Trends of GHG emissions resulting from food systems (crops, livestock, land-based aquaculture, processed food)

Louis VerchotIPCC-FAO EXPERT MEETING ON CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND USE, AND FOOD SECURITY

23-25 January 2017, FAO Headquarters, Rome

Historical cumulative emissions by sourceLand-use change represents about 26% of cumulative emissions over 1870–2015,

coal 35%, oil 26%, gas 10%, and others 3%

Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaringSource: Global Carbon Project

Agriculture is both a source and sink of greenhouse gases (GHGs)

Emissions:• Energy (including fertilizer production) 0.4 – 0.6 Gt CO2

• Non-CO2 GHG 5.2 – 6.3 Gt CO2e• Deforestation (gross) 8.6 – 10.3 Gt CO2

Sinks• Crop and livestock management• Agroforestry

Four different datasets tell a similar relative story about major

agricultural emissions

Source: AR5

Data: USEPA 2006 data projected through 2030

Emissions are highest in developing countries and will grow significantly by 2030

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N2O Agricultural soils N2O Manure managementCH4 Enteric fermentation CH4 Manure management CH4 Other agricultural CH4 Rice cultivation

Contribution of the leading emission sources in percent of total emissions

per pixel 2000–2005.

Source: Roman-Cuesta et al. (2016)

High rates of Fertilizer N application are found in Mid-west US, W. Europe,

and E and S Asia

Source: Potter et al. (2010)

A new twist to our story: Soils are losing carbon across the northern part of the

globe

Source: Crowther et al., (2016)

Map of predicted changes in soil C stocks due to a 1oC rise in temperature by 2050 under a ‘no acclimatization’ scenario.

Depending on the amount of time for the full effect of warming to be felt, the losses could be

considerable

Source: Crowther et al., (2016)

Meat consumption will drive increased GHG emissions

Economic trends

• Global livestock population – 17 billion animals • Meat consumption has almost tripled in the last four decades and

has increased by over 30% in the last ten years. • Dairy consumption is up by over 70 percent in the last four decades. • Greatest consumption increases are seen in East and Southeast Asia

(>3% y-1 through 2020)

Meat consumption will drive increased GHG emissions

Economic trends

• Livestock production concentrates in areas with cheap input supplies and good market outlets (e.g. in the vicinity of large cities). • More specialized and intensive industrial production systems.• Production is shifting from ruminants to monogastrics, that have a

better feed conversion ratio. • Vertical integration along the land–livestock–food chain creates

economies of scope.

Globally, increases in production monogastrics greatly exceeds that of

ruminants

Source: Chemnitz et al. (2014)

Monogastrics produce much less GHG than ruminants

Source : Carlsson Kanyama and González (2009) Calculation based on IPCC Tier 1 factors

119 INDC submissions pledge agricultural GHG reductions

Some of the highest emissions per haOrganic soils

• 25 million ha have been drained for agriculture (~7% of the area). • 60 percent is in boreal and cool temperate regions; • 5 percent is in warm temperate regions; and • 34% is in the tropics, mostly in Southeast Asia.

• Emissions from these are almost one billion tonnes CO2eq annually (~85% CO2; ~15% N2O). • Fire and fertilization of these soils create more emissions.

Tropical peatlands are much more extensive than previously thought

1.7 M km2 tropical peatlands

Source: Gumbricht et al. (in press)

A growing emissions sourceAquaculture

• Production of fish and shellfish in aquaculture > 55 Mt (~half global fish consumption).

• This production has high N2Oemissions, which are predicted to increase to about 6% of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2030.

Shrimp culture = 38% of global mangrove loss; Other aquaculture = 14%.

Donato et al. Nature Geoscience (2011)

LCA of the food system of the UK: food processing and packaging make up about

20% of GHG emissions

Source: Garnett et al (2011)

Thank You