Chlorophyll from space, Gene Feldman, NASA

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and (Ocean 2015 Initiative) Global Change Institute University of Queensland, St Lucia, Australia

Climate change and the Ocean: regional challenges and opportunities

2207 - Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of

warming and acidification on natural and human systems

AR5 scoping meeting

13-17 July, 2009 Venice, Italy

Government review of AR4 (WGII) Functional elements of oceans not captured Lack of impact assessment on a regional basis Trans-boundary opportunities missed

IPCC AR5 (2014)

1. Ocean regions 2. Regional impacts 3. Decision frame-works 4. Conclusion

Climate change and the Ocean: regional challenges and opportunities

IPCC WGII Ocean reprint series: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/ocean/

What do we mean by ocean regions?

HLSB 20 m tons yr–1)

EUS: 5 m tons yr–1)

EBUE 12 m tons yr–1)

CBS: 19 m tons yr–1)

Seven regional types: based on productivity and oceanography

1. Ocean regions

Recent past: Past 60 years of Hadley Centre HadISST1.1 data

PDO

Long-term variability

Future: CMIP5, http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/). Recent past: Past 60 years Hadley Centre HadISST1.1 data

Physical, chemical and biological responses attributable to climate

change at the regional scale?

Assessment of physical,

chemical and biological

change across seven key ocean regions.

Detection and attribution matrix - confidence

Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30 OLSM

Medium to very high confidence in detection and attribution

KEY EXAMPLES

Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30 OLSM

Medium to very high confidence in detection and attribution

KEY EXAMPLES

Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30 OLSM

Detection and attribution chains?

Importance of attribution chains

Physical Change: Increased ocean temperature and decreased pH

EXAMPLE

Very high confidence in detection and attribution

Biological Response: Mass coral bleaching and mortality, intertidal invertebrate mass mortality in regions like the Mediterranean Sea.

Very high confidence in detection and attribution

Likely future (RCP8.5): Loss of coral dominated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Community change in intertidal communities as extreme events increase in frequency and severity.

Ocean regions: Sub-tropical gyre systems (e.g. Pacific gyre)

Coastal Boundary systems (e.g. Coral Triangle)

Semi-enclosed seas (e.g. Red Sea)

Implications: Loss of ecosystems services, income and livelihoods

1. Ocean regions 2. Regional impacts 3. Decision frame-works 4. Conclusion

Climate change and the Ocean: regional challenges and opportunities

IPCC WGII Ocean reprint series: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/ocean/

Identifying change at the regional scale in the ocean presents opportunities for multilateral problem-solving. Acting now will drive significant advantages for communities and industries

Source: WGII AR5 Ch30

Using regional changes to drive policy development

Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30

Frame-works for decision makers

Source: IPCC AR5 Ch30

Frame-works for decision makers

1. Bringing a regional perspective to oceans has increased our understanding integrated and trans-national impacts of climate change.

2. Detected impacts vary in type, scale, confidence and influence on human communities and industries.

3. Many regional changes can be confidently attributed to ocean warming and acidification.

4. Many regional challenges are beyond the scope of adaptation yet remain serious risks with mitigation the only way out.

5. The identification of change at a regional scale presents opportunities for multi lateral problem-solving and knowledge sharing.

Conclusions

IPCC WGII Ocean reprint series: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/publications/ocean/