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Modeling Human Judgments with Quantum Probability
Theory
Jennifer S. TruebloodUniversity of California, Irvine
Thursday, September 5, 13
Outline
1.Comparing Quantum and Classical Probability
2.Conjunction and Disjunction Fallacies
3. Similarity Judgments
4. Order Effects in Inference
Thursday, September 5, 13
Comparing Quantum and Classical Probability
Thursday, September 5, 13
Sets versus Vectors
Classical Probability Quantum Probability
ā¢ Sample space S is a set of N points
ā¢ Hilbert space H: spanned by a set S of N basis vectors
ā¢ Event A ā S
ā¢ If A ā S and B ā S
ā¢ Ā¬A = S/A
ā¢ A ā© B
ā¢ A āŖ Bā¢ Events in S form a Boolean algebra
ā¢ Event A = span(SA ā S)
ā¢ If A = span(SA ā S), B = span(SB ā S)
ā¢ Aā„ = span(S/SA)ā¢ A ā B = span(SA ā SB)
ā¢ A ā B = span(SA ā SB)
ā¢ Events form a Boolean algebra if the basis for H is fixed
Thursday, September 5, 13
Comparing Probability Functions
Classical Probability Quantum Probability
Thursday, September 5, 13
Conditional Probability
Classical Probability Quantum Probability
Thursday, September 5, 13
Distributive Axiom
Classical Probability Quantum Probability
Thursday, September 5, 13
Compatibility
Classical Probability Quantum Probability
Thursday, September 5, 13
Conjunction and Disjunction Fallacies
Thursday, September 5, 13
Conjunction and Disjunction Fallacies
ā¢ Story: Linda majored in philosophy, was concerned about social justice, and was active in the anti-nuclear movement (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983)
p(feminist) > p(feminist or bank teller) > p(feminist and bank teller) > p(bank teller)
Disjunction Fallacy Conjunction Fallacy
ā¢ Task: Rate the probability of the following events (Morier & Borgida, 1984)
ā¢ Linda is a feminist (.83)
ā¢ Linda is a bank teller (.26)
ā¢ Linda is a feminist and a bank teller (.36)
ā¢ Linda is a feminist or a bank teller (.60)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Geometric Account of the Conjunction Fallacy
ā¢ B = bank teller; F = feminist B
BĢ
FĢ
F| i
Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E., Frano, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment error. Psychological Review, 118, 193-218.
| i = .16|Bi ļæ½ .99|BĢi|Bi = .31|F i+ .95|FĢ i|BĢi = .95|F i ļæ½ .31|FĢ i
| i = 0.46|FĢ i ļæ½ .89|F i
p(F ) = (ļæ½.89)2 = 0.79
p(B) = (.16)2 = 0.026p(B|F ) = (.31)2 = 0.096
p(F )p(B|F ) = 0.076
{P(F āand thenā B):
Thursday, September 5, 13
Analytic Result for the Conjunction Fallacy
ā¢ B = bank teller; F = feministp(B) = ||PB | i||2
= ||PB Ā· I Ā· | i||2= ||PB(PF + PFĢ )| i||2= ||PBPF | i+ PBPFĢ | i||2= ||PBPF | i||2 + ||PBPFĢ | i||2 + IntB
B
BĢ
FĢ
F| i
Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E., Frano, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment error. Psychological Review, 118, 193-218.
Thursday, September 5, 13
Analytic Result for the Conjunction Fallacy
ā¢ B = bank teller; F = feministp(B) = ||PB | i||2
= ||PB Ā· I Ā· | i||2= ||PB(PF + PFĢ )| i||2= ||PBPF | i+ PBPFĢ | i||2= ||PBPF | i||2 + ||PBPFĢ | i||2 + IntB
p(F \B) = p(F )p(B|F )= ||PBPF | i||2
B
BĢ
FĢ
F| i
Feminist is considered first because it is more representative of Linda
Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E., Frano, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment error. Psychological Review, 118, 193-218.
Thursday, September 5, 13
Analytic Result for the Conjunction Fallacy
ā¢ B = bank teller; F = feministp(B) = ||PB | i||2
= ||PB Ā· I Ā· | i||2= ||PB(PF + PFĢ )| i||2= ||PBPF | i+ PBPFĢ | i||2= ||PBPF | i||2 + ||PBPFĢ | i||2 + IntB
p(F \B) = p(F )p(B|F )= ||PBPF | i||2
p(F \B) > p(B) =) IntB < ļæ½||PBPFĢ | i||2
B
BĢ
FĢ
F| i
Same type of analysis can be used to derive the disjunction fallacy in a completely
consistent way
Feminist is considered first because it is more representative of Linda
Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E., Frano, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment error. Psychological Review, 118, 193-218.
