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Tropical forests in a changing world:Investigating global change impacts
in Amazonia and Puerto Rico
Christine S. O’Connell
University of California, BerkeleyEnvironmental Science, Policy, & Management (ESPM) Seminar
Feb 25, 2016
Tropical forests and global change
How is forest biogeochemistry affected by land use and climate change in two tropical sites?
- Agriculture, energy and biogeochemistry in Amazonia
- Drought, oxygen and biogeochemistry in Puerto Rico
Foley et al. (2011)
Agriculture occupies ~38% of Earth’s terrestrial surface
Agricultural expansion and trade forces subsequently drive deforestation
Hansen et al. (2013) (fig), Lenzen et al. (2012), Lambin et al. (2003), DeFries et al. (2010)
Both
IPCC AR5 (2014)
Remaining forests will likely experience changes to precipitation timing and amount
Land and climate are changing with poorly
known consequences for tropical forest
biogeochemistry
Tropical forests and global change
Agriculture, energy and biogeochemistry in Amazonia
- Extensification- Intensification
Saatchi et al. (2011), Brienen et al. (2012)
Amazonia is the globe’s largest tract of tropical forest, contains 100 Gt of carbon in biomass, and rapidly cycles water
Nepstad et al. (2014)
Deforestation (~20%) has been falling since 2004, as intensification on agricultural lands rises.
QHow does agricultural extensification impact carbon, energy and habitat? Can we balance these ecosystem services across space?
We combined data from remote sensing, model output, andgeostatistical datasets to assess spatial variation in services
We combined data from remote sensing, model output, andgeostatistical datasets to assess spatial variation in services
• Changes in carbon (C) stocks• Energy balance regulation
• Habitat quality
We combined data from remote sensing, model output, andgeostatistical datasets to assess spatial variation in services
• Changes in carbon (C) stocks• Energy balance regulation
• Habitat qualityWe hypothesized that comparing these impacts to agricultural gains from expansion would lead to different conservation implications for each environmental goal.
C stock reductions relate to precipitation, landscape degradation, and soils
Net aboveground biomass and mineral soil C lost after land
use change
Local atmospheric drying after land use change is greater in the strongly seasonal east
Reduction in exported moisture per day (via
evapotranspiration)
…and local warming is higher in the same area
Increase in local atmospheric
temperature (annual average)
Plants, birds and mammals all have the highest relative species diversity in the Andes Amazon
Number of species ranges represented in
each grid cell
Tradeoffs consider both gains and losses
Calories gained / change in ecosystem property
Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
Ecosystem services: potential cobenefits
The location of future agricultural expansion will largely dictate the impacts of Amazonian land use on ecosystem services
Doubling Amazonia's agricultural lands at least harm to the environment
We ran an algorithm that expands agriculture at the least combined “harm,” while changing the priority between C, energy balance and habitat
Carbon storage
priority levelCarbon storage
priority levelCarbon storagepriority level
TgC
Emitt
ed
Spec
ies
Rang
es A
ffec
ted
Regi
onal
Clim
ate
Inde
x
Doubling Amazonia's agricultural lands at least harm to the environment
We ran an algorithm that expands agriculture at the least combined “harm,” while changing the priority between C, energy balance and habitat
Carbon storagepriority level
Carbon storage priority levelCarbon storage
priority level
TgC
Emitt
ed
Spec
ies
Rang
es A
ffec
ted
Regi
onal
Clim
ate
Inde
x
Doubling Amazonia's agricultural lands at least harm to the environment
Carbon storagepriority level
Carbon storagepriority level
Carbon storagepriority level
TgC
Emitt
ed
Spec
ies
Rang
es A
ffec
ted
Regi
onal
Clim
ate
Inde
x
We ran an algorithm that expands agriculture at the least combined “harm,” while changing the priority between C, energy balance and habitat
Where matters:balancing ecosystem services in the tropics may require tradeoffs
between environmental goals
Tropical forests and global change
Agriculture, energy and biogeochemistry in Amazonia
- Extensification- Intensification
Tanguro Ranch
Tanguro Ranch: Land use change impacts case study
Tanguro Ranch: Land use change impacts case study
Tanguro Ranch: Land use change impacts case study
Tanguro Ranch: Land use change impacts case study
Tanguro Ranch: Land use change impacts case study
Tanguro Ranch: Land use change impacts case study
Tanguro Ranch: Land use change impacts case study
Tanguro Ranch has three land uses:
transitional Amazon forest (F), soybean cultivation (S), and
soybean/maize (double cropped)
cultivation (M).
MAT: 27°C
MAP: 1800 mm/y
Management: N- (x2, M only) and P-fertilizer (x2), lime, pesticide, herbicide
Soils: ~40% clay; pH 4.5 (F), 5.5-6 (S, M)
QAmazon intensificationtrace gas patterns: How does cropland management affect CO2, N2O and CH4 in Southeastern Amazonia?
Do the impacts of land use propagate down the soil profile in a way that may influence trace gas emissions?
10m soil pit!
