on Firefox will rise considerably over the next few months –

with most of the impact occurring across retail domains.

Next Steps for Marketers

Since keyword research is essential to any SEO program, monitoring which keywords are generating

visits to a site remains a critical exercise. In light of this trend in secure search, it becomes increasingly

important for marketers to accurately report on top traffic-driving keywords, particularly Google non-

brand terms and top converters. Below are some strategies for marketers to consider when

compensating for hidden keywords caused by secure search:

1. Run paid and natural campaigns simultaneously.Run paid and natural campaigns simultaneously.Run paid and natural campaigns simultaneously.Run paid and natural campaigns simultaneously. Consider paid performance and conduct

long-tail keyword ad tests to gain insights that will power your natural optimization efforts. In

analyzing natural visits, terms that historically maintained a consistent flow of traffic to a retail site

had a significant increase in encrypted information during and after the announcement as traffic

from keywords labeled “Search Phrase Not Provided” spiked. For example, non-seasonal curtain

variants such as “curtain rods”, “door panel curtains,” “sheer curtain panels” and “beaded

curtains” reportedly drove less site traffic foll

the table below. This was due to a widespread data loss across all keywords driving to that

domain from within Google Search.

NATURAL VISITORS

In this example, a deep dive into the domain’s paid search performance gave us insight into

additional keyword variations used to gain access to the site through paid search during the

same period. Popular exact match variants for the term “sheer curtain panels” in paid sear

include a trimmed down variation: “curtains sheers”; and detailed variants such as “semi sheer

curtains” and “yellow sheer curtains

Keyword

sheer curtains

door panel curtains

shower curtain rods

shower curtain rod

shower rods

curtain sheers

curved shower rod

beaded curtain

chi hair products

double shower curtain rod

semi-sheer curtains

shower rod

chi products

yellow sheer curtains

curtains and draperies

discount curtain panels

variants such as “curtain rods”, “door panel curtains,” “sheer curtain panels” and “beaded

curtains” reportedly drove less site traffic following the announcement period, as illustrated in

the table below. This was due to a widespread data loss across all keywords driving to that

domain from within Google Search.

NATURAL VISITORS TO RETAILER WEBSITE VIA SELECT KEYWORDS

deep dive into the domain’s paid search performance gave us insight into

additional keyword variations used to gain access to the site through paid search during the

same period. Popular exact match variants for the term “sheer curtain panels” in paid sear

include a trimmed down variation: “curtains sheers”; and detailed variants such as “semi sheer

curtains” and “yellow sheer curtains,” as illustrated below.

Clicks Orders Revenue Cost Avg.

38.5% 45% 58.0% 41.4% 2

9.7% 10% 4.7% 10.2% 1

7.7% 7% 5.7% 6.5% 4

7.1% 4% 3.4% 6.6% 3

5.6% 3% 1.7% 3.9% 3

3.9% 4% 4.1% 4.8% 1

3.8% 2% 2.0% 3.9% 3

3.4% 2% 1.1% 2.6% 3

3.2% 2% 1.6% 2.5% 3

double shower curtain rod 2.8% 5% 2.8% 2.3% 2

2.6% 4% 6.5% 3.5% 1

2.2% 3% 1.5% 1.8% 3

2.1% 1% 2.0% 1.3% 2

1.7% 3% 0.8% 1.6% 1

draperies 1.6% 2% 1.8% 2.2% 1

discount curtain panels 1.0% 2% 1.5% 1.4% 1

variants such as “curtain rods”, “door panel curtains,” “sheer curtain panels” and “beaded

owing the announcement period, as illustrated in

the table below. This was due to a widespread data loss across all keywords driving to that

EYWORDS

deep dive into the domain’s paid search performance gave us insight into

additional keyword variations used to gain access to the site through paid search during the

same period. Popular exact match variants for the term “sheer curtain panels” in paid search

include a trimmed down variation: “curtains sheers”; and detailed variants such as “semi sheer

Rank

2

1

4

3

3

1

3

3

3

2

1

3

2

1

1

1

Marketers should therefore run paid search (AdWords) and SEO campaigns simultaneously,

tracking keyword attribution to discover additional keyword variations that will not only deliver

traffic to the site, but convert as well.

2. Use Webmaster Tools to access reports about your pages’ visibility within Google.Use Webmaster Tools to access reports about your pages’ visibility within Google.Use Webmaster Tools to access reports about your pages’ visibility within Google.Use Webmaster Tools to access reports about your pages’ visibility within Google. Monitor

the top 1,000 search queries that drive traffic (Clicks or Impressions) from Google Webmaster

Tools and use them for lead generation. Grouping terms into Broad (one keyword phrase), Torso

(two to three keyword phrases) or Long-tail (four or more keyword phrases) buckets will help

identify the most popular variants, especially in non-brand, long-tail queries. Use the most

keyword-dense variants within the top queries to expand on keyword variations.

3. Supplement thirdSupplement thirdSupplement thirdSupplement third----party analytics tools with additional data.party analytics tools with additional data.party analytics tools with additional data.party analytics tools with additional data. Use Hitwise, comScore and

similar tools to monitor competitor or industry performance. Use additional resources to explore

both organic and paid search trends for your site to continuously identify the most opportune

words or keyword phrases that you might be tracking in your campaign. Some of these tools are

listed below.

a. Competitive analysis tools, such as Google Insights for Search and AdGooroo, can be

used to compare search patterns across different regions, categories, time frames,

properties and competitor keywords.

b. Quantitative market research tools, such as Google Consumer Surveys, can be used to

glean additional market insights.

c. Search demographics can uncover usability patterns across audiences and identify high

value keywords that will attract qualified traffic to your site.

4. Consider search beyond the PC.Consider search beyond the PC.Consider search beyond the PC.Consider search beyond the PC. Mobile searchers have different behaviors and motivations

than PC users since they are normally on the go. By next December, smart mobile devices will

account for 25 percent of all paid search ad clicks within Google (source: Marin). The ever-

growing adoption of smart phones, tablets and other connected devices means that non-PC

traffic now comprises significant share of overall searches.

Mobile long-tail searches can provide valuable intelligence into what searchers are looking for,

such as intent, desires and needs beyond simply information pertaining to location. Moreover,

mobile users are more prone to clicking paid ads, as those appear closer to the top due to the

small screen size of mobile devices. Marketers can leverage these insights to power the keyword

discovery process, as well.

- Published July 2012

About 360i

360i is an award-winning digital marketing agency that drives results for Fortune 500 marketers through

insights, ideas and technologies. 360i helps its clients think differently about their online presence and

evolve their strategies to take advantage of the new world of marketing communications

brands and consumers engage in interactive and mul

named 360i to its prestigious Agency A

NBC Universal and Diageo, among others. For more information, please visit

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winning digital marketing agency that drives results for Fortune 500 marketers through

insights, ideas and technologies. 360i helps its clients think differently about their online presence and

evolve their strategies to take advantage of the new world of marketing communications

brands and consumers engage in interactive and multi-directional conversations. In 2010, Ad Age

named 360i to its prestigious Agency A-List. Current clients include Kraft Foods, JCPenney, Coca

NBC Universal and Diageo, among others. For more information, please visit http://www.360i.com

o Connect With 360i

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winning digital marketing agency that drives results for Fortune 500 marketers through

insights, ideas and technologies. 360i helps its clients think differently about their online presence and

evolve their strategies to take advantage of the new world of marketing communications – one where

directional conversations. In 2010, Ad Age

List. Current clients include Kraft Foods, JCPenney, Coca-Cola,

http://www.360i.com or

editor@360i.com