Energy and agriculture:Energy and agriculture:where to from here?where to from here?

Europe and Australia by night – same scale, same brightness

World population is World population is increasing rapidly now 6.5 increasing rapidly now 6.5

billion billion may rise to 10 billionmay rise to 10 billion

• Food production has to keep pace with Food production has to keep pace with population population QuantityQuantity Quality, largely a balanced protein ,mineral Quality, largely a balanced protein ,mineral

and and energy intakeenergy intake

Protein availability critical for health and well being of people. Requirements for essential amino acids from plant and animal protein

Increasing demand for meat and milk [approx 3% /Year in Asia

?

All Populations Are Controlled by All Populations Are Controlled by Combination of Factors [The 4Ps]Combination of Factors [The 4Ps]..

PovertyPoverty[Availability and share of [Availability and share of resources] resources]

PollutionPollution [Contamination of the [Contamination of the environment ] environment ]

PredationPredation [Taking the resources of others [Taking the resources of others to survive] to survive]

PestilencePestilence [Overcrowding and insults to [Overcrowding and insults to the environment allows spread of diseasethe environment allows spread of disease

e.g. AIDS]e.g. AIDS]IN HUMAN POPULATIONS THE OVERALL FACTOR IS IN HUMAN POPULATIONS THE OVERALL FACTOR IS

POLITICS.POLITICS.

Frisch & Leng 2002

Human ingenuity has allowed the Human ingenuity has allowed the planet to grow to a population of planet to grow to a population of

6.5 billion possibly rising to 9 6.5 billion possibly rising to 9 billion by:billion by:

Increasing the resource base in terms of energy, water, land and food-Poverty

Controlling local pollution which may have not yet critically polluted the atmosphere-Pollution

Minimising predation of resources [though there is still unbalanced uses of resources]-Predation

Containing and overcoming pestilence, although the present disease pandemics appear to be out of control [HIV infections and SARS]-Pestilence

Climate Change is For Real !

From 1979 to 2003 therehas been significant depletion of the Arctic icecap as shown by satellitephotography

National Geographic Sept. 2004

Just one of the species to become extinct

PEAK OIL--Barely recognised or stuck in “ the too hard basket” by politicians, scientists and world leaders

The potential of global oil production to peak is already causing shock waves through the world’s\economy and reshaping geopolitics.

This event will precipitate a cascade of \environmental, economic, political and cultural change for which we are totally unprepared

It has the potential to eclipse global warming as the driving force for sustainable development

                                     

  

The Exploitation of Oil Has A Typical Bell Shaped Curve of Depletion. The World Depletion

Curve is Simply The Sum Of All Fields.

North Sea Oil has followed the pattern of

exploitation precisely as predicted by Hubbert [1956]

Mexico’s largest oil field

Tasmanian ScallopsSturgeon and Caviar

Production ForecastProduction Forecast

0

10

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30

40

50

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Gbo

e

Conventional Oil Heavy Deepwater Polar NGL Gas Non-Con Gas

Data from 1-6-14

Oil has largely run out for many Oil has largely run out for many countries and there is very little countries and there is very little

to be discoveredto be discovered

-200

-100

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Oil

avail

ab

ilit

y [

Gb

]

ME

Gu

lf

Eu

ras

ia

NA

me

ric

a

La

tin

Am

eri

ca

Afr

ica

WE

uro

pe

As

ia

ME

Oth

ers

Oil Used Reserves Yet to be found

The United States with 2% of World Oil The United States with 2% of World Oil Reserves Uses 25% of World OilReserves Uses 25% of World Oil

01020304050607080

Oil statistics [% ]

USA OPEC Rest of theWorld

Reserves Production Consumption

A major problem is getting your A major problem is getting your mind around the figures.mind around the figures. This huge This huge find [Australian January 2005] 170 million find [Australian January 2005] 170 million barrel represents 2 days of world suppliesbarrel represents 2 days of world supplies

Summary of World Oil Supplies Summary of World Oil Supplies 11

Oil use in the world has increased to around 80 million barrels/day or 1 billion barrels are used every 12 days

All the major oil fields were discovered long ago and many have exceeded Peak Production

The discovery of oil has dwindled to small finds. Global oil production capacity is contracting by over 1 million barrels each day every year.

