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Ian Hosking Richards &Rocket Property GroupUnderstanding Property Cycles – How to buy in tomorrow’shot markets
Understanding Property Cycles
When to buy Where to buy How to buy
The Basics1. Any populous area will experience around
3 years of strong growth in any doubling cycle
2. The remaining years of cycle = subdued3. Serious investors identify drivers of
capital growth & project forward 4. Inexperienced investors place more
emphasis on recent past performance
Long Term Growth PotentialMedian House Prices ($’000)
1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 2016
Sydney $27 $81 $188 $454 $694 $1M
Melbourne $20 $23 $126 $276 $550 $725
Brisbane $18 $56 $137 $249 $446 $521
Adelaide $16 $48 $111 $225 $398 $498
Perth $19 $49 $113 $205 $525 $568
Darwin N/A N/A $150 $211 $652 $613
Hobart $15 $43 $104 $173 $310 $345
Canberra $27 $68 $159 $294 $579 $654
Sources: BIS Shrapnel, APM, REIV, Various State VG Data, Dept. Of Housing, Domain House Price Report
Examples of Strong Growth Phases
Perth 2002 - 2005
Melbourne2007 - 2010
Sydney 2012 – 2016
The different property cycles in Australia are not typically in sync at any given time!
A Typical Property Cycle
Peak
Correction
Bottom/Opportunity
Growth
The Astute Property Investor
2002 PERTH
2005
2007 MELBOURNE
2010
2012 SYDNEY
2016?BRISBANE
What to look for
Areas that are undervalued
Population Growth
Infrastructure spendingEconomic and employment driversSupply and demand
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast
Does it have?
• Population Growth
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Employment
• Supply/Demand
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast Population Growth
The Sunshine Coast will grow by 34% and more than 97,000 people by 2026
Approx 290,000 live on the Sunshine Coast. The area is projected to grow by 8,000 new residents each year.
Need to build up to 2,300 new dwellings each year to support population growth. 1,354 building approvals granted in 2016
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast
Does it have:
• Population Growth
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Employment
• Supply/Demand
An area to look out forThe Sunshine Coast Infrastructure
Building of the new Kawana Town Centre $2bn Light rail & Caloundra CBD upgrade Sunshine Coast University Hospital . Will
be the largest health hub in the Southern Hemisphere
SunCentral – A brand new city centre has just commenced construction in Maroochydore
$450m Sunshine Coast Airport expansion & conversion into an International Airport
$350m Sunshine Plaza Upgrade
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast
Does it have:
• Population Growth
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Employment
• Supply/Demand
An area to look out forThe Sunshine Coast Economy
The Sunshine Coast economy has doubled in size in the last decade.
The economy is predicted to grow in a strong and sustainable pattern over the next 20 years to reach A$33 billion in 2033
SunCentral will give a $5.9 billion boost for the Queensland economy
Oceanside Kawana will contribute $828 million annually to the local and state economy
Currently the second highest performing regional economy in Queensland
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast
Does it have:
• Population Growth
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Employment
• Supply/Demand
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast Employment
Approx. 140,000 local residents are employed on the Sunshine Coast. 87% work in the area.
Over 40,000 new jobs being created in the area Sunshine Coast University Hospital. Around 4,700
jobs next year- Over 6,000 by 2021 Oceanside Kawana around 10,000 jobs in next 5
years The Sunshine Plaza expansion 2,900 jobs on
completion SunCentral - Expecting 30,000 jobs over 10 years Youi headquarters 1,000 jobs Airport expansion 10,000 jobs
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast
Does it have:
• Population Growth
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Employment
• Supply/Demand
An area to look out for
The Sunshine Coast Supply/Demand Sunshine Coast regional current residential
vacancy 1.5% compared with Brisbane CBD 4.3%, Gold Coast 1.8%, Sydney 1.8%
Forecasting a 5% lift in weekly rents and anticipate median dwelling values to rise by between 5% and 10%.
30% of the Sunshine Coast’s households rent.
Shortage of quality House and Land properties to meet the growth of families moving up to Sunshine Coast to embrace new employment opportunities, lifestyle and affordable dwellings.
An area to look out for
The Sunshine CoastMeets the criteria!
• Population Growth
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Employment
• Supply/Demand
If you have any more questions or would like to test your Readiness to Invest, come visit our website
Thank you
Information or advice provided may be of a general nature only and may not be applicable to your specific
circumstances.
Contact the Rocketeer Property Experts
1300 850 038
