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Photo by gordon (TD8316) - Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License https://www.flickr.com/photos/22934398@N05 Created with Haiku Deck
GuesstimatePeter Rubarth, 2014
Prediction is very hard, especially if it‘s
about the futureNils Bohr
Exercise 1 – Expert estimation
Write down your estimates for the following facts:
1. Length of German border (in km)2. Amount of water in Bodensee lake (in l)3. Dollars (as notes) in circulations within the USA in 2004 (in
$) 4. Birth year of Alexander the Great (year)5. World wide revenue with movie “Titanic” (in $)6. Latitude of Shanghai (in degrees)7. Temperature on the surface of the sun (in °C)8. Number of bacteria in human intestines9. Number of works of Ludwig van Beethoven10. Expanse of Asia (in km^2)11. Number of stars in Milky Way12. Number newly published books in Germany 2004-200713. Area covered by Hamburger Hafencity including water area
(in ha)
Thank you @projectzone - http://yourprojectzone.com/2014/03/30/uebung-team-estimation-game
Why do we estimate?
●Prepare project bid●Plan time, resources, …●Foster discussion●Determine economic
feasability●Someone told us so●…
What do we estimate?
●Time
●Effort
●Complexity
How do we estimate?
Expert estimation
●Ask someone who should know
Formal model
• COCOMO 2, Function Points, IFPUG FPA, LOC, COSMIC Full Function Point (FFP) …
What could go wrong?
Insufficient data
Negotiation● Now cut that in half and we have a deal
Estimates become targets
● But you’ve said it will take only so long!
Work expands so as to fill the time
available for its completion.
● Parkinson‘s Law
This is why buffers (or the Project Managers‘ multiplier) don‘t work.
Cycle of Mistrust
Deliver the wrong thing, or late
Trust breaks down
Commitments of
scope and time
Focus on schedule
© Copyright Neil Killick, Iterative, 2013
Good Practise
Clarify objectives
• For which purpose?
• What are the risks and mitigation strategies?
• Awareness of the nature of estimations?
Provide ranges not a single value
Likely effort from … to ….
Helps to communicate that an estimate is not a guarantee
Use indirection, avoid direct time estimates
• Abstract units such as Story Points, Ideal Days or T-Shirt sizes help to communicate uncertainty
• Support empiric forecasting
Explicitly state assumptions
Provide a disclaimer:• Which assumptions • Use approach and data• Risks and possible impact
At least you have told `em
Review and update your estimates
• Use what you have learned• Do not hide unwelcome
news• Burnt hours are a bad
progress indicator
The evil of Fixed Price Contracts
Knowing it will take longer does not help, because everything is fixed (unless people really idled before)
Strong incentive to cut corners and damage quality
Even better practise
• FOCUS ON VALUE• DELIVER SMALL SLICES• DELIVER EARLY &
FREQUENTLY• CUSTOMER
COLLABORATION© Copyright Neil Killick, Iterative, 2013
EMPIRICISM
• Use actual results to predict progress
Useful Methods
Group Estimation
Don‘t rely on a single opinion
Methods:• Wideband Delphi• Planning Poker• Affinity Mapping
Analogy Method
• Compare project to previous experience
• Use checklist to compare and classify on different dimensions
• Only useful if sufficient similarity
Affinity Estimation
• Silently order items relative to each other
• Build clusters
• Apply appropriate scale
Now it‘s your turn!
Exercise 2 –Affinity Estimation
1. Take first item and place it in the
center
2. Take turns and position subsequent
item relative to existing items
3. Reorder if you disagree
4. Do not discuss!
Exercise 2 – Affinity estimation
Write down your estimates for the following facts:
1. Length of German border (in km)2. Amount of water in Bodensee lake (in l)3. Dollars (as notes) in circulations within the USA in 2004 (in
$) 4. Birth year of Alexander the Great (year)5. World wide revenue with movie “Titanic” (in $)6. Latitude of Shanghai (in degrees)7. Temperature on the surface of the sun (in °C)8. Number of bacteria in human intestines9. Number of works of Ludwig van Beethoven10. Expanse of Asia (in km^2)11. Number of stars in Milky Way12. Number newly published books in Germany 2004-200713. Area covered by Hamburger Hafencity including water area
(in ha)
Thank you @projectzone - http://yourprojectzone.com/2014/03/30/uebung-team-estimation-game
Exercise 2 –Solution
Find the solution at
http://yourprojectzone.com/2014/03/30/
uebung-team-estimation-game/
Thank you!Twitter: #PRubarth