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TENDING OLD ROOTS WHILE SOWING NEW SEEDS IN A CHANGING CLIMATEJOHN G. VAN HOESEN GREEN MOUNTAIN COLLEGE
• OUR CO2 [GHG] CRUSH
• BACK TO THE FUTURE
• THE MODERN ALTAR OF ZEUS
• A NEW YARDSTICK
Source: Ruddiman (2003)
Source: Marlon et al. (2016) - “Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years"
Source: Kerr et al. (2009) - “Making hay while the sun shines? Socio-economic change, cereal production and climatic deterioration in Early Medieval Ireland.”
Source: Büngten et al (2011) - “2500 Years of Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility"
1783-1784 Laki Eruption
He [Zeus] benignly gives helpful signs to men, and rouses people to work,
reminding them of their livelihood, tells when the soil is best for oxen and
mattocks, and tells when the seasons are right for planting trees and for
sowing every kind of seed - Aratus of Soli, Hellenistic Poet
Source: Büngten et al (2011) - “2500 Years of Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility"
????There are known knowns. These are
things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there
are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns.
There are things we don't know we don't know. - Donald Rumsfeld
Source: https://xkcd.com/1379/
✦ Temp range of ~3.7℉ to 9.54℉ ✦ 80% of the models = Global Average ~3.6℉ by 2050 ✦ Northeast will warm ~5.4℉ by 2050 (e.g.- FASTER) ✦ ‘Extreme’ precip, less snow, heat waves, summer drought, etc. ✦ ENSO = ~15-35% variation in global wheat, oilseeds, & grains
Source: Grund and Walberg (2013)
Accumulated Frost Days
Growing Season Length
Plant Heat Stress
Start Of Field Operations
Source: Monier and Snyder (2016)
https://toolkit.climate.gov/climate-explorer2/
Climate Explorer
AD&$%&TION?✦ Define an appropriate scale [Daily vs. Annual vs. Decadal]
✦ Remain flexible with adaptation strategies [Science changes!]
✦ Learn from analogues [U.S. AND emerging counties]
✦ Season extension v2.0 [Climate variability]
✦ Technology = sidekick [Drought or pests]
✦ Low hanging fruit? [Crops, water, soil]
✦ Avoid Zeus [Raised fields?]
• OUR CO2 [GHG] CRUSH
• BACK TO THE FUTURE
• THE MODERN ALTAR OF ZEUS
• A NEW YARDSTICK
Source: http://www.davidrumsey.com/luna/servlet/s/kx0g35
QUESTIONS?
