Upload
t2o-media
View
602
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 1
The Power of Social Data: Transforming Big Data
into Decisions
Andreas Weigend
1
Milano, 04 Dec 2013
Agenda1. Data and Decisions
Value of Data?
2. Amazon as Data Refinery
Equation of Business
3. Implications of Social Data Revolution
Audience Connected Individuals and Context
4. Summary Questions via Twitter, use@aweigend2
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 2
15 years ago: Connecting Pages (Google)
10 years ago: Connecting People (FB)
5 years ago: Connecting Apps (Apple)
Now: Connecting Data
3
Today, in a single day,
we are creating more data
than mankind did
from its beginning
through 2000
4
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 3
5
Mobile
Context: Many sensors
Identity: Proxy for person
Easy for advertiser to reach
user, but high cost of
interrupt if inappropriate
Easy for user to contribute
Social Data: Two Meanings
1. Relationships between people (“social graph”,
e.g., on Facebook or LinkedIn)
2. Data people share (or “socialize”, e.g., check‐
in, purchase, book review, picture)‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Note: Social Media differs from Social Data (e.g., GPS)6
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 4
• Google has changed the way a billion people
think about information
• Facebook has changed the way a billion people
think about identity
• Amazon has changed the way a billion people
think about purchases7
Social Data Revolution
1. Transport energy Industrial Revolution
Production
2. Transport bits Information Revolution
Communication
3. Create (and share) bits Social Data Rev
8
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 5
Data and Decisions
Rule #1:
Start with a question, not with the data
E.g., Which route do I take?
E.g., Who do I work with?
9
MindsetMindset
Skillset
Toolset
Dataset
10
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 6
Big Data: Mindset
to turn Mess into Decisions
11
<when>2013‐05‐28T00:17:08.341‐07:00</when><gx:coord>11.0955646 47.4944176 0</gx:coord><when>2013‐05‐28T00:46:14.410‐07:00</when><gx:coord>11.0894932 47.4880099 0</gx:coord><when>2013‐05‐28T00:47:14.425‐07:00</when><gx:coord>11 1069126 47 5154249 0</gx:coord>
12
Stanford
Berkeley
SF Home
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 7
Imagine…
13
…you had your geolocation from the last
decade readily available at your fingertips
• What question would you ask?
• How would knowing that it is recorded 24/7
change your behavior?
London1854
14
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 8
google.com/history
17
15,317searches
What data would you pay for most?
1. Geolocation: Where did a customer go?
2. Search history: What did she search for?
3. Purchase history: What did she buy?
4. Social graph: Who are her friends?
5. Demographics and similar attributes18
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 9
Big Data = Mindset
to turn Mess into Decisions
19
• External (facing the outside)
• Internal (within the company)
The Journey of Amazon
What changed?
20
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 10
The Journey of Amazon
What changed?
• Algorithms Data
• AI
• BI
• CI
• DI21
The Journey of Amazon
What changed?
• “Ask for forgiveness,not for permission”
• True customer‐centricity
• Recommendations and Discovery
What did not change?
• Algorithms Data
• AI
• BI
• CI
• DI22
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 11
Agenda1. Data and Decisions
Value of Data?
2. Amazon as Data Refinery
Equation of Business
3. Implications of Social Data Revolution
Audience Connected Individuals and Context
4. Summary Questions via Twitter, use@aweigend23
Goal: Help people make better decisions
Data strategy: Make it trivially easy to
Contribute
Connect
Collaborate24
Amazon as Data Refinery
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 12
Equation of Business
• Expresses business strategy, values etc.
• Needed for evaluation of experiments
Rule #2:
Base the equation of your business on
metrics that matter to your customers
25
Rule #3:
Focus on decisions and actions, and design
for feedback
26
Equation of Business
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 13
5 Stages of Amazon Recommendations
1. Manual (Experts)
2. Implicit (Clicks, Searches)
3. Explicit (Reviews, Lists)
4. Situation (Local, Mobile)
5. Social graph (Connections)27
Social Commerce
Amazon’s Share the Love
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 14
The 4 C’s
• Content
• Context
• Connection
• Conversation
29
Markets are Conversations
Conversations are Markets
30
2000
2013
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 15
Company
Consumers
Where are the Conversations?
Agenda1. Data and Decisions
Value of Data?
2. Amazon as Data Refinery
Equation of Business
3. Implications of Social Data Revolution
Audience Connected Individuals and Context
4. Summary Questions via Twitter, use@aweigend32
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 16
Data sources for marketinga new phone product
Data sources for marketinga new phone product
Social Graph
(Who called whom?)
Segmentation
(Demographics, Loyalty)
Social GraphSegmentation
0.28%
Adoptionrate
1.35%
4.8x
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 17
Non‐Social: Audience
Social: Connected Individual
35
Shift in Mindset
“On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog”
1993
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 18
“On the Internet, everybody knows you’re a dog”
2013
Shift in Identity
Non‐social: Attributes
Social: Relationships
38
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 19
Shift in Business Models
Non‐social: hotels.com, craigslist
Social: airbnb, lyft, relay rides,
39
E, Me, We!1. Digitize: E‐commerce
Focus on company and products
2. Share: Me‐commerce
Focus on consumer and attributes
3. Connect: We‐c0mmerce
Focus on connection between consumers40
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 20
Rule #4:
Embrace transparency: Make it trivially easy
for people to connect, contribute, and
collaborate
41
Connected Individuals
Agenda1. Data and Decisions
2. Amazon as Data Refinery
3. Implications of Social Data Revolution
4. Outlook and Summary
Last chance to tweet questions, @aweigend42
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 21
GLΛSS
43
The 4 Data Rules 1. Start with a question, not with the data
2. Base the equation of your business on metrics that
matter to your customers
3. Focus on decisions and actions, design for
feedback
4. Embrace transparency: Make it trivially easy for
people to connect, contribute, and collaborate 45
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 22
Some Data Beliefs1. Let people do what people are good at, and
computers do what computers are good at
2. Build stuff that enables a future you want to live in
3. Give data to get data
46
Questions for you
1. Do your customers understand the
value they get when they give you data?
2. Does your product or service get better
over time and with data, or worse?
47
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 23
Questions for me?
Andreas Weigend
weigend.com
Social Data Lab
Data Scientist• Data literate
• Able to handle large data sets
• Understands domain and modeling
• Want to communicate and collaborate
• Curious with “can‐do” attitude49
Andreas Weigend@aweigend
12/04/13
www.weigend.com Handout page 24
Data Science vs Business Intelligence
50
Data Science vs Business Intelligence
51