IBIMET Heat WAVE resiliency

CARISMAND Stakeholder Assembly 2016 Bucharest, Romania 14 - 15 April 2016

Marco Morabito, Alfonso Crisci, Valentina Grasso Institute of Biometeorology - National Research Council

Giada Brandani, Simone OrlandiniCentre of Bioclimatology – University of Florence

Communication strategies and informative tools for the mitigation of heat-wave effects on vulnerable people


What is the heat-wave definition?

There is no universally accepted heat-wave definitionWMO-No. 1142, 2015

McGregor et al., 2005

• Based on WMO description:heat-waves are understood to be periods of unusually hot and dry or hot and humid weather with a detailed onset and cessation, a duration of at least two–three days, usually with a discernible impact on human and natural systems.

• What does the term “unusual” mean?A statistical definition of unusual or extreme would make reference to events that have a five percent chance or less of occurring based on historical records.

• Heat-waves are relative to a location’s climate: the same meteorological conditions can constitute a heat-wave in one place but not in another.

• Heat-waves are geographically diffuse and occur over large areas: this characteristic differ this climate hazards by others (i.e. tropical cyclones, floods, …).

• Heat-waves may be exacerbated in large urban areas: The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect can favor nocturnal temperatures several °C above those of regional temperatures during a heat-wave.

WMO-No. 1142, 2015


The WMO heat-wave definition

Periods of extreme day- and night-time temperatures (greater than local 95th percentile values)

with a duration of two or more days.WMO-No. 1142, 2015

Dry heat-waves(continental or Mediterranean climate or where air is warmed adiabatically)

Stable periods

Clear skies

Large inputs of solar radiation

Also accompanied by windy conditions, which can increase

heat stressVery warm,

oppressive, humid conditions during the

day and at night

Often nocturnal cloud cover

Moist heat-waves(mid-latitude temperate and

maritime climates)

Heat-waves can be both summertime and annual events. Perkins & Alexander, 2012


What are the indicators to identify a heat wave?

Air temperatures(Tmin, Tmax, Tave)

Biometeorological direct indices

(i.e. Heat index, Humidex, …)

Human heat-budget models (rational indices)

(i.e. UTCI, PMV, …)

Pappenberger et al., 2015

EuroHEAT (Improving Public Health Responses to extreme weather/heat-waves) project

• Periods of at least 2 days with Tappmax exceeding the 90th percentile of the monthly distribution

or• Periods of at least 2 days in which

Tmin exceeds the 90th percentile & Tappmax exceeds the median monthly value

D’Ippoliti et al., 2010Heat wave (HW) definitionDuration• Short HW: duration < the median• Long HW: duration ≥ the medianIntensity• Low intensity HW: Tappmax < 95th perc• High intenity HW: Tappmax ≥ 95th percTiming• The first HW of each summer• HWs that occurred between 1 and 3 days after the previous one;• HWs that occurred 3 or more days after the previous one

HW characteristics


When a heat-wave is considered a disaster?

An heat-wave is generally considered as a “Natural HAZARD”: potentially damaging natural physical event that may cause the loss of life, injury or other health impacts,

property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage and degradation.

An heat-wave is defined as a “Natural DISASTER”when a crisis situation occurs causing wide spread damage, destruction and human suffering, which far exceeds the local ability to recover, necessitating for external national or international level assistance.

(Quarantelli, 1985; http://www.emdat.be/glossary/9#letterd)

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

At least one of the following criteria must be fulfilled:• Deaths: 10 or more people deaths.• Affected: 100 or more people

affected/injured/homeless.• Declaration/international

appeal: Declaration by the country of a state of emergency and/or an appeal for international assistance. http://www.emdat.be/

http://www.emdat.be/glossary/9#letterd




http://www.emdat.be/



Are we sure that an heat-wave is a “Natural” disaster?A natural disaster is never solely “natural”

Social factors

Climate Change

Demographic factors

Urban Heat island

Land planning

Transport policies

WMO, 2016

Natural hazards are strongly influenced by human activities:

Environmental pollution

Economical factors

HEAT-WAVE

Heat stress

Energy use

Air pollution+ + +

► Direct consequences for human health

► Synergistic effects of heat and air pollution

► Electric blackouts in large areas

► Anthropogenic heat emissions

► Issues related to food and livelihood securityTransport system+ + +

Water demand Natech: Natural Hazard Triggering

a Technological DisasterCrop & livestock►


Heat-wave disasters worldwide Estimated Deaths and Billion Dollar Losses from Extreme Events in the United States, 2004–2013

U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016


Heat-wave disasters worldwide A total number of 172 heat-wave disasters (about 2% of all

natural disasters) have been identified worldwide since 1950 with about 160,000 total deaths (most of them in Europe)

Heat-waves rarely receive adequate attention: they often lack the spectacular and sudden violence of other hazards, such as tropical cyclones or flash floods.

