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Climate Change Exacerbates RainRelated Disease Risk Michael Timm Science Communica<on Specialist Center for Water Policy School of Freshwater Sciences University of WisconsinMilwaukee ma<[email protected] c. 414.378.0945

2013 HOW Conference: Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-Related Disease Risk

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Learn more about the stormwater impacts to public health, get engaged about the stormwater impacts to public health, get exposed to recent research documenting diarrhea-causing viruses in drinking water, and get imaginative about how to communicate the risks posed by waterborne disease to the public and policymakers. View a dynamic diorama that dramatizes the perfect storm that results when our aging underground infrastructure meets climate change. This presentation was given by Michael Timm, Science Communications Specialist, Center for Water Policy, University of Wisconsin- Milwaukee School of Freshwater Sciences.

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Page 1: 2013 HOW Conference: Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-Related Disease Risk

Climate  Change  Exacerbates    Rain-­‐Related  Disease  Risk  

Michael  Timm  Science  Communica<on  Specialist  Center  for  Water  Policy  School  of  Freshwater  Sciences  University  of  Wisconsin-­‐Milwaukee  ma<[email protected]  c.  414.378.0945  

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Climate  Change  Exacerbates    Rain-­‐Related  Disease  Risk  

Michael  Campbell  COO  &  Senior  Vice  President  Ruekert/Mielke  Inc.,  Consul<ng  Engineers    mcampbell@ruekert-­‐mielke.com  

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Audience:  Who  are  you?  •  NGOs?  •  Engineers?  •  Legislators?  •  Policymakers?  •  Scien<sts?  •  Students?  •  Public  Health  Officers?  •  Others?  

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The  Problem:  Rain-­‐related  Disease  Risk  

Stormwater  

Climate  Change  

Waterborne  Disease  

Failing  Infrastructure  

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Policy  Solu<ons:  Rain-­‐related  Disease  Risk  

Reduce  Health  Risk  

Disinfect  Public  Wells  

Statewide  Stormwater  Standards  

Incen<vize  Private  

Sewer  Repair  

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I.  Climate  Change  

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Energizing  storms  &  loading  the  dice  

Adapted  from  Trenberth  1999  

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>?<  

Historical  2”  24-­‐hr  storm  events  per  decade  for  southern  Wisconsin  

Green  Bay  Packers  playoff  appearances  2000-­‐2010  

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12                          13  

Historical  2”  24-­‐hr  storm  events  per  decade  for  southern  Wisconsin  

Green  Bay  Packers  playoff  appearances  2000-­‐2010  

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Downscaled  models  by  WICCI  

WICCI  2011  

Significant  increase  in  intense  storm  frequency  by  2055  

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increase  in  intense  storm  frequency  

25%  Historical   Expected  by  2055  

WICCI  2011  

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increase  in  storm  intensity  10-­‐40%  

Historical   Expected  by  2055  

WICCI  2011  

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More  storms  for  warmer  Wisconsin  

Historical  

Expected  by  2055  

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Historically,  Wisconsin  is  weger  in  some  areas  and  drier  in  others.  Drier  areas  may  face  added  stormwater  burden.  

NOAA  

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Historically  we’ve  already  been  geing  warmer  and  weger  

Data  from  1950  to  2006:  •  Nighime  lows  temps  up  ~1-­‐4°F  •  Average  annual  day<me  highs  up  ~0.5-­‐1°F  

•  Southern  precipita<on  increased  by  ~2-­‐4”  

•  Northern  precipita<on  decreased  by  ~1-­‐2”   10-­‐15%  

Kucharik  et  al.  2010  

Rainfall  over  S.  Wis.  

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The  past  is  no  longer  an  adequate  guide    

1950  ≠  2006    

Shioing  trends  mean  our  pipes  were  not  designed  or  constructed  to  convey  

actual  or  expected  flows  

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•  90  million  gallons  of  sewage  overflows  at  61  communi<es  •  700  drinking  water  wells  contaminated  •  $34  million  in  damage  claims  paid  

Slide  courtesy  of  David  Liebl,  WICCI  

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Credit:  WICCI;  UW-­‐Extension  -­‐  David  S.  Liebl  and  Bill  Bland    

Reedsburg  2008  Baraboo  River  Flooding  

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II.  Waterborne  Disease  

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>?<  

%  of  U.S.  waterborne  disease  outbreaks  (1948-­‐1994)  preceded  by  top  20%  of  most  intense  storms  

Breg  Favre’s  winning  percentage  (games  won  /  total  played)  

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68%                      63%  186  wins  &  112  loses  Curriero  et  al.  2001  

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Waterborne  Disease  in  U.S.  

