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© 1998-2004 ITU Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) page - 1 Alexander NTOKO Chief, E-Strategy Unit ITU Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) Email: e-strategy @itu.int Web: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D Internet Protocol Technology Trends, Drivers and Strategies ITU/BDT Arab Regional Workshop on “e-Services Policies” Damascus, Syria, 27-29 April 2004

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Page 1: © 1998-2004 ITU Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT

© 1998-2004 ITU Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT) page - 1

Alexander NTOKO Chief, E-Strategy Unit

ITU Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT)Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D

Internet Protocol Technology Trends, Drivers and Strategies

ITU/BDT Arab Regional Workshop on “e-Services Policies”

Damascus, Syria, 27-29 April 2004

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Agenda

o The Internet - Is it a New phenomenon?o What Drives the Internet revolution?o What are the main Trends?o Are there Opportunities for Mongolia?o What Challenges must be addressed?

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Some important Internet Milestones

Internet – Is it a New Phenomenon?

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Internet and the IT Revolution

Part of an ENIAC computer some 50 years ago!

An IBM Pentium 4 Laptop today!

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Internet Drivers - Technology

o Intel Co-founder- Gordon Moore’s Law: The performance of micro-processors (computing power) doubles every 18 months.

o This results in cheaper, faster and perpetuates the process of convergence.

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Internet Drivers – Network Effect

o Ethernet designer - Robert Metcalfe’s Law of Connectivity: The value of a network increase with the number of nodes.

o The growth of the Internet is one of its main drivers.

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Internet Drivers - Business

o Search for New Revenue Streams as companies strive to extend markets, create new relationships, increase efficiencies and move up the value-chain.

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Rapid Evolution in Several PlatformsFixed Networks (dial-up, ISDN, Satellite, leased line)

Digital Mobile Data Services (GSM, WAP, I-mode)

Streaming Media (WebTV, DVB, VoIP, Cable Modems)

Household Appliances (TVs, Microwaves, Refrigerators)

Wireless Access (PDA + Mobile), WiFi

Broadband (xDSL, UWA, Millimeter Wave, 3G-IMT2000)

Power Line Technology For Internet Access

Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC)

Internet Trends

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Mobile Internet

Rapid evolution towards Mobile Internet as highspeed digital mobile services become widely available. WAP, I-Mode already delivering Internetservices to mobile subscribers.

Internet Trends – Mobile Growth

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Phenomenal Growth in all Regions.

New Types of Alliances and Partners.

New Business Models & Revenue Streams.

Core Platform for Convergent Services.

Reduced Set-up Costs for Start-ups.

Internet Trends

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Application Service Provisioning (ASP)

Deploy, Host, Manage, Rent Access to Applications for businesses from a central location with security, availability and performance.

Issue: Finding Right Position in ASP Value Chain

1. Network Access Services (Network Connectivity)

2. Content Distribution Services

3. Community and Hosting Services

4. Business Productivity & Communications

5. Application Integration and Work-Group Solutions

Network --> Services --> Applications --> Content --> Portal

Internet Strategies - ASP

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Network Service/Access Provisioning (NSP)

Reliable, low-cost, high speed access for Businesses and Consumers

Issue: Finding the model for reliable and affordable Internet Access to All.

1. Determine Appropriate Pricing Policy for Services

2. Take Advantage of New access Technologies

3. Forge Strategic Alliances with Carriers

4. Migrate from Traffic to Content Delivery Services

Internet Strategies - NSP

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1. Low Cost Reliable and Universal Access

2. High Speed Internet Access and Services

3. Content and Cultural Issues (Censorship etc)

4. Regulatory Framework for Service Providers

5. Intellectual Property for Domain Names

6. Security and Trust for Network Services

7. IP Telephony (Telecom or Value Added Service?)

8. Creation of Regional IP Backbones

9. Management of Public Internet Resources

10. Content Diversity - Multilingualism and Internationalization.

Internet Issues - General

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Breaking Industry and Service BarriersBroadcasting Companies --> Voice and Network Services

Telecom Operators --> Data network and financial services

Computing Companies --> Broadcasting (TV services)

Financial Institutions --> Data network access Services

Voice Services provided over data networks (VoIP)

Data Services over broadcasting networks (DVB)

Broadcasting services over data networks (WebTV, Radio)

Voice and Data Services over electrical power lines

TV Stations Using Web as another Distribution Channel - MMXI estimated 400% growth in access to TV Web sites

Internet Trends and Regulatory Challenges

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Domain Names and Intellectual Property

ccTLD Ownership and Management

IPR and Copyright issues (MP3 Sites/content)

Hijacking and Cyber-squatting of popular DNs

Framework for Electronic Transactions

Issuing and Managing Digital Certificates

Accreditation of Certification Authorities

Compliance to Technology Specifications

Recognition and Creation of Digital Signatures

Jurisdiction for Cross-border Transactions

Internet Regulatory Issues

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Convergent Services – e.g., VoIP and DVBNot regulated in many countriesFor TELCOS, VoIP is a telecom serviceVoIP providers, it a value-added serviceFor Regulators, it’s all very confusing!

Internet Service and Content Providers

Liabilities of Internet Service ProvidersYahoo and French GovernmentCompuServe and BavariaUnsolicited Emails – Spam, Spim

Data Confidentiality and Protection

Tariff Models for Internet Access

Licensing of ISPs (Cable, Fixed and Mobile)

Internet Regulatory Issues

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Competition in Local Access Networks

Impact of WLL Unbundling on Network Access

Business Case for Residential Users

Broadband IP Services for Fixed/WirelessMusic, Games, News VoD (Voice over DSL)

Wireless Broadband (2.5G, 3G, MMDS, Millimeter Wave)

Broadband Access StrategiesOptical Fibre, xDSL, Millimeter Wave Technology

3G Mobile, Ultra Wide Access (UWA)

Digital Cable/Satellite TV

Internet Issues – NG IP Network

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1. Policies to promote investments, partnerships development and use of the Internet.

2. Promote the development of human capacity and basic Internet skills.

3. Strategies for the establishment of a regional IP backbone and the management of public Internet resources.

4. Appropriate legislation to address security and trust concerns.

5. Use the Internet to enhance services to citizens (e-government)

What can governments do?

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Thank You for Your Attention

For further information, please contact:Alexander NTOKOChief, E-Strategies UnitInternational Telecommunication Union (ITU)Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT)Place des NationsCH-1211 Geneva 20SwitzerlandFax: +41 22 730 5484

Web: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/e-strategy

Email: [email protected]