WMO-No. 1142, 2015

HEAT: THE SILENT KILLER!








Heat-wave disasters in EuropeA total number of 62 heat-wave disasters (about 5% of the total natural disasters and 13%

of all meteorological disasters) have been identified in Europe since 1950

The heat-wave that occurred in Europe in August 2003 was unprecedented and shocked the world with more than 70,000 excess deaths across 12 European countries.

(Robine et al., 2008)

Heat-waves can also have catastrophic effects:

The Russian heat-wave of 2010 cause around 55,000 heat-related deaths. (Barriopedro et al., 2011)

http://www.emdat.be/ http://www.emdat.be/

Heat-wave disaster count






The impact of heat-wave disasters on European mortality

2010 (55,736)

2003 (20,089)

2003 (19,049); 2006 (1,388); 2015 (3,275) 2003 (15,090)

2003 (9,355)

2003 (2,696)

2003 (1,175)

2003 (1,039) http://www.emdat.be/




Who is most vulnerable to heat-waves?All individuals are potentially exposed to heat

https://www.gov.uk/ Environment Agency, 2007

Vulnerability to heat = ƒ (heat hazard, sensitivity, adaptation capacity)(IPCC, 2001)

Heat-waves do not affect in the same way all people: it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects.

However

May vary geographically, depending on the social, economic and political settingElderly

Living alone

Pre-existing diseases Working outdoors or

heavy labour indoors

CardiovascularRespiratory

MentalDiabetes

Kidney failureParkinson

Alzheimer

Economically disadvantaged

Immobile Neurological disorders

Children

https://www.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/


Are there other vulnerable groups to heat-waves?

(Glob Health Action 2013, 6:21364)

Population compositionSocial characteristics

These factors can often be neglected when guidelines and policies are formulated.Glob Health Action 2013, 6:21364

GAP which needs to be addressed in the face of climate change!!!

Only few studies have specifically addressed the issue of ethnicity as a risk factor for heat-related mortality and morbidity.


Risk factors for ethnic minority groups during heat-waves?

Certain “non-White” minority groups in North America have shown higher morbidity and mortality rates associated with hot weather. Yardley et al., 2011. Basu, 2009.

African Americans are particularly vulnerable, also evidenced during the 1995 heat-wave in Chicago. Shonkoff et al., 2009. Whitman et al., 1997. Klinenberg, 1999. Healy, 2005.

Etnicity the shared identity or similarity of a group of people on the basis of one or more factors.

Although some differences between the number of sweat glands have been noted in people of different ethnicities, little or no difference has been found between Caucasians and African

American individuals in terms of sweat loss under the same experimental conditions.

Genetic adaptation and acclimatisation could play a role in differences between cultural groups.

(Glob Health Action 2013)


Ethnic minority groups in Europe

Migrants Tourists

Heat warnings should be issued not only in the official language of a country but also in other commonly used languages.

Non-official language speaking communities and those without access to broadcast media may also be at a disadvantage.

WMO-No. 1142, 2015

Refugees Seasonal workers


Ethnic minority groups in Europe (vulnerability)

Total number of long-term immigrants arriving into the reporting country during the reference year

Tourism destinations — nights spent at tourist accommodation establishments, 2013

(million nights spent in the country by non-residents)

(Eurostat, online data code: tour_occ_ninat)

ESI

FR UK A GR DE HR PT NL CZ B

BGCY PL H IE SE

DKMT

SI FISK EE RO LT LV LU


Population in Europe (exposure)2014

Source: http://www.unhcr.org/pages/4a013eb06.html


Heat-wave disaster counts in Europe





Heat-wave disaster-related deaths in Europe





Heat-Health Action Plans (HHAP) in WHO European Region member states:

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitzewelle_in_Europa_2003

Core elements of HHAP essential to prevent health effects from heat-waves

1. Agreement on a lead body and clear definition of actors’ responsibilities.

2. Accurate and timely alert systems (HHWS).3. Health information plan.4. Reduction in indoor heat exposure.5. Particular care for vulnerable groups.6. Preparedness of the health/social care system.7. Long-term urban planning.8. Real-time surveillance.