Thursday, September 5, 13
Interference
ā¢ Int = p(B) - [p(F)p(B | F) + p(~F)p(B | ~F)] < 0
ā¢ Direct route is not as effective for retrieving conclusion as the sum of the indirect routes
ā¢ Availability type mechanism
Thursday, September 5, 13
Disjunction FallacyLinda is not āa bank teller or feministā
iff
Linda is ānot a bank tellerā and ānot a feministā
Fallacy occurs when
p(F) > p(F or B) = 1 - p(~B)p(~F | ~B)
that is when
p(~F) < p(~B)p(~F | ~B) Int < 0
Thursday, September 5, 13
Explaining Both Fallacies
ā¢ Conjunction fallacy requires
2 Ā·Re[(PBPF )T Ā· (PBPFĢ )] < ļæ½p(FĢ )p(B|FĢ )
ā¢ Disjunction fallacy requires
2 Ā·Re[(PFĢPB )T Ā· (PFĢPBĢ )] < ļæ½p(BĢ)p(FĢ |BĢ)
ā¢ Both together
p(B)p(F |B) < p(F )p(B|F )
Thursday, September 5, 13
Similarity Judgments
Thursday, September 5, 13
Similarity-Distance Hypothesis
Similarity is a decreasing function of distance
Thursday, September 5, 13
Distance Axioms
ā¢ D(X,Y) > 0, X ā Y
ā¢ D(X,Y) = 0, X = Y
ā¢ D(X,Y) = D(Y,X) symmetry
ā¢ D(X,Y) + D(Y,Z) > D(X,Z) triangle inequality
Thursday, September 5, 13
Asymmetry Finding (Tversky, 1977)
ā¢ How similar is Red China to North Korea?
ā¢ Sim(C,K)
ā¢ How similar is North Korea to Red China?
ā¢ Sim(K,C)
ā¢ Sim(K,C) > Sim(C,K)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Tverskyās Similarity Feature Model
ā¢ Based on differential weighting of the common and distinctive features
ā¢ Weights are free parameters and alternative values lead to violations of symmetry in the observed or opposite directions
!"#"$%&"'( !,! = !" ! ā© ! ā !" ! ā ! ā !"(! ā !)!
Thursday, September 5, 13
Quantum Model of Similarity
Pothos, E., Busemeyer, J. R., & Trueblood, J. S. (in review). A quantum geometric model of similarity
sim(A,B) = ||PBPA| i||2
Thursday, September 5, 13
A quantum account of asymmetry
C hina
Korea Korea
C hina
sim(C,K) = ||PKPC | i||2
= ||PK | Ci||2||PC | i||2sim(K,C) = ||PCPK | i||2
= ||PC | Ki||2||PK | i||2
||PK | i||2 = ||PC | i||2
||PC | Ki||2 > ||PK | Ci||2 Projection to a subspace of larger dimensionality will preserve more of the amplitude of the state vector
State vector is assumed to be āneutralā
Thursday, September 5, 13
Triangle Inequality (Tversky, 1977)
ā¢ R = Russia, J = Jamaica, C = Cuba
D(R,J) < D(R,C) + D(C, J) ā Sim(R,J) > Sim(R, C) + Sim(C,J)
ā¢ Findings
1. Sim(R,C) is large (politically)
2. Sim(C,J) is large (geography)
3. Sim(R,J) is small
ā¢ How can Sim(R,J) be so small when Sim(R,C) and Sim(C,J) are both large?
