Zero to One by Peter Thiel & Blake Masters

Resume of the book graphs @stefania_druga

Technology vs Globalization

Vertical intensive progress

Horizontal extensive progress

globalization (1 to n)

technology (0 to 1)

Perception: firms are similar

Perfect competition

Monopoly

FirmA

FirmB

Reality: differences are deep

Perfect competition

Monopoly

FirmA

FirmB

Square payment copycatsfor mobile credit card readers

Squareoriginal solution

2010

NetSecure Intuit Paypal

U.S.,1950s-1960s

U.S.,1982-present

China,present

Europe,present

World view of the future

Definite Indefinite

Optimistic

Pessimistic

U.S.,1950s-1960s

U.S.,1982-present

China,present

Europe,present

World view of the future

Definite Indefinite

Optimistic

Pessimistic

Investments

Savings

High

High

Low

Low

Hegel,Marx

Nozick,Rawls

Plato,Aristotle

Epicurus,Lucretius

Philosophy view of the future

Definite Indefinite

Optimistic

Pessimistic

Secrets

Conventions Secrets Mysteries

Easy Hard Impossible

Mafia mechanisms

0 to 1

Consultants(nihilism)

Cults (dogmatism)

How to sell your product ?

Dead zone

Viral Marketing Sales ComplexSales

1 $ 100 $ 10.000 $ 10 mil $

Consumer SME Big Gov & corp

Substitution:“The world is

flat”

Mimetic consumer

competition

Mostly complementary

Machinesdon’t demand:all value goes

to people

Man vs Machine

Supply(of labor)

Demand(for resources)

Globalization(other humans)

Technology(better computers)

Future of work ?

1. The Engineering question: Can you create breakthrough technology instead of incremental improvements?

2. The Timing question: Is now the right time to start your particular business?3. The monopoly question: Are starting with a big share from a small market?4. The people question: Do you have the right team?5. The distribution question: Do you have a way to deliver your product?6. The durability question: Will your market position be defensible 10 and 20 years into the future?7. The secret question: Have you identified an unique opportunity that others don't see?

7 questions every business should answer

Uncontrollable organisms Perfectly determined code

Poorly understood, naturally Well understood, artificial

Indefinite, random Definite, engineering

Heavily regulated Basically unregulated

Expensive (>$1BN per drug) Cheap (a little seed money)

High-salaried, unaligned lab drones Committed entrepreneurial hackers

Indefinite vs Definite Optimism for startups

Biotech Startups Software startups

Subject

Environment

Approach

Regulation

Cost

Team

People normal distribution of traits

frequency

averageweak/nerdidiot savantdisagreeable

outsiderpoor

infamous

strong/athletepolymath

charismaticinsider

richfamous

Founders distribution of traits

frequency

averageweak/nerdidiot savantdisagreeable

outsiderpoor

infamous

strong/athletepolymath

charismaticinsider

richfamous

actuallydifferent

othersexaggerate

theyexaggerate

developextreme traits

Explanation Founders distribution of traits

Four scenarios for the future:

• recurrent collapse• plateau• extinction• takeoff

Conclusion: Stagnation vs Singularity