(WHO 2008, 2011)

A composite index based on the 8 core HHAP elements has been developed in the field of the WHO/EC EuroHEAT project with the aim of identifying gap areas in

need of further HHAP improvement. (Bittner et al., 2013)

What mitigation actions against heat-waves?




HHAP in WHO European member states

(Bittner et al., 2013)

18 of 51 included countries have developed a heat-health action plan.

GAP areas were represented by:“Indoor heat reduction”; “Urban Planning” “Real-time surveillance”, “Evaluation”

Two countries (Romania and Serbia) do not include an alert system:their Heat-Health Action Plans have to be seen as non-functional.



However, in a previous scientific study (Lowe et al., 2011) a Romanian Heat-wave Early Warning System was already described.

Description of the phases in the heat-wave early warning system

Characteristics of the Romanian heat-wave early warning systems temperature indicators and trigger thresholds


Heat-Health Warning System (HHWS)The HHWS is the main core element of a HHAP:

the lack of an alert system makes the HHAP non-functional.On the basis of the main International Organizations:

an HHWS is designed to alert decision-makers and the general public to impending dangerous hot weather and to serve as a source of advice on avoiding negative health

outcomes associated with hot-weather extremes. An HHWS is composed of a number

of elements which include: Weather forecasting.

A method for assessing how future weather patterns may play out in terms of a range of health outcomes.

Determination of heat-stress thresholds for action.

A system of graded alerts/actions for communication to the:• General population• Specific target groups• Government agencies

(WHO/WMO/UNEP, 1996)

(Baccini et al., 2008)


Main media for communication used in HHWS Television and radio reach the population at large:

• Television has the advantage of presenting the information in graphical format;• Radio can reach a wide audience rapidly in an emergency situation.

Internet is a versatile tool to display large amounts of easily updated information.• Visual graphics and animations, which may attract and motivate users.• Information can target specific/specialized users who are provided with forecasts via a

password.

Hotline numbers are normally available.

Automatic telephone answering devices are effective in reducing the number of telephone calls to the forecast office.

The telephone paging system, the e-mail alert system and SMS allow alarms to be sent to a list of individuals, including emergency managers.

Newspapers are not suitable for the dissemination of warnings. However, they are useful for providing detailed and graphic information and being a powerful medium for public education purposes.


Heat-wave communication strategies and informative tools

# Broadcast Media

Public media with large mass target as newspapers, TV, radio, web portal



# Institutional Risk Communication



# Istitutional Risk Communication

An example of brochure in Romanian language on recommendations for the staff

who assist the elderly at home

Is it a cultural gap?


http://www.euroheat-project.org/dwd/index.php This tool maps the probability of a

forthcoming heat-wave: it represents a valuable

support for health services in planning.


As part of the EU Project EuroHEAT, the German Weather Service has developed an online tool providing medium-term forecasting of heat.

http://ec.europa.eu/health/climate_change/extreme_weather/heatwaves/index_en.htm#fragment2

# Web portals for climate information decision support

http://www.euroheat-project.org/dwd/index.php






http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/1/5/EU-Europe.html

# Web portals for climate information decision supportThis web portal provides the most relevant Multilanguage information needed to prepare for extreme

weather (i.e. heavy rain with risk of flooding, heat waves, …) expected to occur somewhere over Europe.Developed for the Network of European Meteorological Services. This initiative is strongly supported by WMO





# Web portals for climate information decision supportThe colors used on the website maps indicate the severity of the danger and its possible impact.

Clicking on a country will link you to national and regional warnings.Developed for the Network of European Meteorological Services. This initiative is strongly supported by WMO





# Web portals for climate information decision support By clicking on a region within a country, you will find more detailed information for these higher danger

levels on (i.e. the expected time period for any given event to happen and its intensity).Developed for the Network of European Meteorological Services. This initiative is strongly supported by WMO

The information is presented in the selected language and the original language of the country involved.

