Future opportunities in social communications

Communications and the Internet

How human communication behavior is reflected in the internet and where future opportunities lie

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Tor Bair, Pawan Gupta, Val Lee, Natalie Pitcher, and Upekha Weerasinghe

Many theories of technology exist and have relevant things to say about social products

1Wiebe E. Bijker, Thomas P. Hughes, Trevor Pinch and Deborah G. Douglas. (2012). The Social Construction of Technological Systems, The MIT Press. 6. http://mitpress-ebooks.mit.edu/pdfreader/social-construction-technological-systems/51!2Kock: New Theory of Computer-Mediated Communication Based on Darwinian Evolution Organization Science 15(3), pp. 327–348, © 2004 INFORMS. http://www.tamiu.edu/~nedkock/Pubs/2004JournalOrgScience/Kock2004.pdf!

Social Construction of Technology – human actions shape technology1

We believe that in the age of the App Store, downloads reflect human shaping of technology to fit our existing needs

Media naturalness theory – humans are evolved to communicate face to face and recent innovations are not wired in our brains2

We believe that humans are evolved to communicate across a variety of stone age methods, including face to face, and choose more natural-like social technologies

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Many theories of technology exist and have relevant things to say about social products

3Daft, R. L., & Lengel, R. H. (1986). Organizational Information Requirements, Media Richness and Structural Design. Management Science, (5). 554.!4Dennis, A. R., Fuller, R. M., & Valacich, J. S. (2008). MEDIA, TASKS, AND COMMUNICATION PROCESSES: A THEORY OF MEDIA SYNCHRONICITY. MIS Quarterly, 32(3), 575-600.!

Media richness theory – rich media can better reproduce what is sent over it reducing uncertainty and ambiguity3

We believe that for social communications a balance of effort needed and importance of the communication is a deciding factor for communication media choice

Media synchronicity theory – media support synchronicity choice of media impacts conveyance of information (-) and convergence of decision making (+)4

We believe that synchronicity is a feature of attention and today conveyance may now also have a positive relationship in the social communication space

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What is the necessary condition for communication product success?

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Successful internet communication products must closely reflect popular analog behaviors

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Human communication behaviors have existed for millennia. Some are popular (talking), others less frequently used (dance, smoke signals, etc.) 1

Previous technological improvements and advancements have allowed certain behaviors to be performed in new ways2

(e.g. voice communication at a distance with the telephone)

1http://www.weirdworm.com/10-weird-ways-of-communicating/ 2http://science.opposingviews.com/technology-improved-communication-1207.html

Successful internet communication products will closely reflect popular analog behaviors

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The underlying behavior does not change with the technology according to Adaptive Structuration Theory1

Technology codifies rules for structures on which human social systems interact1 Product features define the embedded rules that can be used for structures

The internet is creating a set of new products which allow social communication behavior to be performed in new ways

Product features often reflect structures from general social structures1

Successful products will reflect popular behaviors from before the internet Products must take popular structures from general society and build them into features

Successful internet communication products will closely reflect popular analog behaviors

7 1Poole, M., & DeSanctis, G. (1990). Understanding the use of group decision support systems: The theory of adaptive structuration. In J. Fulk, & C. Steinfield (Eds.), Organizations and communication technology. (pp. 173-194). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc. doi: http://dx.doi.org.libproxy.mit.edu/10.4135/9781483325385.n8

1Poole, M., & DeSanctis, G. (1990). Understanding the use of group decision support systems: The theory of adaptive structuration. In J. Fulk, & C. Steinfield (Eds.), Organizations and communication technology. (pp. 173-194). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc. doi: http://dx.doi.org.libproxy.mit.edu/10.4135/9781483325385.n8

§  Technology provides a set of structures (feature set) for groups to interact on1

§  The technology defines the potential interactions1

§  Groups choose whether and how to use the technology in their lives1

§  Successful technologies will create value for users and mirror existing popular society structures

Key step: does product feature match with users’ existing behaviors and structures?

