September '11 Mid Cities Report

Altos Research – September 21, 2011

Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research -1-

Altos Research Mid-Cities Report Real-Time Housing Market Update

September, 2011

“Dr Ray Stantz: My parents left me that house. I was born there.”

“Dr. Peter Venkman: You're not gonna lose the house, everybody has three

mortgages nowadays.” -Ghostbusters

Three mortgages would have been extreme, even in the boom days of

the 2000s. Nonetheless, over-leveraged real estate had a profound effect

on today’s housing market. We’re not out of the woods yet and the

market trends tell us we’re settling in for a long, cold winter.

Welcome to the fourth installment of the Altos Research Mid-Cities

Report. The Mid-Cities Report provides a glimpse into real estate market

trends for mid-sized US markets not commonly reported in the media.

This month prices decreased in 13 of the 20 markets, and inventory

decreased in 19 of the 20 markets. The market trends indicate a further

cooling of the market as we approach the fall.

Our Altos 20-City Composite National Report confirmed the loss of

momentum from summer market activity earlier this month. Transaction

statistics published by S&P/Case-Shiller will show the same loss of

momentum in a few months.

The 90-day prices were flattening last month and the declining curve is

becoming more pronounced. Figure 1 illustrates the price trend for the

past twelve months. The 90-day inventory flattened last month and has

also started to decline, as illustrated in Figure 2.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000101/

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000195/



Figure 1: Prices in the Mid-Cities Composite flattened last month and are currently trending downward. The Altos 20-City Composite is reporting similar market

behavior, which indicates a cooling of the housing market.

Figure 2: Inventory has gone from flattening to declining as the market cools. The

annual high point was the result of the inventory increase in the summer of 2010,

with the inventory increase in 2011 being much smaller from the seasonal low

point.

Key takeaways from the markets covered in this report:

The median price was $255,093 in mid-September, down from

$256,021 in mid-August (-0.36%). For comparison, the Altos 20-

City composite median price was down to $447,679 in August

from $450,176 in July.

The leaders in the three-month price increases are Durham

(5.69%), Boulder (4.40%), and Reno (2.93%).

Durham had the largest one-month increase in median price, with

a 1.68% increase to $280,313.



Eleven markets had decreasing prices at the three-month level.

The three largest decreases were Naples (-3.15%), Pittsburgh (-

2.76%), and Charleston (-1.20%).

The largest one-month decrease in inventory was Naples, with a

6.93% decrease.

The largest one month increase in inventory was Boulder, with a

1.57% increase. Boulder was one of two composite markets that

didn’t experience a decrease in inventory last month.

Trends: September Home Prices

The mid-cities composite experienced a decrease in median prices

through mid-September. The biggest decreases were in Pittsburgh (-

1.68%), Naples (-1.22%), and Charleston (-0.65%). The price gain over a

three-month period was in Durham, with a 5.69% increase.