Thursday, September 5, 13
Quantum Account of the Triangle Inequality
Com
mun
ist
Not c ommunist
C aribbean
Not C a ribbea n
Russia
J ama ic
aCub
a
Sim(R, J) / ||PJ | Ri||2 = cos
2(āRC + āCJ) = 0.33
Sim(C, J) / ||PJ | Ci||2 = cos
2āCJ = 0.79
Sim(R,C) / ||PC | Ri||2 = cos
2āRC = 0.79
Thursday, September 5, 13
Order Effects in Inference
Thursday, September 5, 13
Order Effects
ā Thursday, September 5, 13
Order Effects in Inferenceā¢ Order effects in jury decision-making:
P(guilt | prosecution, defense) ā P(guilty | defense, prosecution)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Order Effects in Inferenceā¢ Order effects in jury decision-making:
P(guilt | prosecution, defense) ā P(guilty | defense, prosecution)
ā¢ The events in simple Bayesian models do not contain order information and they commute:
P (G|P,D) = P (G|D,P )
Thursday, September 5, 13
Order Effects in Inferenceā¢ Order effects in jury decision-making:
P(guilt | prosecution, defense) ā P(guilty | defense, prosecution)
ā¢ The events in simple Bayesian models do not contain order information and they commute:
ā¢ To account for order effects, Bayesian models need to introduce order information:
ā¢ event O1 that P is presented before D
ā¢ event O2 that D is presented before P
P (G|P \D \O1) 6= P (G|P \D \O2)
P (G|P,D) = P (G|D,P )
Thursday, September 5, 13
A Quantum Explanation of Order Effects
ā¢ Quantum probability theory provides a natural way to model order effects
ā¢ Two key principles:
ā¢ Compatibility
ā¢ Unicity
Thursday, September 5, 13
Compatibility
ā¢ Compatible events
ā¢ Two events can be realized simultaneously
ā¢ There is no order information
Thursday, September 5, 13
Compatibility
ā¢ Compatible events
ā¢ Two events can be realized simultaneously
ā¢ There is no order information
ā¢ Incompatible events
ā¢ Two events cannot be realized simultaneously
ā¢ Events are processed sequentially
Thursday, September 5, 13
Compatibility
ā¢ Compatible events
ā¢ Two events can be realized simultaneously
ā¢ There is no order information
ā¢ Incompatible events
ā¢ Two events cannot be realized simultaneously
ā¢ Events are processed sequentially
} ClassicProbability
Thursday, September 5, 13
Compatibility
ā¢ Compatible events
ā¢ Two events can be realized simultaneously
ā¢ There is no order information
ā¢ Incompatible events
ā¢ Two events cannot be realized simultaneously
ā¢ Events are processed sequentially
} }QuantumProbability
ClassicProbability
Thursday, September 5, 13
Unicityā¢ Classical probability theory obeys the
principle of unicity - there is a single space that provides a complete and exhaustive description of all events
ā¢ Quantum probability theory allows for multiple sample spaces
ā¢ Incompatible events are represented by separate sample spaces that are pasted together in a coherent way
Thursday, September 5, 13
Exampleā¢ Voting Event
1. democrat (outcome D)
2. republican (outcome R)
3. independent (outcome I)
ā¢ Ideology Event:
1. liberal (outcome L)
2. conservative (outcome C)
3. moderate (outcome M)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Vector Space For Incompatible Events
ā¢ Represented by two basis for the same 3 dimensional vector spaceD
R
I
C
M
L ā¢ Ideology Basis:
L = liberal
C = conservative
M = moderate
ā¢ Voting Basis:
D = democrat
R = republican
I = independent
ā¢ Ideology Basis is a unitary transformation of the Voting Basis:
Id = {U |Di, U |Ri, U |Ii}
V = {|Di, |Ri, |Ii} Id = {|Li, |Ci, |Mi}
Thursday, September 5, 13
What if Voting and Ideology are Compatible?
p(L) p(C) p(M)
p(D) p(D ā© L) p(D ā© C) p(D ā© M)
p(R) p(R ā© L) p(R ā© C) p(R ā© M)
p(I) p(I ā© L) p(I ā© C) p(I ā© M)
Large nine dimensional sample space
Classical probability representation
Thursday, September 5, 13
Multiple Sample Spaces
ā¢ Quantum probability does not require probabilities to be assigned to all joint events
ā¢ Incompatible events result in a low dimensional vector space
ā¢ Quantum probability provides a simple and efficient way to evaluate events within human processing capabilities
Thursday, September 5, 13
When are events Compatible versus Incompatible?
