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Based on school history, conference history, experience, and financial risk, the Rams should not take Sam Bradford with the first pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. These are the slides used in my presentation found on my blog: http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com
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NFL Draft Nerd
Presents
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3 Reasons the Rams Shouldn’t Take a Chance on Sam Bradford
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
3 Reasons why the Rams shouldn’t take a chance on Sam Bradford
1. Taking any QB in the 1st round is a risky business decision– 4x cost with at best a 2x chance of success vs 2nd round
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
Since 2000, 26 QBs have been taken in the 1st round
Chad Pennington - 2000
Michael Vick - 2001
David Carr - 2002
Joey Harrington - 2002
Patrick Ramsey - 2002
Carson Palmer - 2003
Byron Leftwich - 2003
Kyle Boller - 2003
Rex Grossman - 2003
Eli Manning - 2004
Phillip Rivers - 2004
Ben Roethlisberger - 2004
J.P. Losman - 2004
Alex Smith - 2005
Aaron Rodgers - 2005
Jason Campbell - 2005
Vince Young - 2006
Matt Leinart - 2006
Jay Cutler - 2006
JaMarcus Russell - 2007Brady Quinn - 2007
Matt Ryan - 2008
Joe Flacco - 2008
Matthew Stafford - 2009
Josh Freeman - 2009
Mark Sanchez - 2009
Source:
Of those 26, only 7 have started Conference Championship Games (27%)
Chad Pennington - 2000
Michael Vick - 2001
David Carr - 2002
Joey Harrington - 2002
Patrick Ramsey - 2002
Carson Palmer - 2003
Byron Leftwich - 2003
Kyle Boller - 2003
Rex Grossman - 2003
Eli Manning - 2004
Phillip Rivers - 2004
Ben Roethlisberger - 2004
J.P. Losman - 2004
Alex Smith - 2005
Aaron Rodgers - 2005
Jason Campbell - 2005
Vince Young - 2006
Matt Leinart - 2006
Jay Cutler - 2006
JaMarcus Russell - 2007Brady Quinn - 2007
Matt Ryan - 2008
Joe Flacco - 2008
Matthew Stafford - 2009
Josh Freeman - 2009
Mark Sanchez - 2009
Source:
Of those 26, only 7 have started Conference Championship Games (27%)
Michael Vick - 2001
Eli Manning - 2004
Phillip Rivers - 2004
Ben Roethlisberger - 2004
Source:
If you remove the guys who rode a top 10 defense, it becomes 4 out of 26 (15%)
Compare that to 2nd Rounders Since 2000
1 of 9 (11%) QBs drafted in the 2nd Round since 2000 have started Conference Championship Games
Drew Brees, 2nd Round Pick 2001
The 8 other 2nd Round QB Picks Since 2000
• Marques Tuiasosopo – 2001• Quincy Carter – 2001• Tavaris Jackson – 2006• Kellen Clemens – 2006• John Beck – 2007• Kevin Kolb – 2008• Chad Henne – 2008• Pat White – 2009
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
And, it’s expensive
2001 Draft 2001 Salary (% of Cap)
2001 Salary Cap Value ($)
2002 Salary (% of Cap)
2002 Salary Cap Value ($)
Michael VickRound 1, Pick 1
3.71% $2,500,000 3.59% $2,550,000
Drew BreesRound 2, Pick 1
0.93% $627,500 1.00% $710,740
2001 Salary Cap: $67,400,0002002 Salary Cap: $71, 100,000
2001 Draft Example
Source:http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
2 Year QB Salary Averages
Draft Placement
Year 1 Salary (% of Cap)
Year 2 Salary (% of Cap)
Round 1 2.14% 3.27%
Round 2 0.61% 0.79%
It is more than 3.5-4X more expensive to draft a QB in the 1st round than in the 2nd round
Source:
Salary Analysis of 1st and 2nd Round QB’s Drafted Since 2000
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
3 Reasons why the Rams shouldn’t take a chance on Sam Bradford
1. Taking any QB in the 1st round is a risky business decision– 4x cost with at best a 2x chance of success vs 2nd round
2. Where you trained matters– History is not on OU’s side or even the Big 12’s
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
Number of OU QBs Who Took an NFL Snap Since This Guy Was President:
=0Source:
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
Only One Big 12 QB Has Ever Started a Super Bowl
Vince Ferragamo,NebraskaSuper Bowl XIV, 1980
Source:
The Only Big 12 QB to Start a Conference Championship Game Since 1980
Kordell Stewart,ColoradoAFC Championship Starter2001, 1997
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/Source:
3 Reasons why the Rams shouldn’t take a chance on Sam Bradford
1. Taking any QB in the 1st round is a risky business decision– 4x cost with at best a 2x chance of success vs 2nd round
2. Where you trained matters– History is not on OU’s side or even the Big 12’s
3. Bradford isn’t all that experienced
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
College Attempts: Past and PresentName College Att
Philip Rivers 1711Chad Pennington 1619Brady Quinn 1602Byron Leftwich 1442Eli Manning 1363Patrick Ramsey 1350Matt Ryan 1346Carson Palmer 1334Ben Roethlisberger 1304Matt Leinart 1245Jay Cutler 1242Josh Freeman 1151Rex Grossman 1110Kyle Boller 1041J.P. Losman 987Matthew Stafford 987Joe Flacco 938David Carr 933Joey Harrington 928Michael Vick 893Jason Campbell 854JaMarcus Russell 796Vince Young 718Aaron Rodgers 665Alex Smith 587Mark Sanchez 487
1st Rounders, 2000-2009Name College Att
Dan LeFevour 1763Colt McCoy 1645John Skelton 1363Jimmy Clausen 1110Tim Tebow 995Sam Bradford 893Sean Canfield 861Tony Pike 753Jevan Snead 861Jarrett Brown 421
Top 2010 Prospects
Top prospects according to:
Sources: post-2000, NCAA; pre-2000, various
Name College AttDrew Brees 1678Kevin Kolb 1565Chad Henne 1387Kellen Clemmens 1005Tarvaris Jackson 984John Beck 885Quincy Carter 853Pat White 783Marques Tuiasosopo 764
2nd Rounders, 2000-2009
http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
3 Reasons why the Rams shouldn’t take a chance on Sam Bradford
1. Taking any QB in the 1st round is not a good business decision– 4x cost at 2x chance of success vs 2nd round
2. Where you trained matters– History is not on OU’s side or even the Big 12’s
3. Bradford isn’t all that experiencedI like: McCoy, LeFevour, or Skelton in later rounds http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com/
• Think I’m an idiot?
• Think I’m a genius?
• Blog: http://nfldraftnerd.blogspot.com• Email: [email protected]
Musical thanks:
Marching Band
