FOOD AND FOOD SECURITY: MAJOR RECENT CHANGES AND PROJECTIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA: MAIN RESULTS OF CHAPTER 27 CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA OF THE IPCC AR5 WG2

GRACIELA MAGRININTA-Argentina

May 12, 2014Fortaleza, Brazil

The region has based its economic growth in natural

resource exploitation (agriculture, mining, energy), which

involves direct and intensive use of land and water

Deforestación

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Har

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ha)

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t),

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q/h

a) Yield

Production

Harvest area

Increases in the global demand for food and biofuels

promoted a sharp increase in agricultural production

mainly associated with the expansion of planted areas

This trend is predicted to continue in the future

ARGENTINA

Differences in LAND AVAILABILITY

≠Agriculture

The region shows a marked structural heterogeneity, where

modern production structures coexist with large segments

of the population with low productivity and income levels.

Ecosystems are being and will be affected in isolation and

synergistically by climate variability/change and land use

changes, which are comparable drivers of environmental change

Monoculture trends, <rotations, < pastures

<Soil Organic Carbon, <Nutrients, #Water balance

Current management practices are leading to a deterioration

of ecosystems throughout the continent

CENTRAL and SOUTHAMERICAOBSERVED

IMPACTS

Soybean Maize Pastures

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Increases in summer crops

and pasture productivity

Expansion of agriculture

Although, inter-annual climate variability and more frequent extreme rainfall is

severely affecting inter year crops productivity

ARGENTINA: Expansion of the agricultural frontiers

Bolivia: Migrating crops towards upper parts

CENTRAL and SOUTHAMERICA

Food security

Foodsecurity

FUTURE IMPACTS

Sugarcane

Food security

some crops could be benefited until mid-21st-century. Risk: interannual (extreme eventes) and interdecade variability

< Beans yield < Corn yield< Cassava yield < areas favorable to cowpea bean

< maize, bean and rice90% of agricultural production destined to internal consumption

The best way to be prepared to adapt to future climate change is by assisting people to cope

with current climate variability

USE OF CLIMATE FORECASTINSURANCE WARNING SYSTEMS

Risk management

DROUGHT IN AMAZONIA

Improved climate prediction and Dissemination of information (i.e. forecasts and increased collaboration between stakeholders and ex- tension agencies) would provide the necessary information to permit land users to take preventive steps to decrease crop and ranching losses and reduce the potential of fires running out of control.

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NIÑO

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NIÑA

MaizRendimiento

MAIZE YieldARGENTINA

El Niño La Niña

The pre-Colombian communities developed pioneering efforts to adapt to adverse local conditions and define sustainable development paths

Local and indigenous knowledge

In Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala traditional practices: soil and water conservation, cover cropping, organic fertilizer and integrated pest management have proven more resilient to erosion and runoff and have helped retain more topsoil and moisture during periods of droughts.

SUSTAINABILITY EFFORTS

CROP DIVERSIFICATIONAndean communities, pest outbreaks , pathogen transmission

Harvest, storage, temporal transfer and efficient use of rainfall.Agronomic practices: fallowing, crop sequences, groundwater

management, no-till, cover-crops, fertilization.Deficit irrigation

WATER MANAGEMENT

Wild Maize and Potato in LA

Genetic advances

Thank you!