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ADAPTATION AND SILVICULTURAL
DECISION-MAKING
SRS NRS RMRS Chippewa NF San Juan NF
The Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center January 12, 2016
Adaptation and Mitigation = Synergistic
Mitigation Adaptation
Sequester Carbon in Trees, Forests, and Products
Conserve Carbon Stocks Strengthen Adaptability of Forest-Dependent Communities
Create Better-Adapted Forests
Mitigation
Modified from FAO 2010
Adaptation and Mitigation Defined ADAPTATION • Adjustment of human or natural systems in response to
climate change – Position forests to become more healthy, resistant, &
resilient – Facilitate ecosystem responses to climate change
when appropriate MITIGATION • Human activities to reduce the effects of climate change
by reducing sources and enhancing sinks of greenhouse gases
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change and
meet goals and objectives?
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate Change Trajectory
?
Climate-Driven Changes
Uncertainty and Risk
Design actions that are robust across a range of potential future conditions
Option #1 – Resistance Improve the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain relatively unchanged conditions
• Short-term • High-value
Millar et al. 2007, 2008
Option #1 – Resistance
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate Change Trajectory
?
Option #2 – Resilience Accommodate some degree of change, but encourage a return to a prior condition after disturbance
Millar et al. 2007, 2008
Photo: USFS
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate Change Trajectory
?
Option #2 – Resilience
Option #3 – Transition (Response) Intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to adaptively respond to changing/new conditions
Millar et al. 2007, 2008
TIME
Climate Change Trajectory
?
Option #3 – Transition (Response)
Reduce climate change impacts
Promote change
Facilitate adaptive responses
Maintain current
conditions
Resistance
Transition (Response)
Resilience
Adaptation Options
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
• Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management Workbook approach
Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management
objectives given projected impacts and
vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness
of implemented actions.
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management
objectives given projected impacts and
vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness
of implemented actions.
Vulnerability assessments,
scientific literature, and other resources
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management
objectives given projected impacts and
vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness
of implemented actions.
Vulnerability assessments,
scientific literature, and other resources
Adaptation Strategies and
Approaches
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
Forest Adaptation Resources
• 10 strategies, 40 approaches
• Result of literature review & expert feedback and review
• Provides a “menu” of possible actions to choose from based upon your needs Swanston and Janowiak 2012;
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Resistance Resilience Transition
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Adaptation Strategies
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions 2: Reduce the impact of existing biological stressors 3: Protect forests from severe fire and wind disturbance 4: Maintain or create refugia 5: Maintain and enhance species and structural diversity 6: Increase ecosystem redundancy across the landscape 7: Promote landscape connectivity 8: Enhance genetic diversity 9: Facilitate community adjustments through species
transitions 10: Plan for and respond to disturbance
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
More detailed adaptation actions that can be applied
to a single forest type or ecosystem
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Prescriptive actions designed for specific site conditions and
management objectives
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Resistance (forestall change)
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Sustain fundamental ecological functions
CONCEPT
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Maintain or restore hydrology
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
ACTION
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
Harvest in winter on frozen/snow-covered ground to minimize
disturbance
Activity #2
Developing Adaptation Actions for Forests
Least Projected
Change
Most Projected
Change
Activity #2
CSIRO (B1) CSIRO (A1B) HAD (A1B) MIROC (A1B) MIROC (A2)
In this activity you will use your silvicultural expertise to illustrate how climate change and uncertainty may affect stand-level management for specific ecosystems or forest types
Activity #2
As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in 1) Create and describe a hypothetical management situation
– Conditions: Location, site conditions, species composition, stand structure, disturbance history and susceptibility, etc.
– Typical management: Management goals and objectives, common practices
1
2
34
5
Activity #2
As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in
2) Identify important climate change considerations – Anticipated effects on various
forest components – Characteristics that
increase/reduce vulnerability
3) Identify challenges or opportunities for meeting management goals under climate change
1
2
34
5
Maps/data for this section courtesy of R. Neilson and MAPSS Vegetation Modeling Lab
To help think about climate change in your region
Precipitation change (summer and winter)
Temperature change (summer and winter)
Activity #2
Activity #2
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?
1
2
34
5
Activity #2
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet
management goals?
Where are you working and what are your forest management goals?
Forest:
Location and conditions:
Current management:
What climate change impacts create challenges or opportunities for meeting these goals?
What actions would you recommend to enhance the ability of forests to adapt?
Adaptation Tactics:
1)
2)
3)
Swanston and Janowiak 2012: www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543, Janowiak et al. 2014
Identifying Adaptation Tactics 1. DEFINE area of
interest, management objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness
of implemented actions.
