Understanding the role of genetic diversity to manage climate risksCarlo Fadda, Bioversity International7 April 2014, Intercontinentaladdis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

An introduction to climate change

IPCC, 2001

Changes in TemperatureGlobal Warming

IPCC, 2001

Changes in RainfallGlobal Warming Climate Change

IPCC, 2007

www.globalwarmingart.com

Future: Different Emission Scenariosand Climate Models

6

The impact of climate change

7

The impact of climate change (Ethiopia)

Climate model projections under the A2 and B1 scenarios over Ethiopia show warming in all four seasons across the country, which may cause a higher frequency of heat waves as well as higher rates of evaporation

8

Adaptation to climate change

Food security issues

• More than 200 million people in Africa, or 23% of the people, suffers from hunger, and despite declines experienced in the past six years

• About 40% of children under the age of five in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are underdeveloped due to malnutrition (IIED data)

10

Food production needs to increase by 70% to 100%.

11

Ejere2221 masl

K’ok’a1604 masl

Ch’efe Donsa2421 masl

K’ok’a current

Ejere current

Ch’efe Donsa current

Increasing temperature

K’ok’a 2020K’ok’a 2050

Ch’efe Donsa 2020

Ch’efe Donsa 2050Ejere 2020

Ejere 2050

Climate analogues between evaluation sites

-Don’t overestimate importance of climate analogues

-Introduced material from very different climates can perform unexpectedly well (examples of potato, pea, and barley varieties from warmer to cold climate )

-Importance of photoperiod (accessions collected in the same latitudinal zone have most potential)

-Importance of quarantine system for newly introduced material (prevent exchange of pest and diseases)

Observations of Vavilov (1935)

13

The need for agricultural biodiversityThe heavy reliance on a narrow diversity of crops puts future food and nutrition security at risk.

Source: ‘Dimensions of Need: An atlas of food and agriculture’. FAO, 1995.

• Genetic diversity refers to the total number of genetic characteristics in the genetic makeup of a species.

• Foundation of all improvements

• Used by generations of farmers

• Source of traits for:• Increased productivity• Resistance to biotic and

abiotic stresses

Genetic diversity

15Copyright © 2012 Bioversity International

On-farmtrial

Locally adaptedseed systems

On-stationtrial

Gene bankaccessions

The Seeds for Needs initiative

Crowdsourcing

m o l e c u l a r a n a l y s i sp h e n o t y p i n g

PARTICIPATORY VARIETY SELECTION AND BREEDING

GIS tools

Atlas

A global scope

(1) Geneticdiversity

(2) Selection &cultivation

(3) Harvest

(4) Value addition

(5) Marketing

(6) Final use

OutcomesEmpowerment of communities: more

resilient to eco-socio-economic changes, more resilient food systems

OutcomePreservation of options for resilient systems

OutcomeSelf-reliance of value chain actors on broader set of options, making them more resilient to market changes.

From farm to fork: biodiversity contribution along the value chain

IMPACTImproved nutrition,

incomes and other

livelihood benefits

The process

2. Each farmer gets a different combination of varieties

1. A broad set of varieties is evaluated

4. Farmers test and report back by mobile phone

2. Each farmer gets a different combination of varieties

3. Environmental data (GPS, sensors) to assess adaptation

1. A broad set of varieties is evaluated

6. Data are used to detect demand for new varieties and traits

5. Farmers receive tailored variety recommendations and can order seeds

The process

Temperature

TemperatureHumidity

Farmers’ preferences revealed through data analysis

Strengthening community seed systems

Institutional genebanks

(National, private, experimental stations, universities…)

Community seedbanks

CGIAR genebanks

International Genebanks

Regional genebanks

Private Sector

INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES AND LEGAL INSTRUMENTS International Treaty on

Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture

Seed multipliers and suppliers

NATIONAL PROGRAMMES

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTRES

SMALL VULNERABLE FARMERS

Information

Germplasm

Diverse sets of planting materials enabling farmers to adapt to change

• Is a rapid approach to identify crop varieties

adapted to changing climates and markets

• Uses existing diversity

• Can be customized to local and marginal conditions around the world

• Directly responds to farmers’ needs

Seeds for Needs

www.bioversityinternational.org

Thank you