The Animals’ Guide to Sports Betting

This is the third part of the sports betting guide that’s being published here:

http://gamblers-united.com/animals-guide-sports-betting

A few years back I was training a buddy at heads up poker and hedecided to take a break in order to place his bet for the day. He hadbeen monitoring the odds for a while and decided they weren't gonnaclimb any longer. He did the standard Kelly calculations, then halvedthem, then upped the stake to his chosen minimum and finally placedthe bet. I was quite disappointed:- Daniel, you idiot! What you're average maximum bet?

Bankroll management is of extreme importance.It requires strength of character.It requires certain knowledge.Even most professionals do it incorrectly.

If you’re lucky and your strike rate for a month is 70%, you risk losing

all your money if you have a shitty bankroll management.

Onto a more normal strike rate of 60% with an optimal b.m., you have a high chance of ending with a profit.

- My average what?- If you wanted to make the maximum bet at decent odds, how much could

you bet now?- $10,000- How much could you put in on average if you’d always bet the most?- Around $10,000- Then that is your bankroll. There’s no point in making Kelly calculations

with more than that.

and think about it.

[…Since the necessary bankroll was actually smaller than what he had, Iskipped explaining why halving Kelly stakes is for pussies. He wasn’t going todo it anymore. The minimum bet deserved attention though.]- Now… If you really want to bet more on certain situations, don’t choose

those when you have a low advantage. Bet more when you have moreadvantage. Would you want to do that?

- No. The variance would be huge.- Then don’t, regardless of the situation.

and think about it.

If you don’t understand, it’s OK. There’s a lot of theory behind what follows

therefore you’ll have to either study more or trust me. If you’re looking for some

source of understanding, start with the book "The Kelly Capital Growth

Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice”.

You probably have the bankroll split between

multiple brokers, bookmakers and exchanges.

This doesn’t mean that you have to play pussy-

Kelly (half-Kelly or similar); it means you must

find the most efficient ways (with low fees) in

order to deposit, withdraw and transfer funds

between accounts.

1

How much is your bankroll? Is it much bigger

than the maximum bet that you’re usually

able to take? Is it 10 times larger? Then just

bet the maximum available… ALWAYS (but

never more than 10% of the bankroll or

whatever percent you’re comfortable with).

This should be your ultimate objective.

Until you get there, grind with the

following method (3).

2

How to calculate the bet size, exemplified

Variables:

N = average maximum bet OR the size of your bankroll if it is lower than the

average maximum bet; this is the key part that many professionals don’t get. This

is the twist.

D = decimal odds offered by the bookmaker

P = probability calculated by you

X = how much you should bet

Let’s say N is $10,000, D is 1.37 (-270 in American odds, 73% implied

probability) and P is 0.8 (80%, -400 in American odds, 1.25 implied odds).

You want to find out how much to bet (X = ?)

This is the formula exemplified:

𝑋 =𝐷 − 1 ∗ 𝑃 − (1 − 𝑃)

𝐷 − 1=0.37 ∗ 0.80 − 0.20

0.37∗ 𝑁 = 0.26 ∗ 𝑁 = $2,600

3

Was that easy or what?

Find the rest of the guide on…