Analytical tools to identify priority actions for climate-resilient communities: A case study

SVRK Prabhakar et. al. and Kenta Usui

IGES

13 May 2014 Presented at the World Bank Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum, Almaty Kazakhstan

This presentation is based on the work published in:

Prabhakar, S.V.R.K (Ed.). 2014.

Adaptation decision making frameworks and tools: Multi-criteria decision making tools for prioritizing adaptation actions at community level

Hayama, Japan: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies.

http://pub.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/view.php?docid=4969

This work is funded by the "Environment Research and Technology Development Fund" of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan

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Community decides

• Appropriate decision-making at the community level is critical for adaptation

– Adaptation is highly context-specific and no one-size-fits-all.

– Adaptation require engagement of local community

• But how do communities decide?

– Community members have varying understanding on climate change and adaptation measures

– What criteria underlies their decisions?

– What factors influence their decisions?

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Analysing decision-makings • A decision-making process on adaptation has been

analyzed through Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

– Bangladesh, India and Nepal

– Drought-prone and flood-prone communities

– Male and female group

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Drought-prone Flood-prone

Bangladesh Chapainawabganj district

Rajbari district

India Kanpur Dehat district Udham Singh Nagar district

Nepal Birganj district Bardiya district

Methodology: AHP • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

– AHP allows users to employ multiple criteria to assess and compare various alternatives

– Each criteria is weighed (each criteria has different importance)

– The weight of each criteria is determined by pairwise ranking process(comparing two criteria to see which one is more important)

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7

Salad Curry Fried chicken Sushi

Price Taste Healthy

Choose dinner for tonight Go

al

Cri

teri

a A

lter

nat

ives

0.10 0.65 0.25

0.25 0.05 0.4 0.35

AHP application: An example e.g. How to choose from a restaurant menu?

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Price

Taste

9 7 3 1 3 5 7 9

Case 1: Nepal – drought -male

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Escape

drought

Cost

effectiveness

Harvesting

surface water

Pump for

groundwater

Alternative

Crops Pest Control

Drought

resistance

varieties

Increase in

crop yield

Availability of

water

Bring effect

on policy Replicable

Easy to see

the benefit

Less

investment

Reduce drought sensitivity and improve adaptive capacity G

oal

C

rite

ria

Ind

icat

ors

P

ract

ices

0.39 0.38 0.06 0.06 0.12

0.65 0.18 0.09 0.03 0.05

0.78 0.11 0.11

Case 1: Nepal – drought -male

9 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Pump for groundwater

Harvesting surface water

Pest control

Alternative crops

Drought resistant varieties

Aggregated score of adaptation practices and their composition

Availability of Water

Increase in Crop Yield

Escape drought

Cost effectiveness

Less investment

Case 2: Bangladesh – flood-female

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Improved

communication

Balanced

nutrition

Embankment Modern ag.

knowledge

Income

diversification

Increase in

income

Increase in

yield

Cost

effectiveness

Communicabil

ity Relates to

alternative income

Homestead

elevation

Reduce flood sensitivity and improve adaptive capacity

Go

al

Cri

teri

a In

dic

ato

rs

Pra

ctic

es

0.12 0.77 0.10

0.14 0.14 0.27 0.10 0.34

0.04 0.78 0.18

Case 2: Bangladesh – flood-female

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Modern agricultureknolwedge

Embankment

Income diversification

Increase in yield

Increase in income

Improved communication

Balanced nutrition

Homestead elevation

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– Considerable variation from community to community

– In drought-prone areas, boring wells were generally preferred over surface water. Water-saving activities such as change in cropping pattern and organic farming were also preferred.

– In flood-prone areas, saving assets/lives through embankment, as well as access to alternative employment also preferred.

– Limited but visible difference identified between male and female groups

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Key findings

• AHP can reveal the decision-making process, identify priority actions, and also suggest adaptation indicators.

• However, pairwise ranking process can be time consuming and difficult to be understood.

• AHP more understood in relatively well-educated community.

• Clear incentives (e.g. possibility of project funding) desirable to engage community members

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Role of AHP to identify priority actions

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iges.or.jp

Contact for details on this study: prabhakar@iges.or.jp

Criteria

Hazard

India Drought Male Easy to understand (0.5), easy to observe (0.5)

Female Easy to understand (0.5), easy to observe (0.5)

Flood Male Prior experience (0.9)

Female N/A

Bangladesh

Drought Male Cost effectiveness (0.76)

Female Relates to production (0.5), Relates to economic well-being (0.31), cost effectiveness (0.30)

Flood Male Communicability (0.76)

Female Communicability (0.78)

Nepal Drought Male Bring effect on policy (0.78)

Female Easy to see benefits (0.71)

Flood Male Easy to see impacts (0.79)

Female Easy to see effect (0.76) 15

Indicators Country Hazard Gender Indicators

India Drought Male Reduction in soil erosion (0.36), Water availability (0.33)

Female Water availability (0.75)

Flood Male Reduction in erosion (0.60)

Female N/A

Bangladesh

Drought Male Availability of irrigation water (0.56),

Female Irrigation water availability (0.36), increase in income (0.19)

Flood Male Improved communication (0.4), increase in yield (0.38)

Female Homestead elevation (0.34), improved communication (0.27)

Nepal Drought Male Availability of water (0.65)

Female Availability of water (0.52)

Flood Male Land saved (0.37), property saved (0.24)

Female Human lives saved (0.44) 16

Practices Country Hazard Gender Practices

India Drought Male Land levelling(1.0), Bore well (0.83)

Female Water availability (1.0), Land levelling (0.47)

Flood Male River embankment (1.0),

Female N/A

Bangladesh

Drought Male Groundwater (1.0)

Female Groundwater (1.0)

Flood Male Embankment (1.0)

Female Embankment (1.0)

Nepal Drought Male Pump for groundwater (1.0), Harvesting surface water (0.98)

Female Pump for groundwater (1.0), Harvesting surface water (0.94), Green manures (0.84)

Flood Male Early warning (1.0), Embankment (0.67)

Female Evacuation of livestock (1.0), Evacuation of assets (0.82)

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