Interaction of social system and technology1 shows how design needs to reflect existing structures

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How do system dynamics help us understand communication product popularity over time?

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The four variables in an entrepreneur’s control that most impact likelihood of success are: 1.  Popularity of the underlying communication structure

and human behavior 2.  Product value independent of network effects 3.  Marketing effort 4.  Novelty

Marketing and novelty initiate product success but sustained product growth relies on the first variables.

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Until network effects take control, an entrepreneur can leverage novelty and marketing to get traction

§  Before network effects (R2, R3) come into play, entrepreneurs have four variables (in red) which they control!

§  Product and feature choice lead define novelty, product value, and popularity of human behavior variables!

§  Marketing spend can be a separate decision!

§  Until networks effects appear (they are delayed), these four factors control how rapidly users will join and leave!

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Network effects can occur with an unpopular behavior and low value product through marketing and novelty

•  Products built on features that are not designed to support popular behaviors struggle to get network effects!

•  If novelty is high enough, the user departure rate may be slow enough to allow network effects to occur!

•  Marketing in this case is critical to getting enough people on board for network effects!

•  As novelty wears off, these products might find user departures rise and network effects fall!

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Four main types of user patterns may emerge given a particular product feature

§  Even simple products and features that clearly reflect communication methods of the past can see exponential growth (R1 and R2 loops are strong)!

§  Novelty may kindle and steepen the initial growth, but such product features subsequently collapse (high User Departure Rate)!

§  When features reach maturity – no dropoff, but full saturation of user base that derives value – we see goal seeking patterns (B1 loop dominates)!

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Product features may layer in one product to create or inhibit product growth over time

§  As products evolve, new features are layered that augment, replace, or supplement existing features in the product!

§  Adding features to leverage past features that were based on novelty will see diminishing returns!

§  Adding features to leverage past features which support popular behaviors leads to a strong network effect

Thousands of social products and messaging applications are built each month But which should be made?

§  Disappearing, social game pictures, secret chat?1 §  Video, gif, photo mashups?2 §  Anonymous messaging apps?3

Further, which will have the popularity to remain long term?4,5 By determining the alignment of a product to existing behavior, we can assess the likelihood of success and explain whether a product or behavior will last

1http://rumrapp.com/, http://shotclock.net/ 2https://www.trioapp.co/ 3https://www.secret.ly/ 4http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/06/overrun-with-messaging-apps/ 5http://www.wired.com/2013/12/confusing-message/

These insights are powerful – long term success relies on reflecting popular historical human behaviors

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What is the framework for thinking about products and the human behaviors they support?

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Understand complexity and popularity of human behavior to identify the implementation needs and viability of a communication technology.

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Complexity of Analog Interaction (How hard is it to do)

Popularity of Analog

Interaction (How many people do

this)

Speaking pig latin

Share a picture

Creating artworks

Talking

Leave an anonymous message

Meet dating partners

Share an album of photos

Telling a secret

Gossip Rumors

Existing human social communication behaviors range in complexity and popularity

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Well implemented

Not implemented

Popular behavior

Unpopular behavior

Poorly implemented

§  Features and the products incorporating them will succeed or fail based on whether they support popular behaviors

§  Popular behaviors can be poorly implemented in features which limits their value to a product

§  We see opportunity in popular social behaviors that are not implemented well in current products

Not all product features align to a popular behavior or are implemented well

Feature Opportunity Space

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How do we apply this framework to examine whether products are aligned with existing behavior?

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Examine historical communication behaviors in a specific dimension and determine if a current messaging technology enables interaction in that space.

