13
BETTING MARCH MADNESS Pure genius advice from OffshoreInsiders.com

College basketball betting

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Betting on best March Madness picks and preview

Citation preview

Page 1: College basketball betting

BETTING MARCH MADNESS

Pure genius advice from OffshoreInsiders.com

Page 2: College basketball betting

BASKETBALLHANDICAPPER

Winning in March is not just about the NCAA Tournament.

The NIT and now especially the uber consolation

tournaments CIT, and CBI actually have offered countless

motivational discrepancies that even the minor bowls don’t

present with such frequency.

However a “March of Dimes” must begin with triumph in

the conference tournaments.  

Here is an inventory of parameters to look for:

Page 3: College basketball betting

Dictionary: Very high on our list of Golden Rules is how a neutral

game is exactly that. It is neither a home game nor a road game for

either team. Ever time I hear a tout spout to weigh road performance

more heavily when handicapping a neutral court game, I realize there

will always be suckers around to finance the bookmakers for us.

“Home court advantage” is accurately named. It is more often a home

crowd can kick start the home team than rattle the road squad. That

being said, as teams are becoming more freshmen laden, “road court

disadvantage” is more of a factor in recent years, especially at the

beginning of the season.

Page 4: College basketball betting

VEGAS INSIDER

However, that is part of the point. Young teams have the highest

upside and improve as the year goes on, especially on the road.

Veteran teams are generally good road bets early, but just as their

value rises their road prowess reaches the point of diminishing

return.

So weighing road splits more heavily in March is not only a myth

but often the polar opposite of reality as home/road splits is

generally less predominant as the season progresses. Neutral does

not equal road and the truth grows deeper as the season does.

Page 5: College basketball betting

BRACKET PICKS

However neutral does not always mean completely neutral:

One of the variables that we muse upon greater in recent years is

how far each team travels for their “neutral” games. This is actually

true for road games in all sports, but overlooked even more for

neutral.

Travel is the often-unnoticed aspect of playing away from home. It’s

not just about dealing with enemy crowds. Though this has proven to

be most affective in college bowl games, it is always a strong

component to conference and NCAA Tournament handicapping.

Page 6: College basketball betting

SPORTS ODDS

And not all goes out the window after the first round, even

if round two or three is a meeting of two squads who each

traveled further than the team they conquered the day(s)

before.

Travel can have a cumulative effect. It certainly does not

top our list of metrics, so one should neither be

disillusioned by first day results at a location nor ignore the

underappreciated consideration.

Page 7: College basketball betting

BETS

New beginnings: So often you hear us quote the famed Yogi-ism of “90

percent of the game is half-mental.” Teams that underachieved especially late

in the year recurrently mentally regroup come conference single elimination

time. It’s time to get those preseason coaches polls and contrast them to the

regular season final standings. If season ending injuries or players being kicked

off the team are not rationale for the major divergence, bet the differentiation.

Bubble favorites: Teams that need an impressive run in the conference

playoffs leave nothing to chance against the inferior teams. We have found no

real value going for or against “bubble” dogs, but actually the more points the

capricious team is laying, the stronger stake they are.

Page 8: College basketball betting

NCB LOCKS

Read the previous day’s boxscores, literally “in-depth:” Every now and

then the obvious is true. When teams are playing two, three or even four

consecutive days, depth and how many minutes their key players have played is

inestimable enlightenment. Nagging injuries are magnified. Most of the year, the

Adrian Barbeau Theory wins: top-heavy squads are the best to bet on. In

conference tournaments, we analyze the depth of each squad.

Yes this even applies to large favorites in first round games. Such squads are

focused on the bigger picture of winning their tournament and are much more

likely to ration their star player minutes if the opportunity arises. Hence fading

big favorites with thin benches may be fool’s gold during most regular season

situations, it gains prominence in the conference tournaments.

Page 9: College basketball betting

BIG DANCE BETTING

Look Ahead Does Not Always Apply to Both Teams: Though

obviously in games leading up to the championship game, even

the winners of a big upset have to play the next day. However,

lower seeded teams don’t have the luxury of looking ahead.

Again, I will use the term, “big picture.” In most circumstances

the top seeds are more likely to look ahead to what may be

progressively better opponents each round. Pay close attention to

the dynamics of higher seeds, many of whom are vulnerable to

overlook the day one foe.

Page 10: College basketball betting

NO. 1 HANDICAPPER

Recent Play is Bigger Than Ever: One of our Golden

Rules is amplified in conference playoffs and that is when it

comes to weighing recent play, “recent is not defined by X-

number of games, but X-number of days.

Around Christmas, where many teams take long breaks,

how a team played in their previous three games is not

nearly as foretelling as in March when they are playing

three games in three days, four in four, etc.

Page 11: College basketball betting

LOCK TIPS

When a team is in a groove, the sooner they get on the court

the better. Squads in a slump can use off time for mental,

strategical, and physical adjustments and rest. This is where

recent (using the above definition) Margin of Cover (or sweat

barometer) really comes into our handicapping more than ever.

As much as we love the KenPom power ratings and still use

them well into March, they don’t take into account the diverse

intangibles that are unique to conference tournament time.

Page 12: College basketball betting

WHO COVERS

Don’t sleep, surf: In the competition to get your

business, sportsbooks are posting lines earlier and

earlier and in fact are at a disadvantage in that they

can’t use the prescriptions discussed here when

making the line. Hence key overlooked information

comes in the morning papers and on the teams’ own

sites. Sharp information is much more prevalent in

the conference celebrations than the regular season

or even the Big Dance.

Page 13: College basketball betting

JOE DUFFY’S PICKS

Top sports handicapper picks are at

OffshoreInsiders.com