Coffee and ClimateTrouble brewing
Jeffrey Sachs, James RisingTim Foreman, John Simmons, Manuel Brahm
Global Coffee Forum, October 1, 2015
A global perspective
Arabica producersRobusta producers
Mixed producersExports from consumers
The network of global coffee trade
Three scales of impacts
Suita
bilit
y
Prod
uctio
nVa
riabi
lity
Long-term trendDecadal variabilityInterannual variability
Climate change: Temperature
The coffee belt is warming: +2.1° C (1.7° – 2.5°)
Can coffee move 600 km from the poles, or 380 m up? Extremes will get become extreme
Climate change: Precipitation
Small, uncertain increase in rainfall: +1.7% (-0.1 – 3.2%)
Extremes will get more extreme
Driest month losing 2 – 12% of precipitation
Suitability inputsTemperatures Precipitations
Soil Properties Elevation
Urban Regions Protected Areas
Current suitability Arabica suitability
Robusta suitability
Urban Protected Suitable (~potential yield)
Future Arabica Suitability
Changes in suitability
Statistical confidence
Final suitability
Changes in Arabica suitability
Changes in Robusta suitability
El Niño is coming
Precipitation changes during the 1997/98 event (American Meteorological Society, 1998).
Impact on prices Historical price rise of 30% after an El Niño
Projection for 2015-16
Empirical Model: Brazil
Empirical Model: Global
Changes in yields: Brazil +2°
Changes in 2050 Different model for each country, based on
historical data
Loss temperatures vs. current averages
The future of coffee
Variability in prices
Prices paid to farmers
Explaining farmer prices
Explained by international prices Explained by local production
Thank you! And thanks to Illy Coffee and Lavazza.
Extra slides: Climate
Changes in the tropics
Temperature variability
Precipitation variability
Extra slides: Tools
(Grey) Literature on Coffee Producing Regions
A new coffee database
Arabica harvest area
Robusta harvest area
Extra slides: Suitability
Suitability schematic
Extra slides: Variability
Historical El Niños
Extra slides: Production
Brazil production density
Effect in elevation
Area by elevationRobusta
Arabica
Changes with elevation
GDD model by country
Yields are changing Trends in yields, as changes per year
Many reasons for this
Extra slides: Market
Real 2000 USD Prices
Producer country exports
Consumer country exports
Explaining demand
Explained by previous yearExplained by retail prices
Producer Costs and Inferred Markups
To farmers Inferred markup
Consumer prices and inferred markups
To farmers Inferred distribution Remaining markup