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@owengaffneyFuture Earth, director of communicationsStockholm Resilience Centre, director of international media
Speed, scale, connectivityWelcome to the AnthropoceneKlimatkompetens
4th NovemberParis Agreement comes into force
14th NovemberGlobal Carbon Budget released
8th NovemberTrump elected
14th NovemberHottest year on record
20th NovemberArctic sea ice
November rollercoaster
Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.3 ± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2015, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2016: 36.4 ± 2.3 GtCO2, 0.2% higher than 2015
Estimates for 2014 and 2015 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016.Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry
Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (absolute)
The top four emitters in 2015 covered 59% of global emissionsChina (29%), United States (15%), EU28 (10%), India (6%)
Bunker fuels are used for international transport is 3.1% of global emissions.Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 1.2% of global emissions.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (per dollar)
Emissions per unit economic output (emissions intensities) generally decline over timeChina’s intensity is declining rapidly, but is still much higher than the world average
GDP are measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2005 dollars.Source: CDIAC; IEA 2015 GDP to 2013, IMF 2016 growth rates to 2015; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
In the beginning…Our Garden of EdenIn the beginning…Our Garden of Eden
Photo: Mattias Klum
The Holocene - Humankinds 10 000 years of graceStockholm Resilience Centre and Rockström and others, Ecology and Society 2009:14
Photo: Michael A. Stecker
THINKING EXPONENTIALLY
MalmöCopenhagenNew YorkAround Earth 20 timesMars
☐☐☐☐☐✚
Mars and creating a sustainable future for humanity
Image: 20th Century Fox
From a small world on a large planet …
To a large world on a small planet …
Living Planet Report - The trajectory for the future decline of vertebrate wildlife populations is 67% by 2020
The great acceleration of the human enterprise
Image: GLOBAIASteffen, Broadgate, Deutsch, Gaffney, Ludwig. Anthropocene Review 2015
Tipping points: could Earth switch to a new state?
May 2014
“Catastrophic collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet now underway, say scientists”
“Burning the currently attainable fossil-fuel resources is sufficient to
eliminate the ice sheet”
58mSea-level rise
Tipping Points & the Paris AgreementSources: Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. (2016). Nature Climate Change
PreindustrialPre-industrial
19501950
19701970
19901990
CurrentCurrent
Photo: Francois Mori/AP
An unprecedented opportunity for transformation The UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development & the ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement
Photo: Trollbäck and Company
Fortress World or Global Goals?
The World in 2050 – Pathways to sustainable transformation
EMERGING CARBON LAW
HALVING EMISSIONS EVERY DECADE
Moore’s Law for Carbon
Energy consumption by energy type
Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2015, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2010 to 2015
Source: BP 2016; Jackson et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2016
A global transformation – to a safe climate future
Rockström, Gaffney, Schellnhuber, Nakicenovic et al 2016
The Anthropocene Effect:Speed, Scale, Connectivity, Surprise
“I’m sure glad that hole isn’t in our end.”
Trump economics
Cultural worldviews and risk: who fears what?
Hierarchist
Communitarian
Egalitarian
Individualist
GunsClimate changeNanotechnologyGM
Guns controlHPV vaccination
Abortion
Abortion
Climate changeNano techGM
Gun controlHPV vaccination
Dan Kahan, Yale
No threat
Threat
Net zero emissions by 2050Norway announces all new cars electric after 2025Germany and Netherlands aim for 2030
Innovation in the Human Age
A new magazine from Future Earth | anthropocenemagazine.org
@owengaffneyFuture Earth, director of communicationsStockholm Resilience Centre, director of international media
Speed, scale, connectivityWelcome to the AnthropoceneKlimatkompetens
