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Risk Management In Video Game Production Dino Dini 2014

Risk management

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Guest lecture on managing risk in video game development.

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Page 1: Risk management

Risk Management

In Video Game Production

Dino Dini 2014

Page 2: Risk management

Cevat Yerli - Founder & CEO of Crytek

The way Yerli talks about discovering programming feels well-practiced, as do

most of his stories. It takes place around 1990, when he was only 12 years old

"I was playing a game called Kick Off, from a programmer called Dino Dini," Yerli

says, pronouncing his name carefully, almost reverently. "It combined my two

passions [soccer and games]. ... I played so long at this friend's place that I forgot

about time. It got [to be] late, late [in the] afternoon. The sun was going down and I

was supposed to be at home.

"I took my [bicycle], drove downhill and [was lost in] a daydream. And I just

snapped and the next thing I remember I was in a hospital."

Yerli was so consumed by thoughts of Kick Off that he smashed headlong into a

brick wall. He has no memory of the crash.

-Polygon interview 11/07/2013

Dino Dini 2014

Page 3: Risk management

Risk Probability

Failure to

satisfy

clearly

defined

goals

Non

deterministic

processes

Project

failure

of

Unknowns

Knowns

Certainties Probabilities

Hard To

Measure

Easy To

Measure

Tool 1: Map of connected concepts

Page 4: Risk management

Risk Probability

Failure to

satisfy clearly

defined goals

Non

deterministic

processes

Project failure

of

Unknowns

Knowns

Certainties Probabilities

Hard To

Measure

Easy To

Measure

Page 5: Risk management

Hard To

Measure

Easy To

Measure

Analysis is important. However, human nature means that

most often we focus on easy to measure things, regardless of

how effective they are in achieving our goals.

Page 6: Risk management

Hard To

Measure

Easy To

Measure

Pass Rates

Popularity

Scores

Revenue

Example of "Easy Bias": An educational establishment

Education

What is measured

What Matters

Page 7: Risk management

Hard To

Measure

Easy To

Measure

Budget

Features

Time

Example of "Easy Bias": The Video Game Industry

Entertainment

Value

What is measured

What Matters

Page 8: Risk management

Hard To

Measure

Easy To

Measure

More Objective

More

Subjective

There is often little faith in

subjective comparisons to track

progress, yet these usually matter

the most.

It is hard to argue with objective

comparisons, so these usually

overpower any analysis

Page 9: Risk management

The more unknowns

you have, the greater

your risk

Risk Unknowns

So… we should all eliminate

unknowns then, right?

Page 10: Risk management

The more unknowns

you have, the greater

your risk

Risk Unknowns

So… we should all eliminate

unknowns then, right?

Page 11: Risk management

Tool 2: Robust Triangles

Risk

Unknowns ?

Page 12: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns

The more unknowns

you have, the greater

your risk

This the the video game

industry. An artful

entertainment medium. It must

innovate, and innovation

increases unknowns.

Page 13: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns

The more unknowns

you have, the greater

your risk

Much of the important

development in video games

occurred in indie development

(before that was a term).

Page 14: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns

The more unknowns

you have, the greater

your risk

How can we compensate for

increasing unknowns?

Page 15: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns Flexibility

Page 16: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns Flexibility

FIXED

Choose

Between

Page 17: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns Flexibility

FIXED

Choose

Between

Page 18: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns Flexibility

FIXED

Choose

Between

Page 19: Risk management

Example on an unrobust triangle

Quality

Resources Time

Page 20: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns Flexibility

Page 21: Risk management

More Abstract

Less AbstractLess AbstractLess Abstract

More Abstract

Often answers how.

Often answers why. Groups more concrete concepts

Serves more abstract needs

Tool 3: Abstraction Graph

Page 22: Risk management

Flexibility Organising

complexityHow?

Negotiable

constraints

Abstraction

SimplificationNegotiable

time

Negotiable

budget

Negotiable

features

Reducing inter-

dependencies

Priority List

Refactoring

Efficiency

?

Page 23: Risk management

Risk

Unknowns Flexibility

Page 24: Risk management

Reduce effect

of Unknowns Experience

How?

Prototyping

Hire

experienced

people

Training

Rapid

Protoyping

Prototyping

Budget

Analysis of

historical data /

Research

Faith in

(research)

process

Good

management

practices

Effective

assessment of

research value

Data driven

decision

making

Effective

procedures and

heuristics

Tools

Tools

Tools

Tools

Tools

Page 25: Risk management

Rapid

Prototyping Focus on core

player

experience

Quick and

flexible

development

environmentDevelop set of

identifying

constraints Middleware (e.g.