•  More  than  half  of  U.S.  waterborne  disease  outbreaks  followed  heavy  storms    

•  Contaminated  water  is  responsible  for  between  6%  and  40%  of  diarrhea-­‐related  illness  

•  Remember  Crypto?  – 403,000  sick  – 69  dead  – $96  million  costs  to  society  – $406  million  in  public  investment  as  cure  

Curriero  et  al.  2001;  Gaffield  et  al.  2003;  Corso  et  al.  2003      

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Acute  Diarrhea  (AGI)  

•  10%  of  U.S.  hospital  admissions  •  300  U.S.  kids’  deaths  per  year  •  $1  billion  in  annual  costs  to  U.S.  society  

•  Biggest  concern  is  for  kids  age  5  and  under  – Less  immunity  – Smaller  body  size  – More  complica<ons   Elliot  2007  

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Rela<onship  between  rain  &  diarrhea  

•  11%  increase  in  AGI  ER  visits  for  kids  four  days  aoer  rainfall  (2002-­‐2007  Children’s  Hospital)  

•  Associated  with  rain,  not  overflows  •  Probably  underes<mates  disease  incidence  •  These  kids  were  primarily  served  by  surface  waters,  but  highlights  role  of  rain  in  transpor<ng  pathogens  

•  Pathway/s  not  iden<fied  in  this  study  Drayna  et  al.  2010  

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Kids  seem  to  be  geing  more  sick  from  well  water  than  surface  water  

•  Another  Children’s  Hospital  study  •  Top  3  illness  risk  factors  in  order  of  odds  

ra<os:  –  Ill  contacts  in  the  home  (2.52)  – Well  water  (1.38)  – Primarily  bogled  water  (1.27)  

Gorelick  et  al.  2011  

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Viruses  in  Wisconsin  groundwater  •  Diarrhea  linked  with  sep<c  tank  proximity  in  central  Wisconsin  (Marshfield)  – Risk  for  viral  diarrhea  increased  8%  per  addi<onal  holding  tank  per  sec<on  

•  Viruses  in  pre-­‐treated  drinking  water  from  groundwater,  with  sources  both  from  river  and  elsewhere  (La  Crosse)  

•  Tap  water  from  14  of  14  non-­‐disinfec<ng  communi<es  tested  posi<ve  for  viruses  Borchardt  et  al.  2003;  Borchardt  et  al.  2004;  Borchardt  et  al.  2012  

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2011  Wis.  Act  19  leaves  some  60  communi<es  vulnerable  by  not  requiring  municipal  well  disinfec<on.    ~65,000  people  (1.1%  of  Wis.  pop)  and  about  4,000  kids  under  age  5    

Seeley  in  Wisconsin  State  Journal,  2012  

U.S.  Census  Bureau  

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That’s  just  municipal  systems  

•  Popula<on  served  by  non-­‐community  public  water  systems*  and  private  wells  is  ~1.65  million  (28%  of  state  popula<on)  

 *Public  non-­‐municipal  systems  include  sites  like  mobile  home  parks,  hotels,  churches,  schools,  etc.  

Source:  Jeff  Helmuth  

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Viruses  in  deep  Madison  groundwater  

Bradbury  et  al.  2013  

How  are  they  geing  there?  

Data  from  six  wells  from  2007  to  2009    

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•  Leaky  sanitary  sewer  pipes  implicated,  transported  by  recharge  from  heavy  rains  

Bradbury  et  al.  2013  

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III.  Failing  Infrastructure  

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>?<  Length  of  pipe  under  America  

Dwight  Burdege   NASA  

Distance  from  Earth  to  Moon  

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>  13  billion  feet  

Dwight  Burdege   NASA  

1.3  billion  feet  

42  feet  of  pipe  per  capita  

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Leaky  pipes  

•  Old  sewer  pipes  leak,  pathogens  get  out,  especially  when  hydrology  is  conducive,  e.g.  when  stormwater  changes  the  game  

•  Old  water  mains  break  (1  per  10  miles  per  year  or  ~800/day),  allowing  viruses  to  seep  into  municipal  distribu<on  systems  

 American  Water  Works  Associa<on  2012;  Folkman  2012  

Laid   Lifespan   Replacement  1880s   90-­‐150  yrs   1970s-­‐2030s  1920s   100  yrs   2020s  1950s+   75  yrs   2025+  

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Systemic  Vulnerability    •  Even  with  best  treatment,  if  the  distribu<on  system  is  vulnerable,  then  we  remain  at  risk  

•  Proximity  of  water  and  sanitary  pipes:  WI:  8o;  other  states,  10o;  in  reality  there  is  likely  communica<on  when  groundwater  tables  rise  under  heavy  recharge  &  stormwater  flows  

•  Remember  those  14  non-­‐disinfected  communi<es?  The  distribuGon  system  was  implicated  as  the  entry  point  for  viruses  from  sewage.    

