Border management and development: Remittance and

migration linkages

Alessandra BraviBen Slay

Senior Economist OfficeUNDP Bratislava Regional Center

http://europeandcis.undp.org/senioreconomist

Odessa19 July 2011

Presentation objectives

• Briefly explore linkages between border management, development, migration, and remittances

• Provide a short overview of key trends, issues in remittances, migration in Europe and Central Asia

• Present services, support UNDP regional senior economist’s office can offer in these areas

Broader context: Border management and development

Border management

(hard security)

Migration and remittances (economic development --

poverty practice, senior economist office)

Anti-corruption (public

administration reform -- democratic governance practice)

Security sector reform (human rights --

democratic governance practice)

Aid for trade (trade facilitation, private

sector/local economic development -- poverty

practice)

Why do people move?

• Mobility vs international migration: when borders matter

• Colonial expansion: need for land, fiscal incentives

• Forced movements: wars, resettlements, natural disasters

• Looking for better opportunities: migrant workers

Top 10 destination countries of Eastern Europe and Central AsiaStock of migrants by destination country 2000, 2005 and 2010( absolute numbers in thousands)

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Serbia

Moldova

Armenia

Tajikistan

Azerbaijan

12,270

5,258

3,079

1,176

1,090

525

408

324

284

264

12,080

5,391

2,974

1,268

1,107

675

440

493

306

255

11,892

5,527

2,871

1,367

1,124

857

474

574

330

348

Stock of Migrants

200020052010

BOMCA

EUBAM

SCIBM

Source: DESA, UN Migration Statistics.

22 million migrants in Eastern Europe + CIS

…for the same countries Stock of migrants by destination country 2000, 2005 and 2010( in % of total population)

Source: DESA, UN Migration Statistics.

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Serbia

Moldova

Armenia

Tajikistan

Azerbaijan

8.7

11.6

19.5

4.2

11.4

5.3

11.4

10.5

4

3

8.4

11.5

19.6

4.8

11.3

6.8

11.7

16.1

4.7

3

8.1

11.3

19.2

5.5

11.2

7.9

11.6

18.7

5.4

4.3

Stock of Migrantsas % of total population

200020052010

Top 10 destination countries of Eastern Europe and Central AsiaStock of migrants by destination country 2000, 2005 and 2010( in % of total population)

Source: DESA, UN Migration Statistics.

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Moldova

Belarus

Armenia

Russian Federation

Montenegro

Macedonia, FYR

Serbia

Uzbekistan

19.5

11.6

11.4

11.4

10.5

8.7

6.8

6.3

5.3

4.2

19.6

11.5

11.7

11.3

16.1

8.4

8.7

5.9

6.8

4.8

19.2

11.3

11.6

11.2

18.7

8.1

6.2

7.9

5.5

Stock of Migrants as % of total population

200020052010

The movement of people is often accompanied by movement of financial flows in the opposite

direction

Global remittance inflows 2000-2010e (in billions usd)

Source: IMF Balance of Payment Report Yearbook 2010.

YOY growth rates (%)

440 bln $

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e0

100

200

300

400

500

18%21%

16%

16%

21%

15% -6% 5%

16%

14%4%

Regional remittance inflows CEE&CIS 2000-2010e (in billions usd)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

1% 6% 16%54%

39%22%

-21% 1%32%

13%

7%

Source: IMF Balance of Payment Report Yearbook 2010.

YOY growth rates (%)

52 bln $

Remittance outflows EU(in billions usd)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

40

80

120Remittance outflows intra EU Total remittance outflows

66% 64% 62% 60% 60%

66%

Source: EUROSTAT, exchange rate annual average OANDA.

59 bln $

99 bln $

Russia: remittance outflows 2002-2010

(in billions usd)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4

4

12

20

28

To CIS countries Total outflow

63% 63% 75% 74% 81% 85% 86% 84% 85%

20 bln $

17 bln $

Source: Russia Central Bank, quarterly data up to QI 2011@ senior economist vulnerability database

Kazakhstan: remittance outflows 2003-2010 (in billions usd)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

1

2

3

4

5

78%87%

55%

56%

42%

-18%-15% 0.4%

YOY growth rates (%) 3 bln $

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan, quarterly data up to QIV 2010@ senior economist vulnerability database

Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2007-2010, Tajikistan

2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6Remittance inflows in billions usd GDP in billions usd

52% 37% 41%

Source: UNDP Tajikistan-IMF, monthly data up to May 2011@ senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011

48%

Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2005-2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6

8 Remittance inflows in billions usd

GDP in billions usd

Source: National Bank of Moldova (Balance of Payment), quarterly data up to QIV 2010@ the senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011

31% 35% 34% 31% 22% 23%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50

100

150

200

0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 3.1% 4.3% 4.1%

Moldova Ukraine

Source: National Bank of Ukraine (Balance of Payment), quarterly data up to QIV 2010@ senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011

Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2006-2010

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2

2

6

10

14

Remittance inflows in millions usdGDP in billions usd

2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60Azerbaijan 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2

2

6

10

14

7% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Armenia Georgia

19% 19% 19% 18% 17%

4% 4% 3% 3% 3%

Source: IFAD Remittance Gateway for Armenia and Georgia, IMF BoP statistics for Azerbaijan.GDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011

Remittance inflows as a share of GDP, 2005-2010, Kyrgyzstan

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6Remittance inflows in billions usd GDP in billions usd

17%18%

22% 21%27%

Source: National Bank of Kyrgyzstan (Balance of Payment), monthly data up to May 2011@ senior economist vulnerability databaseGDP data from IMF-WEO report April 2011

12%

National, sub-national data on changes in remittances into—and migration from—

Kyrgyzstan in 2010

Remittances -- national

Numbers of migrants --

national

Numbers of migrants --

Jalalabad oblast

Numbers of migrants -- Osh

oblast

Numbers of migrants -- Osh

city

29%63%

101% 110%

316%

Sources: State Statistical Committee, National Bank; UNDP calculations.

Areas of ethnic conflict in May-June 2010

What can we offer?

UNDP Senior Economist office:• Support country office on migration-

remittance related projects• Data • Analysis and Fast Facts• Experts on the move• D&T publicationwww.developmentandtransition.net

• Regional research bulletin, Europe and Central Asia

• Provides UN, independent views on development, transition, policy issues

• Disseminates lessons of successful UN projects

• Distributed to:– All UNDP staff in Europe,

Central Asia region– 4000 external subscribers

• This issue is available athttp://www.developmentandtransition.net/Arkhiv.71+M54a708de802.0.html

• Next issue (July 2011): Integrated local development

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