15 cm
40 cm
75 cm
150 cm
250 cm
350 cm
450 cm
Gas Sampling Data
ThermocoupleandTime-Domain Reflectometry
Three pits in transitional Amazon forest (For), three in
agriculture (Ag).
Agricultural soils are wetter, with a pronounced dip at crop rooting depth; high forest moisture variability
Land use effect, p < 0.0001; depth effect, p < 0.0001; interaction, p < 0.001
Agricultural soils are also hotter, and less variable than forest temperatures –promoting trace gas production
Land use effect, p < 0.0001; depth effect, p < 0.0001; interaction NS
How do these abiotic factors interact with N fertilizer management to influence trace gas
emissions in cropland and forest?
Field measurement of N pools and GHG fluxes
+ 30 kgN/yr as nitrate+ 45 kgN/yr as urea
Forest (F) Soybean (S) Soybean/Maize (M)
Dry season N2O emissions are uniformly near zero (~0-0.5 ngN/cm2/h). Surprisingly, wet season emissions
remain low as well, between 1-4 ngN/cm2/h. Land uses did not significantly differ.
S MF
While post-fertilization N2O peaks can be substantial, in several cases they barely deviated from the baseline.
S MF
NO3- concentrations
are significantly higher in N-fertilized maize fields than in forests (p < 0.01).
However, there is not a significant
correlation between N2O emissions and
soil inorganic N availability.
Forest (F) Soybean (S) Soybean/Maize (M)
CO2 fluxes are highest in soybean/maize sites (p < 0.01). Comparison of row-interrow chambers indicated
that cropland row chambers had fluxes ~90% higher than inter-row chambers.
S MF
Forest (F) Soybean (S) Soybean/Maize (M)
CH4 emissions in forests had strong heterogeneity within site. Forest soil uptake of CH4 was significantly
larger than in agricultural soils (p < 0.001).
S MF
What are the implications of these differences for global climate?
We extrapolated to an annual flux on each land use by calculating the average dry season flux, wet season flux, and “post-fertilization” flux (<15 days after N fertilization)
Take-away: N2O sees re-ranking between forest/ag annual emissions with management
Amazonian intensification may have limited greenhouse
gas consequences, with profound implications for tropical agriculture
Tropical forests and global change
Agriculture, energy and biogeochemistry in Amazonia
Drought, oxygen and biogeochemistry in Puerto Rico
Luquillo Experimental Forest: Historic drought
QHow does severe drought impact belowground biogeochemistry and GHG emissions?
Field array (O2 and TDR sensors, automated GHG chambers) allowed high temporal resolution data before, during and after
Soil moisture and O2 exhibited a threshold response to drought with lengthy persistence; valley less sensitive to O2 changes
Soil moisture and O2 exhibited a threshold response to drought with lengthy persistence; valley less sensitive to O2 changes
Greenhouse gas emissions show patterns across topographic space: particularly CO2 on slopes.
Iron(II) concentrations decreased post-drought, particularly in the valleys, while Iron(III) concentrations increased, associated with Iron(II) oxidation to Iron(III) after soil oxygen availability rose.
Inorganic phosphorus concentrations declined dramatically during the drought, possibly due to Fe-P bonding. Organic P increased slightly, possibility due to decreased decomposition rates.
Drought may impact tropical forest carbon storage both directly via moisture changes,
and indirectly via nutrient availability
Summary: Land use change
Deforesting tropical land likely has much larger
biogeochemical ramifications than intensification on
tropical agricultural lands
Summary: Climate change
Climate change impacts on tropical forest
functioning will likely feature complex feedbacks
between nutrient cycles
Improving our knowledge about how global change impacts tropical forests will be critical to managing these key
ecosystems in a changing world
Thanks very much
Photo creditsFlickr CC Users
CIFORBilltacular
Jacsonquerubinflinner!
Carine06LeoFFreitas
terryduggalliceIcelight
MODIS images via NASA
Obrigada toThe Silver Lab and ESPM for postdoctoral support
My wonderful mentors at Minnesota: Sarah Hobbie, Steve Polasky, Jennifer Powers, Rod Venterea, and Jon Foley
Colleagues at collaborating institutions: Mike Coe, Eric Davidson, Chris Neill, Marcia Macedo, Paul Lefebvre, Chelsea Nagy, Carlos Cerri, and Paulo Brando
The field team at Tanguro: Santarem, Bati, Darlisson, Ebis, Sandro and Dona Lucia
Supporting agencies below:
Christine S. O’Connell, [email protected], UC-B ESPM
IPCC AR5 (2014)
Remaining forests will likely experience changes to precipitation timing and amount
Carbon storage priority changes
Habitat quality priority changes
Regional climate priority changes
Tg C Effects Habitat Effects Reg. Clim. Effects
Carbon storage priority changes
Habitat quality priority changes
Regional climate priority changes
Tg C Effects Habitat Effects Reg. Clim. Effects
Carbon storage priority changes
Habitat quality priority changes
Regional climate priority changes
Tg C Effects Habitat Effects Reg. Clim. Effects