(Open) data analysis for decision support: challenges and essentials - With examples from Open Coesione

(Open) data analysis for decision support: challenges and essentials !

Antonio Vetrò Technische Universität München, Germany

01 September 2014,Matera (Italy), RENA Summer school

@phisaz

[email protected]

With examples from Open Coesione

With material from a joint work with: Lorenzo Canova, Marco Torchiano (PoliTO - Politecnico di Torino) Federico Morando, Raimondo Iemma (NEXA Center for Internet and Society - PoliTO) Aline Pennisi ( Ministero dell’ Economia e delle Finanze ) Feedback from Andrea Milan (United Nations University) Daniel Méndez Fernández (Technische Universität München)

mailto:[email protected]?subject=Fast%20Feedback%20Cycles%20in%20Empirical%20Software%20Engineering%20Research

RENA Summer School 2014

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Deciding and

implementing together

Monitoring togetherPlanning together

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Outline

• Data analysis : a philosophical perspective, empiricism

• Data analysis challenges: examples with Open Data

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Outline



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Data

Source: Klaus Mainzer,Modern Aspects of Philosophy of Science in Informatics and its Applications,

Lehrstuhl für Philosophie und Wissenschaftstheorie Carl von Linde-Akademie Munich Center for Technology in Society Technische Universität München

Klaus Mainzer

Munich Center for Technology in Society Technische Universität München

Knowledge Representation : World, Model, and Formal Theory

World Model Theory

observation simulation deduction

approximation: {good, sufficient, insufficient}

interpretation: {true, false}

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Data

Source: Klaus Mainzer,Modern Aspects of Philosophy of Science in Informatics and its Applications,

Lehrstuhl für Philosophie und Wissenschaftstheorie Carl von Linde-Akademie Munich Center for Technology in Society Technische Universität München

Klaus Mainzer

Munich Center for Technology in Society Technische Universität München

Knowledge Representation : World, Model, and Formal Theory

World Model Theory

observation simulation deduction

approximation: {good, sufficient, insufficient}

interpretation: {true, false}

Figure: techrepublic.com

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http://www.techrepublic.com/article/more-than-economics-the-social-impact-of-open-data/

Data analysis A philosophical perspective, empiricism

Observations / Evaluations

Questions / Hypotheses

Theory/System of theories

Pattern building

Falsification / support

Theory building

Study population

Deductive logicInductive logic

See also: Runeson et al. Case Study Research in Software Engineering: Guidelines and Experiments

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• Each empirical method…

• has a specific specific purpose • relies on a specific data type • has a specific setting !!

Purpose • Exploratory • Descriptive • Explanatory / confirmatory • Improving !

Data Type • Qualitative • Quantitative

Data analysis A philosophical perspective, empiricism


Questions / Hypotheses


Pattern building Falsification /

support

Theory building

Study population

Deductive logic

Inductive logic

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Data analysis A philosophical perspective


(Tentative) Hypotheses



support

Theory building

Study population


See also: Vessey et al A unified classification system for research in the computing disciplines

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support

Theory building

Study population


Formal / conceptual analysis

Grounded theory

Exploratory – case/field studies – experiments – data analysis

Survey / interview research

Confirmatory – case studies – experiments – data analysis – …

Ethnographic studies


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support

Theory building

Study population



Grounded theory






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support

Theory building

Study population



Grounded theory






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support

Theory building

Study population



Grounded theory






Deciding and

implementing togetherMonitoring together

Planning together

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Outline



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Opportunities

Mike Lemansky, Open Data 11

Opportunities

Lab

Mike Lemansky, Open Data 11

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& challenges

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& challenges

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Open Coesione

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Open Coesione

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Open Coesione

Dataset “progetti” - FSE 2007/2013 Snapshot 31/12/2013 Focus on funding and dates, 22/74 columns

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Open Coesione

Dataset “progetti” - FSE 2007/2013 Snapshot 31/12/2013 Focus on funding and dates, 22/74 columns

