IPL 2010

8 games to go

SITUATION

• Mumbai Indians are definitely in• Everyone else can make it

– Yes. Even KXP.

• Everyone else can also not make it• 8 games to go

– That means 256 possible combinations– Assuming no match is abandoned

• Each match can go either way– 50% chance for each team to win– The last few days have been like that anyway

THE 8 GAMES

HOW MANY TEAMS WILL BE IN CONTENTION FOR THE 4 SEMI-FINAL SPOTS?

• A 25% probability that NRR will not matter in deciding semi-final spots

• Nearly 50% chance that 3 teams will be eliminated at the end of the league stage (most likely)

• 4 scenarios, where all 8 teams will have a chance

HOW MANY TEAMS WILL BATTLE ON NRR FOR HOW MANY SLOTS?

• The most likely situation is that 2 teams will make it and 3 others will fight it out for the remaining 2 slots.

• Followed by 3 getting thru and 2 teams battling for last spot

• There are 4 scenarios in which 3 teams make it and 5 battle for last spot (5 for 1)– Which means all 8 teams are

involved

WHAT ARE THE SCENARIOS IN WHICH ALL 8 TEAMS HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT TO SEMIS?

• So, after the RR vs RCB match, there’ll only be 2 scenarios where this happens

• If CSK beats DD, or if DC beats KXP, the possibility of all 8 teams being involved, disappears altogether

What are the chances for each team?

• MI is definitely in• RCB, CSK, DD & DC have about a 25% chance of getting

knocked out• KKR has a 25% chance of being in contention

– There are 3 scenarios where they actually get in irrespective of NRR

• KXP still has a chance– There are 5 scenarios where they can get in provided they up their NRR

sufficiently

WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR KXP TO BE IN CONTENTION?

• The first 4 scenarios are the ones in which 5 teams fight it out for 1 spot on NRR (all 8 teams in the fray)

• The last scenario, sees DD & RR getting through and KKR getting knocked out. So KXP, CSK, DC & RCB end up on 12 points & fight for 1 spot

• If CSK beats DD tomorrow, then KXP is out of the tournament.

HOW CAN KKR GET THROUGH WITHOUT WORRYING ABOUT NRR?

• Apart from winning both their matches, KKR would be quite happy if DD & KXP win both their games.