It is hypothesized, that incompatible representations are adopted when
1. situations are uncertain and individuals do not have a wealth of past experience
2. information is provided by different sources with different points of view
Thursday, September 5, 13
Experiment 1: Order Effects in Criminal Inference
ā¢ 291 participants read eight fictitious criminal cases and reported the likelihood of the defendantās guilt (between 0 and 1):
1.Before reading the prosecution or defense
2. After reading either the prosecution or defense
3. After reading the remaining case
Thursday, September 5, 13
Experiment 1: Order Effects in Criminal Inference
ā¢ 291 participants read eight fictitious criminal cases and reported the likelihood of the defendantās guilt (between 0 and 1):
1.Before reading the prosecution or defense
2. After reading either the prosecution or defense
3. After reading the remaining case
ā¢ Two strength levels for each case: strong (S) and weak (W)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Experiment 1: Order Effects in Criminal Inference
ā¢ 291 participants read eight fictitious criminal cases and reported the likelihood of the defendantās guilt (between 0 and 1):
1.Before reading the prosecution or defense
2. After reading either the prosecution or defense
3. After reading the remaining case
ā¢ Two strength levels for each case: strong (S) and weak (W)
ā¢ Eight total sequential judgments (2 cases x 2 orders x 2 strengths)
Thursday, September 5, 13
ExamplePeople v. Robins
Indictment: The defendant Janice Robins is charged with stealing a motor vehicle.
Facts: On the night of June 10th, a blue Oldsmobile was stolen from the Quick Sell car lot. The defendant was arrested the following day aFer the police received an anonymous Gp.
Thursday, September 5, 13
ExamplePeople v. Robins
Indictment: The defendant Janice Robins is charged with stealing a motor vehicle.
Here is a summary of the prosecuGonās case:
ā¢Security cameras at the Quick Sell car lot have footage of a woman matching Robinās descripGon driving the blue Oldsmobile from the lot on the night of June 10th.
Thursday, September 5, 13
ExamplePeople v. Robins
Indictment: The defendant Janice Robins is charged with stealing a motor vehicle.
Here is a summary of the prosecuGonās case:
ā¢Security cameras at the Quick Sell car lot have footage of a woman matching Robinās descripGon driving the blue Oldsmobile from the lot on the night of June 10th.
ā¢During the day on June 10th, Robins had come to the Quick Sell car lot and had talked to Vincent Brown, the owner, about buying the blue Oldsmobile but leF without purchasing the car.
ā¢The car was found outside of the Dollar General. Robins is an employee of the Dollar General.
Thursday, September 5, 13
ExamplePeople v. Robins
Indictment: The defendant Janice Robins is charged with stealing a motor vehicle.
Here is a summary of the defenseās case:ā¢Robinsā roommate, Beth Stall, was with Robins at home on the night of June 10th. Stall claims that Robins never leF their home.
Thursday, September 5, 13
ExamplePeople v. Robins
Indictment: The defendant Janice Robins is charged with stealing a motor vehicle.
Here is a summary of the defenseās case:ā¢Robinsā roommate, Beth Stall, was with Robins at home on the night of June 10th. Stall claims that Robins never leF their home.
ā¢Robins recently inherited a large sum of money. While interested in acquiring a new car, she has no reason to steal one.
ā¢Robins has no criminal convicGons.
Thursday, September 5, 13
Exp. 1 Results
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1SD versus SP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
SP,SDSD,SP
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1SD versus WP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
WP,SDSD,WP
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1WD versus SP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
SP,WDWD,SP
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1WD versus WP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
WP,WDWD,WP
Trueblood, J. S. & Busemeyer, J. R. (2011). A quantum probability account of order effects in inference. Cognitive Science, 35, 1518-1552.
