African animal agriculture:Grasping opportunities as a great

livestock transition gets under way

6th All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureNairobi, Kenya, 27 – 30 October 2014

Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI

Key messages

• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggsis driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector

• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.We need to work now to influence how it is met.

• The growth presents smallholders, who provide most ofthese commodities today, with big new opportunities

• The growth also presents Africa with many big andnew equity, health and environmental challenges

• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help, not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health

Rising demand for meat, milk and eggs is a global phenomenon . . .

. . . but demand is greatest inSouth Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

In 2012, cattle meat and milk were 2 of the top 4highest value agricultural commodities in Africa

Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050

From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year

From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year

From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year

In terms of meat, milk and eggs,developing countries are where all the action is

Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

developingdeveloped

Mill

ion

met

ric t

onne

s

FAO 2006

To 2050, demand for meat & dairy in SS Africa & South Asia outstrips that for cereals & roots/tubers

Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities

developed developing SSA SA

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

cerealsroot/tubermeatdairy

% c

hang

e 20

05/0

7 to

205

0

Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

In the next 35 years, production of milk,

poultry meat & eggsand ruminant meat will

skyrocket in Africa/Middle East

% increase in production of livestock products:2000–2050

Raw milk Monogastric meat & eggs

Ruminant meat0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

EuropeLatin AmericaAfrica/Middle East

%

Herrero et al. 2014

What’s special aboutAfrican smallholder livestock food production?

• 90% of animal products are produced and consumedin the same country or region

• Most are produced by smallholders

• Over 70% of livestock productsare sold ‘informally’

• 500 million smallholders produce 80% of the developing world’s food

• 43% of the agriculturalworkforce is female

What’s special aboutAfrican mixed crop-livestock production systems?

• Mixed systems are a bigsource of ruminant meatin 2000 and 2050– Europe: 42% (temperate)– L America: 48% (humid)– Africa/M East: 38% (arid)

• More than 50% of milk in allregions is from mixed systems

• Big increases in milk by2050 continue to be inmixed systems, esp. inAfrica and M East

What’s special aboutAfrican smallholder livestock keepers?

East Africa

• 1 million Kenyan small-holders keep Africa’slargest dairy herd

• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers

• Small- and large-scaleKenyan poultry and dairy producers have same levels of efficiency and profits

IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –the only question is how

Scenario #1Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Scenario #2Africa meets

livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-how

Scenario #3Africa meets

livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systems

Scenario #1: Bad news for Africa’s economies,employment and small-scale livestock livelihoods

Downsides of importing milk, meatand eggs to meet Africa’s rising demand:

• A huge import billstraining foreign exchange

• Little growth ofindigenous livestockenterprises

• Industrial-scale pollutionin developed countries

• Mass emigration of youth(and labour) fromdeveloping countries

Downsides of meeting the rising demand for animal-source foods mostly via private large-scale industrial production units:

• Relevant know-how is restricted to a few enterprises

• Employment opportunities, esp.for women and youth, are lost

• Increased demand for feed and waterdegrades natural resources

• Industrial-scale livestock productionpollutes the environment and incurs large financialas well as environmental costs

• The synergies of mixed crop-livestock farming systemsare lost as animal and crop production become separate

Scenario #2: Bad news for Africa’s equity gaps, environments and national economies

Scenario #3: The opportunity is now!

Upsides of using the transition period for transformation:

• The coming livestock transitions and consolidations offer unprecedented opportunities for millions of African’s to improve their food production as well as their health, livelihoods and environments

• But this will not happen without integrated and enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions − all provided at sufficient scale

• Of the world’s 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, some:﹣1/3 will find alternate livelihoods to livestock﹣1/3 will succeed at market-oriented livestock livelihoods﹣1/3 could go either way

AACAA’s 5 themes will shape this livestock transition

The five themes that are the focus of this year’s AACAA will shape the future of African animal agriculture

• African smallholderlivestock farming

• African pastoralherding

• African livestockmarketing

• Livestock futures forAfrica’s youth

• Capacity in Africananimal agriculture

African smallholder livestock farming

African pastoral herding

Africa livestock marketing

Livestock futures for Africa’s youth

Capacity in African animal agriculture

Key messages

• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggsis driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector

• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.We need to work now to influence how it is met.

• The growth presents smallholders, who provide most ofthese commodities today, with big new opportunities

• The growth also presents Africa with many big andnew equity, health and environmental challenges

• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions will ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help, not hurt, broad growth and human and environmental health

Thank you!

Livestock-based options for economic well-being in Africa

AACAA side event Tuesday 28 October 14:30−18:00followed by ILRI-hosted dinner

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

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