Summary of World Oil Supplies Summary of World Oil Supplies 22

Result: Oil will be a scarce and Result: Oil will be a scarce and expensive resource in years to expensive resource in years to comecome

Demand for oil ,particularly by China, India, Pakistan and some Latin American countries is increasing at unprecedented rates. Global demand isexpected to increase by 1 million barrels every day each year

The Greatest Disappearing Act in the WorldOil

There is a lot more to a countries oil reservesthan meets the eye

Few [None?] countries or companies providea transparent picture of their reserves

Lack of transparency of oil Lack of transparency of oil reserves, may hide an imminent reserves, may hide an imminent

oil scarcityoil scarcity The Middle East has 75% of the world’s The Middle East has 75% of the world’s

remaining oil.remaining oil. Ghawar [Saudi Arabia] had 100 billion barrels Ghawar [Saudi Arabia] had 100 billion barrels

of reserves [only 1 field of this size has been of reserves [only 1 field of this size has been discovered]discovered]

Ghawar has been mined, from its beginning, to Ghawar has been mined, from its beginning, to maintain high flow rates by pumping in sea maintain high flow rates by pumping in sea water to lift the oilwater to lift the oil

Ghawar is now pumping a mix of 55 % water Ghawar is now pumping a mix of 55 % water and 45 % oiland 45 % oil

Experience shows that when the water cut gets Experience shows that when the water cut gets to 70-80% water, the field collapses much more to 70-80% water, the field collapses much more rapidly then indicated by the Hubbert modelrapidly then indicated by the Hubbert model

[[M C Ruppert[2004] http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/areticle_15732.shtmlM C Ruppert[2004] http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/areticle_15732.shtml

THE PROBLEM: PEAKING OF WORLD THE PROBLEM: PEAKING OF WORLD CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTIONCONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION

Projection Source

2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S.

2007-2009 Simmons, M.R.

After 2007 Skrebowski, C.

2008 Campbell / ASPO

Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S.

Before 2010 Goodstein, D.

After 2010 World Energy Council

2010-2020 Laherrere, J.

2016 EIA nominal case

After 2020 CERA

2025 or later Shell----------------------------------------------------------------No visible peak Lynch, M.C.

2000

2010

2020

2030

SAIC / MISI

Who do you believe?

Price Shocks - the first Price Shocks - the first signssigns

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60

70

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Bre

nt

Cru

de

US

$

Prices rise then crash with recessions

Shocks as production capacity limits breached

Five times whatit costs to produceCurrent Brent crude price : US$109.4

Who gets hurt if oil Who gets hurt if oil becomes scarce and prices becomes scarce and prices

rise rise

The oil producers who may be invaded for oil The oil producers who may be invaded for oil security security [The oil grab][The oil grab]

Everyone[ particularly the poor]

USA uses 30% of the world’s oil and imports 25% of that from Saudi Arabia will be the worst hit

The underdeveloped and developing countries that will be denied development

But look at this!

Shale oil has filled the gap suggesting that by the end of the decade Brent prices are likely to hover within a range of $80-90/bbl.

The end of oil means more expensive goods

In the USA approximately 1400 liters In the USA approximately 1400 liters of oil equivalents are expended to of oil equivalents are expended to

feed each citizen; energy consumption feed each citizen; energy consumption

is broken downis broken down 31% manufacturing inorganic fertilizers31% manufacturing inorganic fertilizers 19% operation of field machinery19% operation of field machinery 16% transportation 16% transportation 13% for irrigation13% for irrigation 8% raising livestock [not feed lot feed]8% raising livestock [not feed lot feed] 5% crop drying5% crop drying 5% pesticide production5% pesticide production 8% other inputs8% other inputs

Does not include energy costs of packaging, refrigeration,transport to outletsand energy for cooking

  Most significant effects of Most significant effects of scarce and expensive oil.scarce and expensive oil.

..

Gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for transport and for industrial machinery. Global trade will greatly decline.

Decline in agricultural production--depends heavily on fertilizers and chemicals made from oil

Food shortages, increased by competition for food crops as feedstock for bio-fuels such as vegetable oil and alcohol

Shortages of 500,000 other goods made from oil.

Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government activity. Very serious unemployment

Where are the likely most Where are the likely most sensitive areassensitive areas

Environment and global warming[greater Environment and global warming[greater use of coal]use of coal]

All forms of transportAll forms of transport Car makers and subsidiariesCar makers and subsidiaries TourismTourism Food/goods transportFood/goods transport Natural resource movement [coal,ores etc] Natural resource movement [coal,ores etc] Wars on terror [USA spends approx $20/barrel for Wars on terror [USA spends approx $20/barrel for

protection of its supply]protection of its supply] All food producing systemsAll food producing systems Social structures Suburbs v City v Self Social structures Suburbs v City v Self

Sustaining communitiesSustaining communities

Afrique on ligne, 22 December 2009"A team of Chinese experts arrived here on Monday to start exploration for oil and gas, official sources told PANA here.

This follows an US$ 8 billion investment agreement the two countries signed last month covering many sectors of the Zimbabwean economy, including energy.

Officials said the team would soon start exploration for oil and gas in the northern part of the country, where early surveys had indicated some reserves.

In the 1980s, US oil giant Mobil explored for oil in the area, and found reserve s which it said were not commercially viable.

The most serious area may be The most serious area may be a downturn in agriculture and a downturn in agriculture and

food production 1food production 1 In the developed countries. Reduced industrial scale In the developed countries. Reduced industrial scale

farming with single crop such as corn and soybean. farming with single crop such as corn and soybean.

Return to permaculture incorporating microbial Return to permaculture incorporating microbial activities for fertilisers and recycling of nutrients activities for fertilisers and recycling of nutrients

[requiring more people in agriculture][requiring more people in agriculture]

Social restructuring of rural, city and suburban Social restructuring of rural, city and suburban communitiescommunities

Production of home grown fuels and competition for Production of home grown fuels and competition for food, feed and feedstock for local consumption and food, feed and feedstock for local consumption and exportexport

The need for fuel for cooking could result in deforestation and erosion in countries such as Nigeria

Developing countries: down turn in staples greater need for small integrated systems dependent on recycling of nutrients

What happens when another Rwanda or Dufur[2.4 million refugees presently without support] erupts in a future world with few food reserves?

Millions of the World’s Millions of the World’s Children are Undernourished Children are Undernourished

9 28 39 53

204

156142

221

Developed Developing Near East/ N AfricaLatinAmerica/ Caribbean SubSaharan Africa Asia/ PacificChina India

Human population Human population explosion coincided with explosion coincided with the increasing availability the increasing availability of “Cheap Oil”of “Cheap Oil”

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0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Anno Domini

Bill

ion

s o

f P

eop

le

First Oil Well ?

World Cereal Stocks [Estimated World Cereal Stocks [Estimated total carryover of cereals]total carryover of cereals]

Use of energy for grain production"modern" vs "traditional" systems

Source: Pretty 1995

USA (rice)USA (maize)

UK (wheat)Philippines (rice)

China (rice)Latin A (rice)

Bangladesh (rice)0

2

4

6

8

10

12Energy per unit grain, MJ/kg

"Modern"

"Traditional"

Trends in the world use of Trends in the world use of cereal grain as feed for cereal grain as feed for

livestocklivestock

592 636 660

925

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Feed grain requirements[Million MT]

1983 1993 1997 2020

Developed world Developing world Total

Delgado et al 2002

World ethanol production by World ethanol production by country. USA is likely to become the country. USA is likely to become the world’s largest producer using maize world’s largest producer using maize

as the feedstockas the feedstock

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5

1015

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25

3035

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45

Alc

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Pro

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[bln

litr

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EUIndiaThailandChinaCanandaUSABrazil

Berg C[2003]World biofuel production Int. Sugar J, 1 [1] 5-15

Ethanol Inducing Policies are Ethanol Inducing Policies are being applied widely in the being applied widely in the

worldworld

How the US Farm policy is seen by How the US Farm policy is seen by Peter Nicholson Australian July 31Peter Nicholson Australian July 31st st

20032003

Australia’s available energy supply Australia’s available energy supply in years at current production in years at current production

levels.levels.Australia is in a particularly dire situation considering Australia is in a particularly dire situation considering the alarming

decline in Australia's self-sufficiency in crude oil, which forecasters say means we will have to import most of our crude oil and petroleum products from overseas by 2008.

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Black coal Natural gas Uranium oil

Yea

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f su

pp

ly

Commercial demonstrated resources

Ruminants have the capacity to use biomass not used by monogastric animals

The future price of grain will The future price of grain will favour the ruminant?favour the ruminant?

