Deciding the Fall Classic with Social Buzz

Jeff Esposito www.jeffesposito.com

Baseball is a sport that is obsessed with numbers and statistics. You may know about Bill James’ statistics and Sabermetrics, but would you ever think of putting NPS, SIM or conversation share to the MLB postseason?

This report takes a look at the social buzz surrounding the eight teams that are gunning for the 2010 MLB crown.

MethodologyMeasured social mentions for each team from September 3 through October 3, 2010 using Scout Labs software• Mediums included:• Blogs• Forums• Traditional news sites• Twitter

Metrics used include conversation share, positive and negative conversation shares, SIM and Net promoter scores

Crowning a Champion

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To select a winner, I used social buzz to select the league and World Series winners. My formula equally weighs five variables , including conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score.

To select the league division winners, I ranked each variable on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point. The team with the most points is my predicted league champion. In the case of a tie, the overall mentions served as a tiebreaker.

I determined my World Series picks in a similar fashion using a 1-2 scale. In the case of a tie in the championship series the tie-breaker was the team with the overall highest score from both rounds combined.

FormulasConversation ShareTotal team mentions / Overall league mentions

Positive Conversation ShareTotal positive team mentions / Overall positive league mentions

Negative Conversation ShareTotal negative team mentions / Overall negative league mentions

Net Promoter Score (NPS)(Positive mentions + neutral mentions) – negative mentions / Total team mentions

Social Influence Marketing Score (SIM)NPS * Conversation Share * 1,000

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Leaders of the FallTop Mentioned Teams1. New York Yankees2. Philadelphia3. Texas

Least Mentioned Teams4. Cincinnati5. Tampa Bay6. San Francisco

Top Positive Mentions1. New York Yankees2. Tampa Bay3. Texas

Top Negative Mentions4. New York5. Philadelphia6. Texas

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Leaders of the FallTop SIM Score1. New York Yankees2. Philadelphia3. Atlanta

Low SIM Score4. Cincinnati5. Tampa Bay6. Minnesota

Top NPS1. San Francisco2. Cincinnati3. Atlanta

Low NPS4. Philadelphia5. Texas6. Minnesota

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Conversation Share21%

12%

12%

12%

11%

12%

11%

9%

New YorkPhiladelphiaAtlantaTexasSan FranciscoMinnesotaTampa BayCincinnati

American League Playoff Teams

• Minnesota Twins• New York Yankees• Tampa Bay Rays• Texas Rangers

American LeagueConversation Share

League Champion: New York Yankees

Team Rankings1. New York Yankees - 122. Texas Rangers - 83. Tampa Bay Rays - 74. Minnesota Twins - 6For an explanation of the scoring, see page 4

NPS1. Yankees – 96%2. Rangers – 95%3. Rays – 95%4. Twins – 95%

SIM Score5. Yankees - 359.006. Rangers – 204.247. Twins – 196.678. Rays – 192.50

Positive Conversation Share9. Yankees – 39.04%10. Rays – 23.64%11. Rangers – 19.75%12. Twins – 17.57%

Negative Conversation Share13. Yankees – 34.36%14. Rangers – 23.89%15. Twins – 21.82%16. Rays – 19.94% 10

38%

22%

21%

20%

New YorkTexasMinnesotaTampa Bay

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays

Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers

National League Playoff Teams

• Atlanta Braves• Cincinnati Reds• Philadelphia Phillies• San Francisco Giants

National LeagueConversation Share

League Champion: San Francisco Giants

Team Rankings1. San Francisco Giants – 102. Atlanta Braves – 93. Philadelphia Phillies – 74. Cincinnati Reds - 5For an explanation of the scoring, see page 4

NPS1. Giants – 98%2. Reds – 98%3. Braves – 97%4. Phillies – 95%

SIM Score5. Phillies – 263.336. Braves – 262.287. Giants – 249.948. Reds – 191.84

Positive Conversation Share9. Braves – 36.11%10. Giants – 29.72%11. Phillies – 22.10%12. Reds – 12.06%

Negative Conversation Share13. Phillies - 45.28%14. Braves – 27.30%15. Reds – 13.94%16. Giants – 13.48% 20

28%

27%

20%

25%

PhiladelphiaAtlantaCincinnatiSan Francisco

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants

World Series

New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants

And the winner is…

New York Yankees Utilizing the social buzz

surrounding the 2010 MLB Playoffs, the New York Yankees will defeat the San Francisco Giants to take home their 28th World Championship.

The final score using the metrics listed on page 4 has the Bronx Bombers winning 5-4 over the Giants.

About this reportThis report was compiled using Scout Labs. The account was provided to me for research purposes.

MLB and Social Media are two things that I am passionate about. Like many baseball fans, I am excited for the start of the postseason. I did the research for this report to see if this online passion and buzz had any relation to on-field performance. I figured using numbers was a better predicting tool than saying I like this team or mascot X is tougher than mascot Z.

This report was not done in conjunction with the league or any member teams. All images used in this report were from PicApp under their terms and conditions.

All team names and league marks appearing in this document are trademarks or registered trademarks of Major League Baseball or individual teams.

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About this reportAbout Jeff Esposito

Jeff Esposito is a public relations professional with a passion for social and conversational media and writes on both topics on JeffEsposito.com. He earned his PR stripes working in the professional sports world. Jeff is currently a public relations manager at Vistaprint, a leading online provider of professional marketing products and services to micro businesses. He is responsible for the day-to-day management, development and growth of the company's social media properties and campaigns. He is also active in a number of other communications areas for Vistaprint, including marketing communications and PR. The information and findings are from Jeff Esposito and do not reflect the opinions of his employer or Scout Labs.

If you would like more information on this report or would like to contact me, please visit: http://jeffesposito.com/about/

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