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Chicago Cubs
A real-world, successful application a data mining topic
Presented by: Eliott Large
ITM 615-L
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 2
Contents
• Overview
• Industry information• Why Analytics?
• History of the Cubs and why they need data
• Link to DELTA Model
• Results and Analysis
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 3
Major League Baseball: Industry Overview
• Comprised of 30 teams in 2 leagues: American League and National League
• Analytics in baseball started decades before other sports, unofficially formalized in 1971 with the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR)
• Teams began using computer simulations with IBM BASIC in the 1970s
• Bill James pushed sabermetrics to the masses and Michael Lewis popularized it with Moneyball (2003 book and 2011 film)
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 4
Why Analytics?
• "A modern front office is trying to convert dollars into wins. Modern statistics are intended to help us understand how to get from dollars to wins.”
-Bill James
• Analytics-centric teams need to study how to score runs and how to prevent the other team from scoring runs.
• # Runs a player will contribute + # Runs he will prevent = Dollars a team can afford to spend for that player
MONEYBALL
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 5
• 1870: Team Established
• 1902 Team renamed
• 1908: Last World Series win
• 1945: Last World Series Appearance
• 1945: “Curse of the Billy Goat”
• 2003: Bartman Incident• Five outs away from the World Series.
The Cubs: A History(Problems Leading to/Needing Data)
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 6
Leadership• Tom Ricketts bought the Chicago Cubs
from The Tribune Company in 2009. They did not have a winning season until 2015.
• Theo Epstein, President: Rebuilt the Red Sox as the youngest GM in history and led them to three World Series titles after an 86-year drought. He signed in 2011. • Brought in Jed Hoyer, General
Manager and Jason McLeod, Director of Amateur Scouting
• Joe Maddon, Manager, signed for the 2015 season
• Creating a new culture by removing older players who wouldn’t fit in to “The Plan”
• Scouting, Drafting, and Developing became data-centric
D E L T A
C U L T U R E
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 7
DataD E L T A
• Theo Epstein had been known as one of the modern proponents of analytics while with the Red Sox.
• The Cubs and Bloomberg Sports designed a state-of-the-art player evaluation for the Operations Department.
• Highly confidential. Combines video and technology to evaluate players.
• Proprietary database system, Ivy, examines player performance and creates models to rationalize player expenditures.
• Most important uses of data: Scouting Reports, Medical Information, and Decision-Making
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 8
Enterprise
• Epstein’s hybrid approach: thorough statistical analysis and deep research on individual players.
• Rebuilt the enterprise from the ground up:
• Organizational meeting of 150 scouts, minor and major league personnel for four days in AZ.
• Creation of Baseball Research and Development Group
• All scouts are trained to capture and upload player data to Ivy
• Vision of the Cubs Way: from pitching and hitting to how they would teach defense to the personality makeup of players.
• “That’s Cub”
D E L T A
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 9
AnalystsD E L T A
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 10
Targets
• “Embrace the Target” Mantra
• 2015: National League Championship Series after winning the Wild Card with 97 wins (3rd-Best Record in MLB)
• Drafting and developing: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Willson Contreras
• Acquiring: Ben Zobrist, Jon Lester, Dexter Fowler, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, and Miguel Montero
D E L T A
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 11
2015 Results• Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
How many wins a player contributes above a replacement player at a specific position
Source: Chicago Mag
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 12
2015 Results• WAR and Payroll
How many wins a player contributes above a replacement player at a specific position
Source: Chicago Mag
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 13
2015 Results: WAR by Position
Source: Chicago Mag
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 14
2015 Results: Advanced Metrics• Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR):
Addison Russell
• Measures how many runs a player saved compared to an average fielder, representing defensive value
• Addison Russell replaced their former shortstop, Starlin Castro, and became the best shortstop in all of baseball.
Source: Chicago Mag
Source: Chicago Mag
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 15
2015 Results: Advanced Metrics
• 2015 National League Cy Young Winner Jake Arrieta
Source: Chicago Mag
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 16
2015 Results: Advanced Metrics• Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio: Ben Zobrist
• Measures a hitter’s plate discipline and how well they avoid striking out. Zobrist was only one of six players to walk more than they were struck out.
• Plays every position but Pitcher and Catcher
Source: Chicago Mag
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 17
Results: Wins
66
85
97
83
75
71
61
66
73
97
103
96
77
64
78
87
91
101
96
89
65
58
.200
.300
.400
.500
.600
.700
.800
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Wins and Losses by Year
W L Win %
Record-setting 103 Wins, the best since 1910.
Source: baseball-reference.com
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 18
Results: Attendance
• 2016 averaged just under 40,000 people per game
• Topped 3 million total tickets sold for just the 3rd time.
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
43,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Avg Attendance per Game
Cubs Attendence/Game MLB Avg Attendance/Game
Source: baseball-reference.com
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 19
Results: Ticket Prices
$34.30 $34.30
$42.49$47.75 $49.56
$46.90 $46.30 $44.55 $44.16 $44.81
$51.33
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
25
5,025
10,025
15,025
20,025
25,025
30,025
35,025
40,025
45,025
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Avg Ticket Price per Year
Cubs Attendence/Game Cubs Avg Ticket Price ($)
As fandom increases and demand for tickets rises, so does the average price of a ticket.
Source: baseball-reference.com
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 20
Results: Wins and Revenues
2016 set a record in annual ticket revenues reaching $167 million.
MONEYBALL.
66
85
97
83
7571
6166
73
97103
$10,000,000
$30,000,000
$50,000,000
$70,000,000
$90,000,000
$110,000,000
$130,000,000
$150,000,000
$170,000,000
$190,000,000
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Ticket Revenues by Wins
W Cubs Full Season Ticket Revenue
Source: baseball-reference.com
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 21
2016 Status• Became favorites to win the World Series
• 103-58-1 Record, most Wins since 1910
• Multiple MVP candidates in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant
• Clinched top seed and home field advantage until the World Series
• The integral Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod all received 5-year extensions
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 22
October 22, 2016 Update: IT HAPPENED!
Cubs defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in 6 games to win the NL
Pennant and advance to the World Series for the first time since 1945.
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Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 23
Where do you think they fall?
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 24
Eliott Large
Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 25
Works Cited
• Primary Article: • Moser, Whet. "The Math Nerd's Guide to the Chicago
Cubs." Chicago Mag. N.p., 28 Mar. 2016. Web. 09 Oct. 2016. <http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/April-2016/Eamus-Catuli/>.
• Theo Epstein History:• Ted Gregory. "Mastermind of the Cubs' Title
Quest." Chicago Tribune. Chicago Tribune, 3 Oct. 2016. Web. 09 Oct. 2016. <http://mobile.digitaledition.chicagotribune.com/infinity/article_popover_share.aspx?guid=2aa8d86c-bd2c-4bf2-b8a4-70e92a62af67>.
• Data: • Attendance and sales data from various pages on
www.baseball-reference.com