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App Name

Communication features categorized by dimension

How When Who

Basic texting Calling Photo/Video Virtual Reality Ephemeral One-tap messaging Anonymous Privacy Location based Social Businesses Third-party platform

WhatsApp ✔ ✔ ✔

Viber ✔ ✔ ✔

Instagram ✔

Snapchat ✔ ✔ ✔

Yo ✔

Fb Messenger ✔

TapTalk ✔

Whisper ✔

Frankly Chat ✔

WeChat ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Kakao ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Kik ✔ ✔

Telegram ✔

Wickr ✔ ✔

Twitter

LINE ✔

Secret ✔ ✔

Oculus VR ✔ ✔

Yik Yak ✔ ✔

Current social products have features that span across communication dimensions

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These products can be mapped across dimensions in different ways to identify gaps

1.  Consider which communication dimension the product is innovating:

Methodology for determining likelihood of communication product success

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Who? How? When?

-  Audience -  Networks -  Anonymity

-  Writing -  Voice -  Multi-sensory

-  Immediate -  Delayed -  Permanence

2.  Examine what historical communication technologies have evolved and enabled communication in that dimension over time


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Written language Transportation Voice

communication Internet Smart Phone

many-many

1-1

1-many

3.  How is communication in that dimension reflected in the current messaging space?


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Written language Transportation Voice

communication Internet Smart Phone

many-many

1-1

1-many

3a. Many key human social behaviors are reflected well: §  Talking ---- VoIP §  Seeing a person ---- Skype §  Writing a message ---- Email, iMessage


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Internet

3b. Is the current communication technology not reflecting a need? •  à High probability of failure •  à Unsustainable •  à Relies on novelty

•  Several key human social behaviors are not reflected well: •  Complex social interactions:

•  Secrets •  Rumors •  Gossip


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Internet

? ? ?

3c. Is there a need that is not reflected? •  à Opportunity

•  A few key human social behaviors are not reflected yet: •  Touchà ? •  Back channel/Telepathyà ?


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Internet

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Examples of product reflections

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Successfully reflected product: Snapchat

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The need: to share interact with people in a natural way including 1) with full attention at the moment of interaction 2) impermanency of memory What constitutes a Snapchat?

§  Know the person §  Share something about your life with them §  Interaction is low effort for both parties §  Messages disappear and cannot be shared §  Asynchronous interaction, but high attention given

How this Snapchat reflect real life encounters: §  Moments in real life are fleeting §  Most interactions are not permanently recorded §  Personal interaction with someone you know and value


A product based on an existing need and need with novelty will grow rapidly with some marketing. Why is ephemeral messaging popular?

§  Mirrors need to communicate without being recorded §  Lowers barriers to content production because automatic deletion reduces concerns about

quality §  The more people who will see something, the more quality invested to ‘look good’ (e.g. Instagram filters and

apps to test pictures with your friends before posting) §  Demands attention from the recipient which gives value to sender

§  Messages are sent to be received – senders value knowing their messages have impact


Snapchat is now valued at $21 billion and is still growing in users and value. Snapchat is now trying to extend its product into new areas to gain more consumer attention share.

§  Snapchat Stories were released in October 2013 with the intention of giving content a place to live on for a longer, but still temporary period

§  Later releases of Stories includes the ability for stories to be created with other people §  Snapchat released Snapcash in November 2014 to gain a part of the mobile payments

space which has been rapidly growing §  Feature’s popularity has been relatively low according to reports1,2

§  Snapchat Discover launched in January 2015 to monetize the platform §  Product saw over 1 million daily active users, declined to only 700K3 §  Attempts to make sharing the Discover videos easier may work


1http://www.businessinsider.com/what-millennials-think-of-snapchat-discover-2015-4?utm_source=API%27s+Need+to+Know+newsletter&utm_campaign=92d2708870-Need_to_Know_May_1_20155_1_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e3bf78af04-92d2708870-45802809 2http://www.inklingsnews.com/b/2015/03/27/snapcash-remains-unpopular-among-students/ 3http://techcrunch.com/2015/05/05/snapchat-discover-messages/

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Graph constructed from data in http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-we-estimate-snapchat-has-upwards-70-million-users-globa and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Snapchat


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§  Now that Snapchat has achieved a user base exceeding 100M MAUs, will it see a trajectory like Facebook’s (now well-beyond 1.4 billion users) or Twitter’s (now 300M MAUs)?!