Altos Research Price Composite

MSA July '11 August '11

Sept ‘11 % Change

From Last

Month

% Change

Over Three

Months

Mid-Cities Composite

$256,228 $256,021 $255,093 -0.36% -0.44%

Albuquerque $231,765 $232,005 $231,992 -0.01% 0.10%

Austin $284,955 $284,874 $285,186 0.11% 0.08%

Baltimore $367,630 $367,707 $366,453 -0.34% -0.32%

Boise $167,367 $169,089 $169,018 -0.04% 0.99%

Boulder $420,724 $434,329 $439,219 1.13% 4.40%

Charleston $340,828 $338,950 $336,743 -0.65% -1.20%

Dover $215,953 $214,450 $213,706 -0.35% -1.04%

Durham $265,215 $275,681 $280,313 1.68% 5.69%




Sept ‘11 % Change

From Last

Month

% Change

Over Three

Months

Honolulu $751,336 $751,459 $752,703 0.17% 0.18%

Jacksonville $221,467 $221,792 $221,029 -0.34% -0.20%

Memphis $166,651 $166,754 $166,588 -0.10% -0.04%

Naples $547,480 $536,770 $530,243 -1.22% -3.15%

Nashville $236,883 $235,975 $234,956 -0.43% -0.81%

Orlando $228,524 $229,722 $231,203 0.64% 1.17%

Pittsburgh $163,882 $162,079 $159,364 -1.68% -2.76%

Reno $235,783 $239,095 $242,699 1.51% 2.93%

Sacramento $244,175 $246,263 $247,659 0.57% 1.43%

San Antonio $219,994 $220,090 $219,941 -0.07% -0.02%

St. Louis $184,177 $183,819 $182,637 -0.64% -0.84%

Ventura County

$555,371 $556,548 $554,155 -0.43% -0.22%

Trends: Housing Supply The inventory in the mid-cities composite was down this month, with 18 of

20 markets showing decreased inventory. Last month, there was a

1.79% decrease in inventory. Over a three-month period, inventory has

decreased 2.08%.

The Altos national composite also showed decreased inventory over one-

month and three-month time periods. Inventory decreased 0.55% over

one-month and 0.71% over three-months.




Sept ‘11 % Change

From Last

Month

% Change

Over Three

Months

Mid-Cities Composite

159,037 158,555 155,725 -1.79% -2.08%

Albuquerque 5173 5198 5179 -0.35% 0.12%

Austin 11059 11059 10673 -3.50% -3.49%

Baltimore 10999 11055 10871 -1.67% -1.16%

Boise 4354 4272 4163 -2.54% -4.37%

Boulder 689 708 719 1.57% 4.35%

Charleston 6672 6745 6726 -0.28% 0.82%

Dover 1275 1270 1261 -0.72% -1.09%

Durham 3769 3574 3368 -5.77% -10.65%

Honolulu 1760 1800 1800 0.00% 2.29%

Jacksonville 10312 10143 9978 -1.63% -3.24%

Memphis 8725 8659 8490 -1.95% -2.69%

Naples 5125 4870 4533 -6.93% -11.56%

Nashville 13596 13600 13375 -1.65% -1.63%

Orlando 10622 10359 10072 -2.78% -5.19%

Pittsburgh 12781 12836 12716 -0.94% -0.51%

Reno 3488 3545 3541 -0.09% 1.52%

Sacramento 12082 12159 12091 -0.56% 0.08%

San Antonio 12277 12316 12102 -1.74% -1.42%

St. Louis 20959 21073 20799 -1.30% -0.76%

Ventura County

3321 3314 3269 -1.35% -1.57%



Methodology

The Altos Research Mid-Cities Housing Report gives you unfettered, up-

to-the-minute data relative to housing market conditions in mid-sized

markets around the nation. The Altos report is comprised of data that can

be used now, not aging, months-old statistics that mean nothing in a

market that's in a constant state of flux. Altos Research uses metrics

associated with active residential property listings to give you real-time

information. We give you the market as it is, not as it was.

Each "market" measured is equivalent to the Census Bureau's

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) dominated by the city listed.

Properties analyzed in the data include repeat sales of single-family

homes, but not condominiums, town homes, or new construction homes.

The Altos Mid-Cities Composite is based on single family homes in

Albuquerque, Austin, Baltimore, Boise, Boulder, Charleston, Dover,

Durham, Jacksonville, Honolulu, Memphis, Naples, Nashville, Orlando,

Pittsburgh, Reno, Sacramento, St. Louis, San Antonio, and Ventura

County, CA. For more information, check out www.altosresearch.com.

About Altos Research

Altos Research, LLC is at the forefront of real-time real estate market

research. Founded in 2005, Altos' pioneering technologies and

information products serve investors, derivatives traders, as well as

thousands of real estate professionals. The company publishes statistical

reports and data analyses each week for over 20,000 zip codes in more

than 200 metro markets around the county, including the 20 S&P/Case-

Shiller markets.

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Real Estate

September '11 Mid Cities Report