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Detecting and Documenting Biodiversity Dynamics in the Face
of Global Change
A. Townsend PetersonUniversity of Kansas
Studying Drivers of Biodiversity Change• Many potential drivers: land use change, direct
exploitation, climate change, sea level change…
• Anticipate future change: requires present-day model, and future projections of drivers
• Document change to date: requires detailed before-and-after views of distributions, abundances, and/or conservation status
• We will explore both of these approaches…
Point-based Distributional Data
• Definition: data records placing a particular species at a particular location at a particular point in time
• Primary data – this is the basis of all other distributional data
• Abundant – millions of specimens, probably billions of observations are ‘out there’
• Major initiatives – ORNIS, eBird, GBIF, etc.• Dimensionless – a point has no area; biodiversity
‘points’ have only a basement level of uncertainty• Useful at any resolution above the basement level
of uncertainty
PROJECTIONS TO FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS…
Ecological Niche Modeling
• Empirical, data-driven search for associations between occurrence and environment
• Significant predictive ability in hundreds of studies
ADD EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE
Sea Level Rise and Coastline Effects
US Effects
COMPLEMENT vs OVERLAP?
MEASURING AVIFAUNAL TURNOVER IN RECENT HISTORICAL TIMES…
Well-sampled Recent Grid Squares
Species Gains
Species Losses
Overall Species Turnover
Significant Drivers of Turnover
• Observed precipitation change – NO significant effect
• Observed temperature change – YES – strong significant effects
• Human impact on landscapes – NO significant effect
• BUT – results are coarse in nature …
Misantla, Veracruz
Valley of Mexico
Methods IIICheck coincidence between the two
sources
Quiscalus palustris
Sandhill CraneGrus canadensisPresent-day distribution
"Oldmexicocity" by Juan Gómez de Trasmonte, 1628 (d. 17th century) - Mexico Maxico. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oldmexicocity.jpg#/media/File:Oldmexicocity.jpg
Gran Canal outlet in Zumpango: «Cajas del desagüe del gran canal (1)» de Marrovi - Trabajo propio. Disponible bajo la licencia CC BY-SA 3.0 vía Wikimedia Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cajas_del_desag%C3%BCe_del_gran_canal_(1).JPG#/media/File:Cajas_del_desag%C3%BCe_del_gran_canal_(1).JPG
Misantla, Veracruz
• 2012 thesis in the Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM
• Site well known and well characterized from early ornithological collections…
Misantla 2001-2012
Misantla 1850-present
"Battle of Veracruz" by Adolphe Jean-Baptiste Bayot - Originally published in The War Between the United States and Mexico, Illustrated, 1851. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Battle_of_Veracruz.jpg#/media/File:Battle_of_Veracruz.jpg
Observed Change … Summary
Can we do this in India?
What’s Missing?
BIODIVERSITY INFORMATICS: MAKING PRIMARY BIODIVERSITY DATA AVAILABLE
Biodiversity Informatics Training Curriculum Courses
• Data Capture• Biodiversity Inventories• Data Cleaning• Data Publishing• Biodiversity Data Analysis• Species Descriptions• Using R• Using QGIS• Possibly modules on
Refine, EstimateS (under development)
• Public Health Applications
• Ecological Niche Modeling
• National Biodiversity Diagnoses
• Conservation Implementation
• Building Biodiversity Informatics Institutions
Project Webpage
Communications - Facebook
Interchange – Scientific Journal
BITC Version 1.1
• The curriculum is basically complete– 500+ videos make up the present curriculum
version, covering topics from data capture to building institutions
• The curriculum is available– online via the project webpage– in pdf format via Biodiversity Informatics (soon to
appear)– on USB keys and in DVD formats (by request)
Summary• Biodiversity is highly dynamic, but the natural
dynamics are augmented by anthropogenic change in recent decades
• Studying biodiversity change is complex:– Future projections are hypothetical and hard to test– Assessments of change already realized are highly
dependent on before-and-after datasets• Creativity is key in making these studies possible• Access to abundant and comprehensive data is
crucial to any advances
Links
• Town Peterson [email protected]
• BITC webpage http://biodiversity-informatics-training.org/ • Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/groups/BiodiversityInformatics/