Thursday, September 5, 13
Modeling Order Effects
ā¢ Two models of order effects:
1. Belief-adjustment model (Hogarth & Einhorn, 1992)
ā¢ Accounts for order effects by either adding or averaging evidence
Thursday, September 5, 13
Modeling Order Effects
ā¢ Two models of order effects:
1. Belief-adjustment model (Hogarth & Einhorn, 1992)
ā¢ Accounts for order effects by either adding or averaging evidence
2. Quantum inference model (Trueblood & Busemeyer, 2011):
ā¢ Accounts for order effects by transforming a state vector with different sequences of operators for different orderings of information
Thursday, September 5, 13
Belief-Adjustment Modelā¢ The belief-adjustment model assumes individuals update beliefs by a
sequence of anchoring-and-adjustment processes:
ā¢ 0 ā¤ Ck ā¤ 1is the degree of belief in the defendantās guilt after case k
ā¢ s(xk) is the strength of case k
ā¢ R is a reference point
ā¢ 0 ā¤ wk ā¤ 1 is an adjustment weight for case k
Ck = Ckļæ½1 + wk Ā· (s(xk)ļæ½R)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Belief-Adjustment Modelā¢ The belief-adjustment model assumes individuals update beliefs by a
sequence of anchoring-and-adjustment processes:
ā¢ 0 ā¤ Ck ā¤ 1is the degree of belief in the defendantās guilt after case k
ā¢ s(xk) is the strength of case k
ā¢ R is a reference point
ā¢ 0 ā¤ wk ā¤ 1 is an adjustment weight for case k
ā¢ Differences in evidence encoding result in two versions of the model:
1. adding model
2. averaging model
Ck = Ckļæ½1 + wk Ā· (s(xk)ļæ½R)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Quantum Inference Model
ā¢ Two complementary hypotheses: h1 = guilty and h2 = not guilty
ā¢ The prosecution (P) presents evidence for guilt (e+)
ā¢ The defense (D) presents evidence for innocence (e-)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Quantum Inference Model
ā¢ Two complementary hypotheses: h1 = guilty and h2 = not guilty
ā¢ The prosecution (P) presents evidence for guilt (e+)
ā¢ The defense (D) presents evidence for innocence (e-)
ā¢ The patterns hi ā ej define a 4-D vector space
Thursday, September 5, 13
Quantum Inference Model
ā¢ Two complementary hypotheses: h1 = guilty and h2 = not guilty
ā¢ The prosecution (P) presents evidence for guilt (e+)
ā¢ The defense (D) presents evidence for innocence (e-)
ā¢ The patterns hi ā ej define a 4-D vector space
ā¢ Jurors consider three points of view: neutral, prosecutorās, and defenseās
ā¢ Basis vectors for the three points of view
1.neutral:
2.prosecutorās:
3.defenseās:
|Niji
|Piji
|Diji
Thursday, September 5, 13
Changes in Perspective
ā¢ Unitary transformations relate one point of view to another and correspond to an individualās shifts in perspective
Thursday, September 5, 13
State Revision ā¢ Suppose the prosecution presents evidence (e+) favoring guilt
2
664
!h1^e+
!h1^eļæ½
!h2^e+
!h2^eļæ½
3
775 =)
2
664
āµh1^e+
āµh1^eļæ½
āµh2^e+
āµh2^eļæ½
3
775 =)
2
664
āµh1^e+
0āµh2^e+
0
3
775
Neutral Prosecution
Prosecution
Upn Positive Evidence
Thursday, September 5, 13
State Revision ā¢ Suppose the prosecution presents evidence (e+) favoring guilt
2
664
!h1^e+
!h1^eļæ½
!h2^e+
!h2^eļæ½
3
775 =)
2
664
āµh1^e+
āµh1^eļæ½
āµh2^e+
āµh2^eļæ½
3
775 =)
2
664
āµh1^e+
0āµh2^e+
0
3
775
Neutral Prosecution
Prosecution
Upn Positive Evidence
ā¢ Projection is normalized to ensure that the length of the new state equals one
ā¢ When the individual is questioned about the probability of guilt, the revised state is projected onto the guilty subspace
Thursday, September 5, 13
State Revision ā¢ Now, suppose the defense presents evidence (e-) favoring innocence
Prosecution
Negative Evidence
2
664
āµh1^e+
0āµh2^e+
0
3
775 =)
2
664
ļæ½h1^e+
ļæ½h1^eļæ½
ļæ½h2^e+
ļæ½h2^eļæ½
3
775 =)
2
664
0ļæ½h1^eļæ½
0ļæ½h2^eļæ½
3
775
Defense Defense
Udp
Thursday, September 5, 13
State Revision ā¢ Now, suppose the defense presents evidence (e-) favoring innocence
Prosecution
Negative Evidence
ā¢ Normalize the project and project onto the guilty subspace
ā¢ A total of 4 parameters are used to define all of the unitary transformations
2
664
āµh1^e+
0āµh2^e+
0
3
775 =)
2
664
ļæ½h1^e+
ļæ½h1^eļæ½
ļæ½h2^e+
ļæ½h2^eļæ½
3
775 =)
2
664
0ļæ½h1^eļæ½
0ļæ½h2^eļæ½
3
775
Defense Defense
Udp
Thursday, September 5, 13
Example Fits
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Quantum Model: SD versus SP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
SP,SD (data)SD,SP (data)SP,SD (QI)SD,SP (QI)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Quantum Model: SD versus WP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
WP,SD (data)SD,WP (data)WP,SD (QI)SD,WP (QI)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Averaging Model: SD versus SP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
