Transition to a sustainable society:challenge of the century

Arnhem, 24 october 2011

Prof.dr.ir. Jan Rotmans

www.twitter.com/janrotmans

Transitional Times

20 - 30 years

Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase20 – 30 years

Transition to a sustainable society

”Widespread application of new paradigms

Distribution and diffusion of societal advantagesTip

ping P

oint

Battle between old and new paradigmBuild up and decay of institutions

energy

Time

We are here

Consolidatiion

transport

water

health care

agriculture

Indications for Tipping Point

semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis

unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche

looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels

climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods

scarcity of materials and minerals

Multi-level sustainability assessmentMacro-level+ scarcity of fossil resources+ energy security+ climate change+ financial-economic crisis

Meso-level+/- Copenhagen treaty+ WBC Sustain. Dev.+/- EU-energy policy+ regional and city plans

Micro-level+ decentral production+ solar- and wind energy+ local energy cooperations+ pioneers and entrepreneurs

crisis from a transition perspective

Current crisis is a systems crisis

financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis

energy crisis and climate crisis yet to come

systems crisis is deeply rooted in

production & consumption exhaustion of natural resources

only transformative change will help

Transition

fundamental change of structure, culture, practices

structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructureculture: collective set of values, paradigmspractices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling

fundamentals shift in thinkin & acting at the systems level

means to achieve a sustainable society

Examples of transitions

internetfrom physical to virtual

water transitionfrom stemming water to accomodating water

energy transitionfrom fossil energy to sustainable energy supply

health care transitionfrom bureaucratic health care to human care

Paradigm Shift

old worldview new worldview

exploitation model co-operation model

economic profit societal profit

linear processes cycles

deriving values creating values

individual-driven community-driven

Transition to Sustainable Society

quest to new values from to

welfare happinessexploitation cooperationlinear cyclicalcentral decentralhierarchy networksindividuals communitiescontrol adjustdirecting facilitating

Transition = Power shift

regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests

niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at smaller scale level

niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that mighttake over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defendits existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime

transition = regime-shift = power shift

Global Power Struggle

Obama

“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy-economy will become the country that will dominate the world economy and America must be that country ”

Sustainable Trends

global economy arises around clean techsustainable energy, biobased chemical industrysustainable water technology, sustainable waste disposal

fastest growing industry in the world

2010: 250 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2009)

China 55 billion Germany 42 billionUnited States 35 billionItaly 17 billion

Netherlands 3 billion

Global Sustainable Economy

China invests coming 5 years 235 billion euro in clean technology

VW invests 1 billion in sustainable energy (windmill park, hydropower station)

Unilever wants to cut footprint by 50% in 10 years

German national bank: 100 billion for sustainable energy

green revolution unfolding

Global Sustainable Economy

Global Sustainable Economy

current worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $

sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 100 million‘green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, waste recyclingwater management, agriculture, services

sustainable energy: 20 million new jobssustainable biomass: 15 million new jobssustainable construction: 10 million new jobs

Glocalisation

ca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Netherlands

thousands of sustainability frontrunners:sustainable energy, food, construction, mobility, life style, fashion

hundreds of start-ups in the realm of sustainability

ca. 400 plans for local energy cooperations

bubbling undercurrent

Local Sustainable Dynamics

Glocalisation

decentral becomes thé trend

energy but also food, water, waste, care

becomes co-determinant for spatial planning

society goest faster than politics can handle

companies, organisations, citizens, neighbourhoods

politics needs to facilitate this dynamics

Local Sustainable Dynamics

Sustainability Vision

Economy

clean and safe

circular

green resources

new, green manufacturingwater, energy, climate, space

Built Environment

energy producing

green

city farming

using roofs and front walls

Stichting Urgenda

Stichting Urgenda

Stichting Urgenda

Mobility & Transport

electric

mobility service

connected electric cars

hybrid form of public/private transport

Floating Cities

living, working and recreation on the water

floating districts and floating cities

green infrastructure on the water

floating parks

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Floating City

water recreation

ecology:wetlands

technology: floating foundation

energy: decentralheat/cold storage

mobility: floatinghighway, water taxi

living / working units

Value Communities

glocalisation

communities around energy, food, care

Clean Tech Rotterdam

McDonalds Biologisch – McFast + McSlow

What does this mean for process technology?

Sustainable Process Technology

semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis

unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche

looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels

climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods

scarcity of materials and minerals

Sustainable Process Technology

semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis

unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche

looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels

climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods

scarcity of materials and minerals

Plant One

semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis

unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche

looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels

climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods

scarcity of materials and minerals

What does this mean for this conference?

Sustainable Process Technology

semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis

unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche

looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels

climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods

scarcity of materials and minerals

Sustainable Process Technology

semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis

unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche

looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels

climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods

scarcity of materials and minerals

Conclusions• sustainable innovation will be the motor of a new economy

• this will radically change our production & consumption patterns

• City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,working and recreation area

• this transition process takes about 30 years and requires anorganic development trajectory

• floating city might become thé icon of a sustainable CityPort Rotterdam