Unity)

Design game

considering

production

issues

Page 26: Risk management

Reducing inter-

dependencies

Game DesignProduction

Process

Design

How?

Team

management

Heuristic:

Avoid circular

dependencies

Heuristic: Limit

dependencies

between

art/prog/design

Communication

Tools

Heuristic: Avoid

central points of

failure

Heuristic: TOC

Page 27: Risk management

Efficiency

Theory of

Constraints

(TOC)

How?

TOC supplies heuristics and methods that help

manufacturing to be efficient. However, it turns

out that these are also invaluable in software

development projects.

Page 28: Risk management

Efficiency

Theory of

Constraints

(TOC)

How? Heuristic: Keep

all inventory as

low as possible

Algorithm

Find the biggest bottleneck

Reduce it

Repeat continuously

Integrate as

you go

Do not

stockpile

Constantly

monitor your

'stock'

Reassign

personnel to

remove

backlogs

Page 29: Risk management

Development Process as a factory

Tool 4: Process Diagram

Process Inventory

Page 30: Risk management

Development Process as a factory

DesignSpecs Tasks Dev

Work To

Check

Finished

Product

Project

tracking

QA (Unit)

Verified

work

Work to

integrate

Work to

check

Defects

to find

Defects

Found

IntegrationQA

(Product)Defects

to Find

Design

Issues

Page 31: Risk management

Development Process as a factory

DesignSpecs Tasks Dev

Work To

Check

Finished

Product

Project

tracking

QA (Unit)

Verified

work

Work to

integrate

Work to

check

Defects

to find

Defects

Found

IntegrationQA

(Product)Defects

to Find

Design

Issues

QA gets harder

when there is

more stuff to

work through

Page 32: Risk management

Development Process as a factory

DesignSpecs Tasks Dev

Work To

Check

Finished

Product

Project

tracking

QA (Unit)

Verified

work

Work to

integrate

Work to

check

Defects

to find

Defects

Found

IntegrationQA

(Product)Defects

to Find

Design

Issues

Imagine the horror after

you have used most of

your time

Page 33: Risk management

Development Process as a factory

DesignSpecs Tasks Dev

Work To

Check

Finished

Product

Project

tracking

QA (Unit)

Verified

work

Work to

integrate

Work to

check

Defects

to find

Defects

Found

IntegrationQA

(Product)Defects

to Find

Design

Issues

What strategy would you use in this case?

Page 34: Risk management

Why stockpiles are bad

● Work can become obsolete due to design changes

● Work could be cut from the product due to time pressure

● Work 'rusts'

● Stockpiles get in the way

● Stockpiles interfere with each other (e.g. finding and understanding bugs)

● Represent risk (not worth anything until integrated)

● Stockpiles damage morale

Page 35: Risk management

Why do stockpiles happen?

● The feeling that everyone should be doing something

● Generating the impression of hard work for naive managers

● Bad communication

● Bad planning

● Bad management

Page 36: Risk management

Stockpiles are so bad...

● That they can outweigh the benefit of continuing to run a process

● Yes, this means that it can actually make things worse

● So you sometimes need the courage to turn a process off

Page 37: Risk management

I can't have people doing nothing!

● Yes, you can. They can take a break… come back refreshed...

● You can reassign them to some other task to help with a backlog

● You can get them to refactor their existing work (reducing the need for QA)

● You can assign them to QA if that is what is needed

● You can assign them low risk work

● You can assign them research tasks

Anything is better than making a bad situation worse!

Page 38: Risk management

Production

Process

DesignDesign, Art and Programming all in one big

soup.

Integrate

QA

La-La-Land

Page 39: Risk management

Production

Process

Design

Design Art Programming

Integrate

QA

La-La-Land

Minimise

dependencies

between

tracks

Page 40: Risk management

Production

Process

Design

Design Art Programming Integration QA

Happy Land

Final testing and integration

Page 41: Risk management

What's Your Biggest Risk?

There now follows an important

heuristic for risk management..

Page 42: Risk management

What's Your Biggest Risk?

Find the biggest risk

Mitigate it

Repeat continuously

Always know your biggest risk and deal with it first.

How do we mitigate a risk? You know now...

Page 43: Risk management

Conclusion

(key points

covered)

Risk

Management

Minimise

unknowns and

their effects

Increase

Flexibility

Reduce

dependencies

Increase

Efficiency

Design &

managementTOC

Experience/

Expertise

Prototyping

Biggest Risk

Reduce scope

Page 44: Risk management

Thank you