People to jobs, jobs to people

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  • people to jobs, jobs to peopleglobal mobility and labor migrationBelgium

    RandstadBelgium16/8/2017

  • finding the sweet spot for collective action on global mobility and labor migration

    People to jobs, jobs to people 2

    available talent

    economicinterest

    resources political will

    collectiveaction on

    talent mobility

  • 240+ million migrants worldwidemain migration corridors

    People to jobs, jobs to people 3

    all skills in neighboring states

    European Union

    former Soviet Union

    low and medium skilled

    latin America > north America

    Africa and Middle East > western Europe

    southern Asia > Gulf states

    southeastern Asia > Australia

    high skilled

    southern and eastern Asia > north America, Australia and United Kingdom

  • global mobility and labor migration

    the need for global mobility and labor migration

    demographic challenge

    skill shortages

    global skills mismatch

    Randstad-IZA study people to jobs, jobs to people

    what moves talent?

    projecting developments in labor supply and demand

    jobs to people? assessing firm location choice behaviour

    key messages

    conclusions

    People to jobs, jobs to people 4

  • demographic challengeaging populations and workforce losses

    People to jobs, jobs to people 5

    change in population 2015-2030 by age group (in millions)

    baseline (medium) variant zero-migration variant

    -27

    -24

    -21

    -18

    -15

    -12

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    18

    21

    24

    27

    0-14 15-64 65+

    United States

    -9

    -8

    -7

    -6

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    0-14 15-64 65+

    Germany

    -9

    -8

    -7

    -6

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    0-14 15-64 65+

    Japan

    -0.8

    -0.7

    -0.6

    -0.5

    -0.4

    -0.3

    -0.2

    -0.1

    0.0

    0.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    0-14 15-64 65+

    Belgium

  • employment trendsin Belgium the number of low skilled jobs is rapidly diminishing while high skilled jobs are increasing fast

    People to jobs, jobs to people 6

    Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply

    0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

    Qualifications______________________________

    Low

    Medium

    High

    Broad sectors______________________________

    Primary sector & utilities

    Manufacturing

    Construction

    Distribution & transport

    Business & other services

    Non-marketed services

    Occupations______________________________

    Legislators, senior officials and managers

    Professionals

    Technicians and associate professionals

    Clerks

    Service workers and shop and market sales workers

    Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

    Craft and related trades workers

    Plant and machine operators and assemblers

    Elementary occupations

    employment trendsin thousands

    2005 2015 2025

  • skill shortagesin Belgium 1.1 million new high-skilled workers are needed in the coming years as a result of expansion and aging

    People to jobs, jobs to people 7

    Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply

    -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

    Qualifications______________________________

    Low

    Medium

    High

    Broad sectors______________________________

    Primary sector & utilities

    Manufacturing

    Construction

    Distribution & transport

    Business & other services

    Non-marketed services

    Occupations______________________________

    Legislators, senior officials and managers

    Professionals

    Technicians and associate professionals

    Clerks

    Service workers and shop and market sales workers

    Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

    Craft and related trades workers

    Plant and machine operators and assemblers

    Elementary occupations

    job opportunities 2013 - 2025in thousands

    expansion demand replacement demand

  • responding to skill shortagesglobal mobility and labor migration is one part of the strategy to attract and retain the skills needed in the Future of Work

    introduce strategic workforce planning

    develop a talent

    framework

    extend the talent pool &

    increase employability

    temporary & virtual

    mobility

    ease migration & foster brain circulation

    People to jobs, jobs to people 8

    Create a decent flexible labor market with variation in contracts

    Modernize social security arrangements Project talent supply and demand

    Understand what talent wants Invest in education Target the young, blue collar and/or

    migration background

    Discover women and older employees Adapt retirement policies Increase day-care opportunities to allow

    on- and off-ramping of parents

    Create life-long cross-sectoral learninginstitutions

    Build PPPs with private sector

    Facilitate free flow of remittance Mutual skill recognition Ease skilled migration policies

  • global mismatch of talentthe skills are available, but not on the right location

    9 People to jobs, jobs to people

  • people to jobs, jobs to peopleresearch on global mobility and labor migration commissioned by Randstad from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics

    contents:

    what moves talent?

    projecting developments in labor supply and demand

    jobs to people? assessing firm location choice behaviour

    key messages

    People to jobs, jobs to people 10

  • what moves talent?global high-skilled talent chooses country of destination based on high wages, use of English and low taxes

    People to jobs, jobs to people 11

    pull factors country of destination high-skilled impact

    high average wage ++

    English speaking ++

    low tax-rates +

    high unemployment benefits =

    rigid employment protection -

    union density -

    high minimum wage -

    pull factors country of destinationhigh-skilled

    impact country rankout of 35 OECD countries

    high average wage ++ 12 out of 34

    English speaking ++ 16 out of 29

    low tax-rates + 35 out of 35

    high unemployment benefits = 7 out of 35

    rigid employment protection - 22 out of 34

    union density - 5 out of 34

    high minimum wage - 7 out of 27

  • 0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Italy

    Aust

    ria

    Gre

    ece

    Germ

    any

    Fin

    land

    Port

    ugal

    Spain

    Belg

    ium

    Neth

    erlands

    Fra

    nce

    Denm

    ark

    United S

    tate

    s

    Japan

    Luxem

    bourg

    Cze

    chia

    Sw

    eden

    Norw

    ay

    Irela

    nd

    Aust

    ralia

    United K

    ingdom

    Canada

    share of high-skilled migrants in total migrant population

    what moves talent?highest shares of high-skilled migrants in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia

    People to jobs, jobs to people 12

    data 2011, source: people to jobs, jobs to people, Randstad-IZA 2017

  • 0

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    Colo

    mbia

    Ukra

    ine

    Italy

    Maro

    cco

    Iran

    Pakis

    tan

    Rom

    ania

    United S

    tate

    s

    Canada

    Vie

    tnam

    Fra

    nce

    Russ

    ian F

    ed

    Kore

    a

    Mexic

    o

    Pola

    nd

    Germ

    any

    United K

    ingdom

    Chin

    a

    Phili

    ppin

    es

    India

    Top source countries of high-skilled migrants

    what moves talent?highest number of high-skilled migrants from Southern and Eastern Asia

    People to jobs, jobs to people 13

    data 2011, source: people to jobs, jobs to people, Randstad-IZA 2017

  • what moves talent?most labor migration is circular; less than a quarter intends to stay abroad for the rest of their life

    People to jobs, jobs to people 14

    0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

    Few weeks

    Few months

    Few years

    More years/not indef.

    Rest of life

    expected duration of stay abroad among respondentswith emigration intentions

    Source: people to jobs, jobs to people, Randstad-IZA 2017

  • -15%

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

    change in labor

    forc

    e

    change in population

    change in population and labor force 2015 to 2030

    developments in labor supply and demanddependency ratios up: the size of the labor force is predicted to increase less or decrease more strongly than the overall population

    People to jobs, jobs to people 15

    Belgium

    SwedenSwitzerland

    USA

    UK

    France

    Italy

    NetherlandsGermany

    Poland

    Spain

    dependency ratio down

    labor force growth > population growth

    Baseline scenario. Source: people to jobs, jobs to people, Randstad-IZA 2017

    dependency ratio up

    labor force growth < population growth

  • developments in labor supply and demandlosses in labor force mitigated by intensive migration and by increase of high-skilled worker