> colnames(subsetProgetti) [1] "FINANZ_UE" "FINANZ_STATO_FONDO_DI_ROTAZIONE" [3] "FINANZ_STATO_FSC" "FINANZ_STATO_PAC" [5] "FINANZ_STATO_ALTRI_PROVVEDIMENTI" "FINANZ_REGIONE" [7] "FINANZ_PROVINCIA" "FINANZ_COMUNE" [9] "FINANZ_ALTRO_PUBBLICO" "FINANZ_STATO_ESTERO" [11] "FINANZ_PRIVATO" "FINANZ_DA_REPERIRE" [13] "FINANZ_TOTALE_PUBBLICO" "DPS_DATA_INIZIO_PREVISTA" [15] "DPS_DATA_FINE_PREVISTA" "DPS_DATA_INIZIO_EFFETTIVA" [17] "DPS_DATA_FINE_EFFETTIVA" "DPS_FLAG_CUP" [19] "DPS_FLAG_PRESENZA_DATE" "DPS_FLAG_COERENZA_DATE_PREV" [21] "DPS_FLAG_COERENZA_DATE_EFF" "DATA_AGGIORNAMENTO" 13

Milepost5 850 NE 81st Ave Portland, OR 97213 http://milepost5.net/galleries/

Gallery of challenges: Guided Tour

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http://milepost5.net/galleries/

Challenge #1: Errors in data

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43 !

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43 !

Errors can be inserted from:

- source (observation, sensor)

- manual insertion

- error from ETL*

!Be careful before claiming errors:

they might be “just” accuracy problems

* extraction, transformation, and loading

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Challenge #2: accuracy

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43 !

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Unione Europea 22.50Fondo di Rotazione 21.76Regione 0.74

———45.00

43 !

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———45.00

43 !

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———45.00

»Refer always to raw data

»If not possible, estimate accuracy on analysis (e.g., about 5% in the example above)

43 !

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Challenge #3: missing data

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sub: analysis on 22 attributes int: analysis on the whole dataset general: both sub and int NA = NAs belongs to the domain

Completeness

pcc= percentage of complete cells pcrp = percentage of complete rows

Valu

e

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NA in “finanziamenti”


Completeness


Valu

e

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NA in “finanziamenti”

NA in “finanziamenti”, “pagamenti”,

missing values in Ateco and other columns


Completeness


Valu

e

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No datesNA in “finanziamenti”




Completeness


Valu

e

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Completeness


Valu

e

Codes and descriptions

Ateco + other descriptions

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Completeness


Valu

e



No rows are complete

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Completeness


Valu

e

In 89% of projects dates are present




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Completeness


Valu

e

In 89% of projects dates are present






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What to do with missing data

1. Understand domain: - e.g., NA or 0 ?

2. Find motivation (e.g.. missing start date o.k. if project hasn’t started yet) 3. Understand how much they impact your analysis 4. You might also:

– exclude rows with missing values – use imputation techniques

– mean substitution – regression substitution – group mean substitution – hot deck imputation – multiple imputation

Source: A Mockus , Missing data in software engineering, Guide to advanced empirical software engineering, 200822

Challenge #4: outliers

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» Outliers can point to interesting facts


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» … or to something which deserves a second look


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Valu

e

pcvc= percentage of cells with correct value

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ca. 50000 fundings < 1€Va

lue


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ca. 50000 fundings < 1€

ca.210000 <5€

Valu

e


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ca.210000 <5€

ca. 360000<55€Va

lue


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ca.210000 <5€

ca. 360000<55€Va

lue

ca.430000<89€


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What to do with outliers

1. Retention – Check the distribution of data: if heavy tailed, keep

them but don’t apply techniques which require normality

2. Exclusion – Remove them in case you think is a measurement error

or an exceptional case 3. Sensitivity analysis

– compare results with and without outliers – reason on the motivations

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Challenge #5: Drawing proper conclusions

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Challenge #5: Drawing proper conclusions

» Knowledge is more than statistical significance

» Context and domain knowledge are fundamental

» Consider both qualitative and quantitative aspects

» Triangulate data with other sources27

Summing up and additional suggestions

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Challenges : watch out to

!- Errors

- Data accuracy

- Missing data

- Outliers

- Drawing proper conclusions


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!- Errors

- Data accuracy

- Missing data

- Outliers


Verify data collection !- sampling - reference time and context - appropriateness to goals - transformations


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!- Errors

- Data accuracy

- Missing data

- Outliers



Check first “how data looks like” !Most programs (Excel, SPSS,STATA,R,…) offer predefined functions


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!- Errors

- Data accuracy

- Missing data

- Outliers



Check first “how data looks like” !Most programs (Excel, SPSS,STATA,R,…) offer predefined functions

Keep track of:

- modifications and reasons

- different versions

- raw data

Interesting readings

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Gallery of challenges: Guided Tour End of Guided Tour

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Gallery of challenges: Guided Tour End of Guided Tour

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