SP,SD (data)SD,SP (data)SP,SD (Avg)SD,SP (Avg)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Averaging Model: SD versus WP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
WP,SD (data)SD,WP (data)WP,SD (Avg)SD,WP (Avg)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Example Fits
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Quantum Model: SD versus SP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
SP,SD (data)SD,SP (data)SP,SD (QI)SD,SP (QI)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Quantum Model: SD versus WP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
WP,SD (data)SD,WP (data)WP,SD (QI)SD,WP (QI)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Averaging Model: SD versus SP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
SP,SD (data)SD,SP (data)SP,SD (Avg)SD,SP (Avg)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Averaging Model: SD versus WP
Prob
abilit
y of
Gui
lt
WP,SD (data)SD,WP (data)WP,SD (Avg)SD,WP (Avg)
Thursday, September 5, 13
Fits to the Dataā¢ Three models (averaging, adding, and quantum) were fit to twelve data points
for eight crime scenarios
ā¢ All three models have the same number of parameters (i.e., 4)
ā¢ R2 values for three models:
ā¢ Averaging: R2 = 0.76
ā¢ Adding: R2 = 0.98
ā¢ Quantum: R2 = 0.98
Thursday, September 5, 13
Quantum versus Adding
ā¢Need a new experiment to disGnguish the quantum and adding models
ā¢The āirrefutable defenseā experiment
ā¢ProsecuGon is strong, but defense is irrefutable
Thursday, September 5, 13
Experiment 2: Irrefutable Defense
ā¢ Indictment: The defendant Paul Jackson is charged with robbing an art museum.
Facts: On December 12th, a burglar broke into the Central City Art Museum. The alarm at the museum noGfied police of the break-Āāin at 8:00 pm that night. Paul Jackson was arrested the next day when the police received an anonymous Gp.
Thursday, September 5, 13
Experiment 2: Irrefutable Defense
Indictment: The defendant Paul Jackson is charged with robbing an art museum.
Here is a summary of the prosecuGonās case:
ā¢Jackson frequently visits the Central City Art Museum, and a security guard told police he saw a man matching Jacksonās descripGon near the museum around 8:00 pm on the night of the burglary. Another witness told police they saw a man matching the defendants descripGon running from the museum a li\le aFer 8:00 pm.
Thursday, September 5, 13
Experiment 2: Irrefutable Defense
Indictment: The defendant Paul Jackson is charged with robbing an art museum.
Here is a summary of the defenseās case:
ā¢Jackson was teaching a class on the opposite side of town at Central City University between 7 and 9 pm on the night of the burglary. There were fiFy students present at his class that evening. This parGcular class meets three Gmes a week, and the students are well acquainted with Jackson. Furthermore, Jackson has an idenGcal twin brother who has a criminal record
Thursday, September 5, 13
A Priori Predictionsā¢ Quantum model predicts that the prosecution will produce a major effect
when presented first, but no effect when presented after the irrefutable defense
ā¢ The adding model predicts that the prosecution will have the same effect in both situations
Thursday, September 5, 13
A Priori Predictionsā¢ Quantum model predicts that the prosecution will produce a major effect
when presented first, but no effect when presented after the irrefutable defense
ā¢ The adding model predicts that the prosecution will have the same effect in both situations
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20BeliefāAdjustment Model
Con
fiden
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P,D (data)D,P (data)P,D (BāA)D,P (BāA)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
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20Quantum Model
Con
fiden
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lt
P,D (data)D,P (data)P,D (QI)D,P (QI)
N = 164Thursday, September 5, 13
A Priori Predictionsā¢ Quantum model predicts that the prosecution will produce a major effect
when presented first, but no effect when presented after the irrefutable defense
ā¢ The adding model predicts that the prosecution will have the same effect in both situations
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
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20BeliefāAdjustment Model
Con
fiden
ce in
Gui
lt
P,D (data)D,P (data)P,D (BāA)D,P (BāA)
Before Either Case After the First Case After Both Cases0
2
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20Quantum Model
Con
fiden
ce in
Gui
lt
P,D (data)D,P (data)P,D (QI)D,P (QI)
N = 164Thursday, September 5, 13
Thank You
ā¢ Whatās coming next...
ā¢ Quantum Dynamics
ā¢ Disjunction Effect and Violations of Savage's Sure Thing Principle
ā¢ Comparing Quantum and Markov Models with the Prisonerās Dilemma Game
Thursday, September 5, 13