Lamber<ni  et  al.  2012  

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Wisconsin  budget  priori<es  •  $94  million  in  low-­‐interest  loans  for  drinking  water  infrastructure  (short  of  projected  20-­‐yr  need  by  a  lot)  

•  State  highways  get  $3.6  billion  over  2  years  

Wisconsin’s  es<mated  20-­‐yr  needs    •  $2.5  billion  for  treatment  upgrades  

•  $3.5  billion  for  distribu<on  upgrades  U.S.  EPA  2007  

Wis  2013  Act  20  

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Milwaukee  Metropolitan  Sewerage  District  

Then  there  are  leaky  laterals…  

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Sta<c  &  Dynamic  Dioramas  

Credit:  Michael  Campbell    

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MMSD  video  on  I/I  problem  

•  hgp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tA7HCFF23c&list=UUe19V3fMPZ0Q9LAvv4X0SQg&index=14  

MMSD  Cue  up  <me  index  1:24  –  3:46  

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IV.  Policy  Recommenda<ons    

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Policy  Priori<es  

•  Inventory  state’s  sewer  and  water  infrastructure  vulnerabili<es.  

• Disinfect  all  public  municipal  wells.  

• Codify  comprehensive  statewide  stormwater  design  standards.  

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For  example:  ATCP  48.26  

•  DRAINAGE  CAPACITY.  Every  district  drain  constructed  aoer  July  1,  1995  shall  be  designed  and  constructed  so  that  it  is  capable  of  removing  the  volume  of  water  from  a  10-­‐year  24-­‐hour  rainfall  event  within  48  hours  aoer  that  rainfall  event.  For  each  county,  a  10-­‐year  24-­‐hour  rainfall  event  is  the  amount  of  rain  shown  in  table  1  falling  in  24  hours.  

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Funding  Priori<es  

•  Invest  $3.5  billion  through  2027  to  bring  Wisconsin’s  aging  underground  infrastructure  up  to  date.  

 

• The  state  should  assist  municipali<es  in  incen<vizing  the  replacement  of  privately-­‐owned  sewer  laterals.  

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For  example:  Lateral  Replacement  Incen<ves  

•  When  the  city  rips  up  the  street  •  Madison  offers  75%  of  lateral  replacement  costs  from  main  up  to  property  line  

•  Marshfield  forgives  replacement  costs  of  lateral  under  public  right-­‐of-­‐way  if  private  replaced  

•  90%  par<cipa<on  w/  opt-­‐out  default  

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Research  Priori<es  

• Research  human  health  risks  of  stormwater  vs.  sewage  overflows.  

 

• Access  broader  health  data  sets  to  clarify  rela<onships  between  rainfall  and  disease.  

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Out-­‐of-­‐box  Solu<ons?  

•  Green  infrastructure  to  promote  infiltra<on  

•  Waterless  toilet  infrastructure  a  la  Gates  Founda<on  Challenge  in  2012  

•  Remapping  ci<es  and  towns  to  account  for  hydrology  instead  of  history  

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Where’s  Our  Water?  Out  of  sight,  but  not  out  of  mind  

Where’s  My  Water’s  lovable  alligator,  Swampy,  knows  a  thing  or  two  about  failing  pipes  

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Where’s  My  Water?  app  •  Instant  gra<fica<on  •  Addic<ve  memes  •  Widely  disseminated  •  Youth  oriented  •  Makes  hidden  visible  •  Puts  face  to  issue  

Use  as  communicaGon  tool  to  reach  your  consGtuencies  

hgp://www.flashgamesplayer.com/Free/Where-­‐is-­‐my-­‐Water/Play.html  

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Thank  you!  Michael  Campbell  

Jenny  Kehl  Megan  Christenson  Sandra  McLellan  

Larry  Timm  Michael  Carvan  David  Liebl  Jeff  Helmuth  

Henry  “Andy”  Anderson  Kristen  Malecki  Jonathan  Patz  

Deb  Dila  

Randy  Metzger  Greg  Barske  

Tomorra  Smith  Madeline  Gotkowitz  Marc  Borchardt  

Jen  Yauck  Cheryl  Nenn  

MMSD  CDC  WDPH  

UWM  SFS  CWP  WICCI  

Healing  Our  Waters  –  Milwaukee,  Wisconsin  –  2013    

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Climate  Change  Exacerbates    Rain-­‐Related  Disease  Risk  

Policy  Briefs  hgp://home.freshwater.uwm.edu/mclellanlab/736-­‐2/    

Contact  ma<[email protected]  

mcampbell@ruekert-­‐mielke.com