§  All indications are that Snapchat will continue its growth given its success in evolving the product so far, similar to Facebook’s effectiveness on product!

Poorly reflected product: Secret

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Having a clever name and anonymous messaging doesn’t mean Secret is a good place for secrets What makes a Secret?

•  Don’t know who said it (but have some idea if they are near or a friend) •  Content is not about anyone you know (due to cyber-bulling prevention) •  No trust is given in sharing (your identity is not disclosed) •  No power is gained in receiving (recipient cannot hold secret over sharer) •  Secrets last forever in feed (secret is both unprotected and not secret)

What makes a real secret? •  Both parties know each other à power and trust are transmitted •  Information shared is of interest to both parties à meaningful interactions •  Shared information can be re-shared à up to recipient based on trust/value

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“Anonymish” messaging is predicated on sharing secret ideas with a community Anonymous messages (the analog reflection) are useful when

§  Sender is not important to value of message for receiver §  Sender wants to be heard but no one wants to listen §  Sender wants to communicate but does not want to be identified

Analog examples of analog anonymous message behavior occur in some subsections of society

§  Bathroom graffiti in high schools §  Extreme statements §  Hobos sharing information on houses through codes during the Depression

None of these are highly popular behaviors in mainstream society


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So, if sharing secret ideas in a community isn’t really a need, what happens? Anonymish messaging does not pass our test for sustainable long term success – the reflected behavior is not really that popular

§  The first canary has died – Secret is winding up operations1 §  Whisper and YikYak – do they have a future?

What explains the success of these types of products if they are not destined to be great?

§  We believe our System Dynamics perspective helps – novelty can carry a product for a while §  User acquisition grows fast enough to make up for user departures/inactivity in the beginning §  Novelty wears off and active user counts fall with not enough new users §  Is the only hope finding new novelties or is it possible to find valuable features to keep users?


40 1 h.p://www.wsj.com/ar;cles/anonymous-‐social-‐networking-‐app-‐secret-‐shuts-‐down-‐1430353006

But, telling secrets is popular – could there be an internet-based product for this behavior? What makes a real secret?

§  Both parties know each other ---- power and trust are transmitted §  Information shared is of interest to both parties ---- meaningful interactions §  Shared information can be re-shared ---- up to recipient based on trust/value §  Low traceability ---- trust is key to recipient in assessing value of information

So if we want to design an internet product to share secrets well, we need to consider these dynamics of real secrets. Product functions

§  Ephemerality – secrets are not often permanently posted or shared §  Provenance – must be clear who sends and received §  Re-shareability – must facilitate forward propagation of valuable information

Snapchat succeeds with ephemerality and provenance, but does not have re-shareablity

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Reflecting a non-existent need: ChatRoulette

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The “need” : to encounter/interact with strangers with no commitment or transaction involved.


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What constitutes a Chat Roulette encounter? §  Don’t know the person §  Non-transactional interaction §  No network, location or identity ties §  Ability to dismiss interaction with no consequences (not even awkwardness) §  Potential to interact in a non-constrained way

This “need” does not reflect popular real life behaviors: §  No possibility to continue the connection §  No minimal validity of location or network §  No location/context based meetings -> no shared demographics, less shared/meaningful

interactions In real life people meet strangers to:

§  Gain new sustainable connections in areas of interest §  Share meaningful information


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A product relying on novelty without a base in real human communication needs loses on user retention. Why is meeting new people without accountability, future potential, or shared current interest not sustainable?

§  With no accountability (no network, location ties) potential for abuse (indecent exposure) or abrupt disconnection (being ‘nexted’) is huge.

§  With no common demographic ties, content for interaction is mostly one-off or sensational encounters, rather than foundation for sustained interaction.

§  Positives of sensational encounters are undermined by the potential for unwanted nudity and potential rejections.

