An Analysis of Enshrinement Time

Into the Basketball Hall of Fame

Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame

• Dedicated to James Naismith

• Established in 1959 in Springfield, MA

• Eligibility: 5 years retired

• Recognizes all players, amateurs, coaches, broadcasters

• Direct-elect committees

Member of Hall of Fame

Honors Committee18/24 Votes Needed

Screening Committee5/7 or 7/9 Votes Needed

VS.Michael Jordan Arnie Risen

Duration: 6 years Duration: 40 years

Ultimate Question

What are the determinants of a player’s time until Basketball Hall of Fame enshrinement?

Survival Analysis

• Analyze: Length of survival of an event

• Event: Waiting to be enshrined

• Begins at retirement

• “Failure”: Being enshrined into HOF

Previous Literature

• Staw & Hoang (1995): sunk costs time on team

• Fynn & Sonnenschein (2012): career longevity

• Height, Awards

• Lakin (2012): College players using Bayesian approach

• Rebounds, assists, FG %

Data• Basketball-reference.com

• All NBA players with at least 1 All-Star Game appearance (377 players)

• Variables• Time based: Decade

• Position: C, G, F

• Individual Performance Statistics (IPS): PPG, APG, RPG

• Award based: MVP, All Star

• Team based: Playoff Apps., Championships

Decade Dilemma• Has HOF changed its

criterion for HOF worthiness across the decades?

INSIGNIFICANT

IPS

• Pos: C, G, F• PPG, APG, RPG

Kaplan Meier Curve

Cox-Snell Residuals

Effects of Position on IPS

Interactive Effects of Position and IPS

Awards: MVP Kaplan-Meier

• Put interactive graphic of all star groups here

Cox PH Model of All Star Groups

Cox PH Model controlling for IPS

Future Slides

• Future Research• Data Limitations• Thank JOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!