EGOV / ePart 2015 - Policy Compass Workshop Presentation

POLICY COMPASSOPEN DATA DRIVEN POLICY ANALYSIS AND IMPACT EVALUATION

Dr. Sotiris KoussourisDecision Support Systems Laboratory - DSSLabNational Technical University of Athens - NTUA

31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece

Evaluating Policy Making ....

• Which metrics?

• For which kind of applications?

• How do we exactly interpret concepts like• Quality of life• Prosperity• Performance measurement


?

The Social Indicators Zoo


Aggregate (summary) indicators• e.g. GDP

Composite Indicators

Headline Indicators• Sustainability

Indicators

International, National,

Regional and Local

indicators

Issues on the use of indicators

• Institutionalization: setup routine procedures and practices to ensure the continuing existence of an indicator and to legitimize the method and concept of the measure. (Drawbacks identified)

• Avoiding bias: indicators should be produced by professional statistical agencies that have a strong awareness of policy issues, without having responsibility for them.

• Maintaining the sensitive balance between (global) standardization and local democracy (identifying the relevant measure to the specific local circumstances)


A methodological framework of indicator development [Coombes, Wong, 1994]


Step 1: Conceptual consolidationClarifying the concept to be represented by the analysis

Step 2: Analytical StructuringProviding an analytical framework within which key factors will be analysed

Step 3: Identification of IndicatorsTranslation of key factors identified in step 2 into specific measurable indicators

Step 4: Synthesis of indicator valuesSynthesizing the identified indicators into composite index/indices or into analytical summary

How can Policy Compass contribute?

• "Open data" movement and the "social computing" capabilities of today open a fantastic observatory of experimentation with (and for) Social Indicators

• Assess the limits of “causal analysis” in policy making, combining indicators with causal models

• Assess the feasibility of assisting policy design and decision-making with quantitative handles (Social Indicators) at the global & local level

• Evaluate the ramifications and the consequences of mixing the previous items with eGov techniques, ePart tools & Social Media.


The Problem• Internet has evolved into a rich source

for information but also to an instrument of spreading misinformation and propaganda

• Lack of consensus about a suitable metric for measuring progress

• Difficulty of objectively assessing the impacts of government policies

The Proposed Approach Open Public Data Prosperity Indicators Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Argumentation Technology Deliberation Platforms and Social

Media

The Context


Improve the quality and transparency of the policy

analysis and evaluation phases of the policy cycle for a variety of stakeholders, ranging from

citizens to policy makers

Agenda Setting

Analysis

Adoption

Implementation/ Monitoring

Policy cycle

Policy Compass: Overview

A research prototype of an easy-to-use, highly visual and intuitive tool for:


Metrics

•Constructing policy metrics from open data sources.

Charts

•Generating graphs and charts visualizing metrics

Annotations

•Annotating graphs and charts with events.

FCM

•Constructing causal models as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM).

Web2.0•Sharing and debating in Web2.0

Argumentation

•Summarizing and visualizing the debates in argument maps

Overview of Main Concepts


Policy Compas

s

Online Deliberatio

n and Argument Mapping

Policy Analysis

Policy Monitorin

g and Evaluatio

n

Pillar I: Prosperity Indexes

• Prosperity metrics capture the level of welfare and quality of life in a given region or society.

• Prosperity is a vague and subjective concept with essential psychological, social and economic aspects.

• There is no consensus about how to objectively measure prosperity• Indicators of economic growth:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)• Genuine Progress Index (GPI)• Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW)• GINI Index

• Alternatives:• Human Development Index (HDI)• Legatum Prosperity Index• “Healthy life years statistics” by Eurostat


Pillar II: Open Data

• Open and unrestricted access to large scale data sets is essential for political engagement and scientific research

• Available large scale data sets have nowadays their own self-contained existence rules.

• Micro-data can be used to construct new indicators of multifaceted nature.

• Sources of micro-data:• Eurobarometer surveys• European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) by Eurostat• Urban Audit (the European cities Eurostat)


Pillar III: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

• FCMs provide a well-founded, general-purpose and intuitive method for modelling and simulating relationships between variables.

• An FCM is a fuzzy directed graph of nodes and edges, where nodes represent fuzzy concepts, describing behavioral characteristics of a system that occur to some degree, and directed edges represent the causal relationships among these concepts.


• The graph edges are weighted by a real value from the interval [-1, 1], which expresses the strength of the relation between two concepts.

• FCMs have been widely used to model and simulate policies and their effects.

Pillar IV: Argumentation Technology

• Argumentation support systems are computer software for helping people participate in various kinds of goal-directed dialogues in which arguments are exchanged.

• The idea of using argumentation support systems for e-Participation can be traced back at least to Horst Rittel’s pioneering work in the early 1970s who used visual maps of arguments, to help people collaborate and find solutions to what he called “wicked problems”.

• “Wicked problems” have no algorithmic, scientific or objectively optimal solutions for a variety of reasons, including the lack of consensus among stakeholders about utilities and values.

• Typically, e-Participation projects make use of generic groupware systems (e.g. discussion fora, online surveys, etc.) not providing though specific technical support for argumentation.


Pillar V: Deliberation Platforms and Social Media

• Deliberation platforms incarnate the efforts taken by government agencies, to increase citizens’ engagement in their decision and policy making processes.

• The first wave of deliberation platforms has witnessed extensive information on government activities, decisions, plans and policies, the proliferation of e-voting and e-consultation spaces, along with various types of e-fora.

• Still, the first generation of deliberation platforms did not meet the original expectations.

• The advent of Web 2.0 tools has created a more vivid environment and the popularity of the social media has set a new battlefield for the concept of e-Participation.


Use Case Scenarios @ The Policy Compass “workflow”


Policy Monitoring

and Evaluation

Data Discovery and

ProcessingMetrics

Definition

Metrics Calculation

and Visualization

Graphs Annotation

Seeking further

explanation of policy

impacts

Sharing Knowledge and Results

Policy Analysis

Discovery of Open Data related to Policies

Creating or Refining Causal

Networks

Turning Causal

Networks to FCMs

FCMs Simulation

and Impacts Visualization

Sharing Knowledge and Results

Online Deliberation

and Argument Mapping

Initiation of /Participation

in Deliberations

Transforming Structured

Discussions into Argument

Maps

Navigation through

Argument Maps

Example of an FCM regarding Drug Phenomenon

10 February 2015 Policy Compass Plenary Meeting, Berlin, Germany 16

eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece

Deaths from Drugs vs. Drug Law Offences

31 August 2015

http://alpha.policycompass.eu

Drug Mortalities Drug Law Offences

Lessons Learnt

• There exists a growing concern on the limits of mesuring societal welfare with GDP-like metrics. GDP although very successful, is not able to derive deep results on many aspects of everyday life.

• It makes perfect sense to attempt constructing aggregate, headline or composite indicators, to measure important social phenomena at the regional /local level.

• There do not exist ‘objective’ or ‘neutral’ indicators of any kind. One should not focus on constructing objective indicators, but rather useful ones.

• Open Data calls for a broad experimentation on the calculation and exploitation of indicators, and is definitely interesting scientifically and will provide useful "social" feedback.


www.PolicyCompass.eu

www.twitter.com/PolicyCompassEU

www.facebook.com/PolicyCompass

PolicyCompass

Thank you!

Dr. Sotiris KoussourisDecision Support Systems Laboratory - DSSLabNational Technical University of Athens - NTUA

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Science

EGOV / ePart 2015 - Policy Compass Workshop Presentation