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Peak Car? Transportforum 2014
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Peak Car?
Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH
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Billion car km in Sweden per year
SIKA annual report
GDP index, fixed prices
Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,Trafikanalys körsträckor 1999-2012
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden
We keep having cars
…but we drive them somewhat less
Source: Trafikanalys, based on bilprovningensource: Trafikanalys, Bilprovningen and population counts from SCB
Single man student
no childrenage 20
city apartment in 2012
Who drives how much compared to him?
+-
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, dailly personal travel survey, tobit regression coefficients for the car driver km, no interaction effects included
Urbanization reduces car km per person
• Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options• Prepare for change in tax intakes / financing• Public transit gains importance
• If car use declines, design for car-free access • If car use increases, manage demand
• Policy effect / potential to steer is greater than assumed
Conclusions