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Maureen Arguedas Prepare by: B.M. Campbell (CIAT), M.Arguedas (CATIE), P.K. Aggarwal (CIMMYT), K. Deering (CARE), J. Gonsalves (IIRR), A.M. Loboguerrero (CIAT), S. Nielsen (Univ Copenhagen), S. Partey (ICRISAT), M. Radeny (ILRI), L. Sebastian (IRRI), P. Thornton (ILRI), R. Zougmoré (ICRISAT) Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives For the climate change breakout session

Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

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Page 1: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Maureen Arguedas

Prepare by: B.M. Campbell (CIAT), M.Arguedas (CATIE), P.K. Aggarwal (CIMMYT), K. Deering (CARE), J. Gonsalves (IIRR), A.M. Loboguerrero (CIAT), S. Nielsen (Univ Copenhagen), S. Partey (ICRISAT), M. Radeny (ILRI), L. Sebastian (IRRI), P. Thornton (ILRI), R. Zougmoré (ICRISAT)

Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

For the climate change breakout session

Page 2: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

Methodology

• Evidence of the relationship climate change-poverty

• Structured literature review was undertaken

• 112 papers were reviewed

Page 3: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

General Results• Climate change (CC) and poverty is very linked but there is

a limited evidence

• Impacts of CC in terms of – Production and productivity– Climate-crop relationship– Income effects (in a few cases)

• Often the papers focuses in resilience, adaptability and vulnerability components– Vulnerability= f (Exposure, Sensitivy and Adaptive

Capacity)

Page 4: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

General Results

• Most studies focus on extreme events relatedto temperature and rainfall

• Less attention to: flooding, sea-level rise, storm, salt water intrusion, coastal erosion, cyclones and glacial melt

Page 5: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

Poverty and climate change relationship

• Generalisations are difficult to make due tothe complexity of the relationship and thelocally-specific impacts

• CC is often not the main driver of vulnerabilityor change in poverty but in general mayincrease poverty (or keep people in poverty)

Page 6: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.orgP

ove

rty

and

clim

ate

chan

ge Production and foodsecurity

Income diversificationsand migrations

Income and prices

Consumption

Nutrition

Late onset of rains reduce options for planting dates (Andes)

Diversification increased as a result of reduction in rainfalls and some households or members migrate (Senegal)

10% increase in temperature caused a 6% decrease in rural incomeand 10% increased in cropland value (Brazil)

Consumption increased in some cases and decline in others, depending on the nature of the shocks (México)

Diversification of livestock species was associated with shorterperiods of food deficit, better dietary intake and lower magnitudeof household food insecurity (East Africa)

Page 7: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

Adaptation options• Adaptation options will be dependent on agro-

ecological zone, farming systems and resourceendowment

• Actions to promote adaptation can sometimes lead to maladaptation and inequity

• Building adaptive capacity – social and human capacity – is a no-regret strategy

Page 8: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

Gaps• CC and poverty linkages are under-researched

• Gender and social differentiation are poorly covered

• Few studies assess diversification strategies

• Little consideration of how differential vulnerability and/or resilience mediates the impact on poverty

• Little attention to post production and social issues

Page 9: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

What research is needed?• CC and poverty (e.g. income, prices,

diversification)

• CC and social differentation

• CC and post-production

• CC-adaptive capacity, mal-adaptation

• CC and transformation (e.g. migration)

?

Page 10: Climate change and poverty: Regional perspectives

Agricultural research for rural prosperity: Rethinking the pathways www.scienceforum2016.org

Breakout groups1. Is the published literature really so poor, in terms of our understanding of the climate change-poverty relationship in different places and circumstances?

• What are some key methods and approaches to improve our understanding of climate change as a driver of poverty?

2. How can poverty alleviation programs be designed to counteract climate change impact?

• What are the scientific community role in the designing of this kind of programs?

3. How do we identify adaptations pathways and processes and prevent maladaptation in order to reduce poverty?

• What are some of the key research questions in this regard?

4. How do we balance the production focus with a broader food system focus?

• What other aspects of the food system (e.g nutrition) should be investigated to understand the climate change-poverty relationship?