Extreme high temperature




# Outdoor & Indoor Public information Display

www.abc.net.au

Devices prompt instantaneous data or derived index in

outdoor or indoor spaces.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-20/parts-of-sydney-hit-40c-as-nsw-swelters-through-heatwave/6958014



# City dashboard Public web platform displays of urban key parameters flows in real-time to monitor situations.



# Blog/MicroBlog Twitter

Communication by microblogging platform as Twitter follows OCHA/UN recommendation by using hashtag http://www.unocha.org/node/117960

#OladeCalor#Heatwave#Hitzewelle#emergenzacaldo#Canicule

Coincise Textual_Conversation/Sharable_Content spreading specific information.



# Blog/MicroBlog Twitter

An interesting example of information using twitter

http://www.disit.org/drupal/?q=node/6693





# Blog/MicroBlog Twitter http://www.disit.org/tv/index.php?p=chart_singlechannel&canale=CALDO

http://www.disit.org/tv/index.php?p=chart_singlechannel&canale=CALDO




# Blog/MicroBlog Twitter Relationships between the daily volume of tweets-related heat conversations and heat-waves






# Networking Social Media Facebook Work with social networking for care, share information, social engagement.

Is it a potential useful tool for heat-wave disaster as well?

Facebook’s Safety Check prompts people in the region to mark themselves as “safe.”



# Messengers

Mobile/desktop applications dedicated to personal communication

(talk, textual, users’ content).



# Mobile applications Computer program designed to run on mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet computers

Tools to help raise awareness and decrease risk for those

working or playing in extreme heat conditions.



# Mobile applications A mobile phone APP for REFUGEES

HI HERE is the product of a collaboration between young graduates with an interest in

integration and development.

HI HERE is the result of extensive

research regarding systems of refugee reception and is based

on fieldwork conducted in Southern Italy during the

summer 2015.



# QDF Information Bots Telegram

Fast and effective information retrieval given by a related “Question Driven Framework” available by mobile/desktop application to connect users within sensor or weather services.

DataStickers Bot UTCI Thermal classIcons by local ground sensors @PorcellinoBot opensensorsdata CNR

@ProtcomuneFI - Civil Protection Florence



# Collaborative & open scientific Projects

Share public knowledge and geographic information to increase awareness and help

disaster preparedness/response.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Heat_waves_in_Europe http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Heat-Wave

https://github.com/meteosalute/mapheatrisk

Mapping of heat-related risks in the elderly in major Italian cities

(Morabito et al., 2015)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Heat_waves_in_Europe



http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Heat-Wave

http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Heat-Wave





# Health Monitoring & wearable devicesA remote health monitoring system based on wearable sensors.

Health related information is gathered via body-worn wireless sensors and transmitted to the caregiver via an information gateway such as a mobile phone. Caregivers can use this

information to implement interventions as needed.WorkersElderly

Patel et al., 2012

https://jneuroengrehab.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-0003-9-21





Automatic Warning Web Platform activated when predetermined conditions occurs in measured parameters by connected sensors or in web portal communication channels.

# Feed-based notification systems


Relationships between heat-wave communication strategies and informative tools

& main stakeholders in the Tuscany region.

No relationship Moderate relationship High relationship


Relationships between heat-wave communication strategies and informative tools

& vulnerable people in the Tuscany region.

No relationship Moderate relationship High relationship


CONCLUSIONS


Hot days, hot nights and heat-waves had become more frequent over the previous 50 years (IPCC, 2013).

The length, frequency and/or intensity of heat-waves would likely increase over most land areas in the

twenty-first century (IPCC 2012).

An effective communication and dissemination strategy is fundamental to reduce the risk associated with

extreme heat.

Communicated precisely and adjusted according

to the target or vulnerable group

The use of effective communication strategies and the application of appropriate informative tools

might help to reduce or remove the gaps between the provision, understanding and use of information.

Partially!!!

Gap in long term measures and a need to strengthen surveillance and evaluation.Only about 34% of the WHO Member States

have developed heat-health action plans.

Are European countries prepared for the next

big heat-wave?


Heat waves are already to arrive!!!April 14, 2016 April 15, 2016 April 16, 2016

April 17, 2016 April 18, 2016 April 19, 2016

April 20, 2016 April 21, 2016 April 22, 2016





THANK YOU FOR THE

ATTENTION!!!For more information:Marco Morabito

[email protected]

Science

IBIMET Heat WAVE resiliency