Ruminant production is at a low efficiency Ruminant production is at a low efficiency in most countries with tremendous scope in most countries with tremendous scope to improveto improve

The supply of supplements needed to use The supply of supplements needed to use the biomass will arise from by-products of the biomass will arise from by-products of the feed and fuel industriesthe feed and fuel industries

Ruminants are multi-purpose for power, Ruminants are multi-purpose for power, food products food products

Transport is 95% dependent on inexpensive oil: However the infrastructure can still be helpful!!!

70% of oil demand is for transport in USA80% in Australia

The price of steak from grain fed The price of steak from grain fed ruminants must be measured in terms ruminants must be measured in terms

of oil costs involved in growing the of oil costs involved in growing the feed, managing and marketing the feed, managing and marketing the

meatmeat

I kg of beef requires approximately

5.7 litres of oil. Or to produce this

little beauty at 600kg live weight

1075 litres of oil

National Geographic June 2004

Permaculture and clean Permaculture and clean energyenergy

Composting for fertilizer Mandela urban garden

Worm farm Wind farm

Livestock

Biodigestor

Pond

Crops, trees, shrubs

ManureEffluent

IrrigationFeed

Family

BiogasExcreta

The ecological farm

The future resides in capturing solar energy and harnessing it to fuel our

needs for energy

Solar energy trapped on 1% of the world’s surface is enough

Swedish pod-car system - all solar driven

Hydrogen economy—A false Hydrogen economy—A false economyeconomy

To replace UK’s oil burning vehicles with greener hydrogen powered carswould require erection of 100,000 wind turbines or 100 new nuclear power stations

Source; A an J Oswald, Warrick University www.iom3.org/materialsworld

The Sea Current OptionThe Sea Current Option A huge source of renewable and sustainable energy A huge source of renewable and sustainable energy

is in the kinetic energy of sea currents.is in the kinetic energy of sea currents. There are a number of propeller systems, There are a number of propeller systems,

oscillating vane and aerofoil systemsoscillating vane and aerofoil systems These solutions are trying to adapt wind These solutions are trying to adapt wind

technology directly to a dense slow moving technology directly to a dense slow moving fluid. fluid.

Deflecting Vane Technology is by far the most Deflecting Vane Technology is by far the most efficient. It increases energy density efficient. It increases energy density upstream from the turbine by a factor of 3upstream from the turbine by a factor of 3

callaghan@eircom.netcallaghan@eircom.net

Nuclear power the bridging Nuclear power the bridging fuel?fuel?

As the price of oil sky rockets As the price of oil sky rockets governments abandon their nuclear –governments abandon their nuclear –

free resolutionsfree resolutions

World Uranium ResourcesWorld Uranium Resources

Kazakhstan15%

Canada14%

Rest Australia10%

WMC Australia35%

South Africa6%

Nambia4%

Utbekistan3%

Russia2%

Rest of World11%

Source WMC and Nuclear Energy Agency R Gottliebsen Australian 29-30 Jan 2005

• Gas stuck to coal

• Pump water out to reduce water pressure and release gas

If impermeable pump in water and sand toFracture and increase gas flow from coal

Environmental impact??

Coal seam gas---- the answer????

Coal seam gas wells Queensland

World Energy Generation By World Energy Generation By FuelFuel

Oil10%

Coal39%

Gas15%

Nuclear16%

Hydro19%

Other1%

Source WMC and Nuclear Energy Agency R Gottliebsen Australian 29-30 Jan 2005

The way ahead is to buy The way ahead is to buy time by reducing world time by reducing world

consumption of fuel.consumption of fuel. Massive education effortMassive education effort Allow world prices to rise modestlyAllow world prices to rise modestly Develop sustainable farming systems maximising the use of Develop sustainable farming systems maximising the use of

microbes and recycling of nutrientsmicrobes and recycling of nutrients Take a cut in standard of livingTake a cut in standard of living

More fuel efficiency less cars/capita-more public transport More fuel efficiency less cars/capita-more public transport Massively invest in alternative, renewable energy resources Massively invest in alternative, renewable energy resources

nownow

Ironically, there’s also a saying fromoil-rich Saudi Arabia that goes:"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son willride a camel."

The World Needs To Rapidly Develop New Energy Sources

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