§  Sustainability is undermined by the fact that the interactions are ephemeral and are not grounded in shared context or interest and are missing potential for continuity.

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At its peak in early 2010, Chat Roulette had as many as 1.5 million users using the site at one time. Now lack of accountability and network connections threaten its viability.

§  RJ Metrics survey reveals 89% of users are male and 1/8 spins reveals unrequested nudity. §  June 2010 Chatroulette has its first month of reduced usership and Slate declares Chatroulette

dead. “Cause of death: penises” §  Chat Roulette threatens legal action and starts blocking IP addresses of reported offenders. §  Now, when users are flagged for inappropriate content, they are automatically transferred to

partner sites (like friendfinder.com) and Chatroulette earns referral traffic §  Later in 2010, topical and location-based channels (Channelroulette and Localroulette) are

introduced to segment users and provide more location ties. •  The adult channels become the most popular Chat Roulette channel.

§  Both efforts (transferring users and segmentation) attempt to remedy the accountability and network issues. But usership still lags.


46 WSJ: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2010/08/30/the-decline-and-fall-of-chatroulette/ RJ Metrics: http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/16/chatroulette-stats-male-perverts/ Salon: http://www.salon.com/2010/06/29/requiem_for_chatroulette/

Not yet fully reflected: Touch

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The human need for touch as communication: §  Primary form of human communication, pre-dates and has more importance than language

in human evolution. Enables social and biological development. 1 §  Studies show that touch builds cooperative relationships, increases likelihood of compliance,

calms by signaling safety, promotes trust and generosity, has significant therapeutic effects, and can trigger the release of oxytocin (love hormone). 2

Current uses of touch as emotional communication: §  Greeting, affection, support, empathy, anger, dominance, desire, encouragement, soothing.

Current uses of touch as functional communication: §  Direction, warning, increasing compliance.

Daily touch threshold: §  “We need 4 hugs a day for survival, 8 for maintenance, and 12 for growth.”3

1.  http://www.depauw.edu/learn/lab/publications/documents/touch/2006_Touch_The%20communicative_functions_of_touch_in_humans.pdf 2.  http://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/hands_on_research 3.  Satir, Virginia http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2014/02/06/hugging.aspx


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Existing touch messaging technologies: •  “Taptic” engine for tap messaging (Apple Watch)1 •  Feel someone’s heartbeat (Apple watch) •  Vibration messaging (in wearables, or in avocado app which ‘hugs’ by sending a

vibration to your partners smartphone when you hold yours to your heart) The future of touch messaging technologies:

•  Functional- haptic feedback for directional navigation, warnings. •  Emotional- multisensory internet for long distance relationships2, discreet messaging. •  Features include temperature, pressure, vibration, taste and smell:

•  Virtual hugs (hug a doll, person wearing a virtual cuddle coat feels overall pressure) •  Kissing machines transmit physical/tactile actions •  Send smell and touch by using magnetic coils to stimulate brain signals in receiver. Potential

to use this for touch as well, but the threshold is still very close to pain so more development needed2

1.  http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-apple-watch-real-touch-messaging-2014-9 2.  Adrian David Cheok, Keio University Mixed Reality Lab http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/the-multi-sensory-internet-brings-smell-taste-and-touch-to-the-web


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Mapping the communication product space

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Successful internet communication products must closely reflect popular analog behaviors.

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If we examine historical communication behaviors, we can determine if current messaging platforms successfully reflect those interactions.

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Internet

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Poor reflections result in failures. Missing reflections suggest opportunities.

We can then assess the complexity and popularity of human behavior to understand the implementation needs and viability of the technology.

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Well implemented

Not implemented

Popular structure

Unpopular structure

Poorly implemented

Feature Opportunity

Space

There is opportunity in popular social structures that are not implemented well.

This mapping identifies opportunity spaces for products and features that clearly reflect historically popular communication methods which enable a strong network effect and promote exponential growth.

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Social Media

Future opportunities in social communications