Upload
lacy-williams
View
605
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Keep up-to-date- on the real estate market in Richmond, VA. Lacy Williams, REALTOR in Richmond presents data to show what's really going on in the real estate market.
Citation preview
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
1 1
The Greater Richmond Real
Estate Market Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
June 2013
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
2 2
Background
• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in June 2013 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
3 3
The National Market
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
4 4
January 2012 – December 2012
January 2011 – December 2011 80
90
100
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
100 = Historically Healthy Level
National Pending Home Sales
NAR 4/2013
The number of sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010. You can see that the past year in dark
green has been significantly higher than the previous two years shown in lighter green.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
5 5
National New Home SALES
Compared to
December 2012
Compared to
January 2012
January 2013 Sales
+15.6%
+28.9%
Census 3/1/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
New home construction is up
significantly.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
6 6
Nationwide Month’s Inventory of
Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
NAR 4/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
As the number of sales has gone up, the inventory of available houses for sale has been dropping. The national market is
below a 6 month inventory which is considered to be a normal market. Nationwide, we have a shortage of inventory as we
do in parts of the Greater Richmond area.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
7 7 Calculated Risk 2/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
The inventory in 2012 was the lowest it has been at any time since 2001. Even the boom years of 2005-2007 had higher
inventory than today.
National Number of Homes for Sale
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
8 8
1st Quarter 2012
2nd Quarter 2012
3rd Quarter 2012
4th Quarter 2012
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
9 9 FHFA 2/2013
FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year)
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
Year over Year change in home prices show that prices in Virginia were up 4.4% in 2012 over 2011 prices.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
10 10
-3.9%-3.5%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.5%
0.6%1.1%
2.0%
3.6%4.3%
5.5%
6.8%
8.1%
9.3%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013
Case-Shiller National Home Price Indices
This graph shows year over year changes in home prices
by month. January 2012 prices were 3.9% lower than
January 2011 prices. By February of 2013, prices were
9.3% higher than the previous year.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
2012
2013
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
11 11
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Atlanta 16.5%
Boston 5.2%
Charlotte 6.2%
Chicago 5.1%
Cleveland 5.3%
Dallas 7.1%
Denver 9.9%
Detroit 15.2%
Las Vegas 17.6%
Los Angeles 14.1%
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Miami 10.4%
Minneapolis 12%
New York 1.9%
Phoenix 23%
Portland 9.4%
San Diego 10.2%
San Francisco 18.9%
Seattle 9.3%
Tampa 10%
Washington 6.9%
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Year over year prices are up in all 20 of the US major markets!!!
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
12 12
U. S. Negative Equity Decreasing
Negative Equity Loan Count (millions of mortgages – left axis) Negative Equity Share (percentage– right axis)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Fannie Mae 4/2013
Negative equity occurs when the homeowner owes more on the house than the house is worth. Negative equity can cause
foreclosures and short sales. As you can see, negative equity has decreased dramatically.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
13 13
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
U. S. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
21%
NAR 4/2013
Distressed properties include Short Sales and Foreclosures. The percentage of Distressed Property sales has dropped
significantly. Foreclosures and short sales tend to drag down prices so this reduction has a positive impact on prices.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
14 14
USA Foreclosure Inventory
RealtyTrac 4/2013
Overall, national foreclosure inventory has declined but the following slides will show that some states are doing better than
others.
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
15 15
USA Foreclosure Inventory Non-Judicial
RealtyTrac 4/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
In non-judicial states such as Virginia, you do not have to go through the court system to do a foreclosures so foreclosures
have happened quickly and these states have been working through their foreclosure inventory and there has been a
significant decline in the number of active foreclosures.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
16 16
USA Foreclosure Inventory Judicial
RealtyTrac 4/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
In judicial states such as New Jersey, you have to go through the court system to do a foreclosures so foreclosures have
been backed up in the courts for years and these states have large inventories of foreclosure properties and it will take
several more years to work through this inventory.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
17 17
Foreclosure Inventory by State
Percentage of mortgages that have been
placed in the process of foreclosure. CoreLogic Foreclosure Report 3/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
As shown above, Virginia has a low inventory of homes in foreclosures because it is a non-judicial state and has already
worked through most of the foreclosures.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
18 18
Impact of Increasing Rates
Price Rate P&I
200,000 3.4 886.96
200,000 4.4 1,001.52
Monthly Savings $114.56
Source: Keeping Current Matters 3/13
The interest rate has already jumped up from 3.5% to 4% and it is expected to rise even more this year. This graph shows
the impact of the interest rate on the cost of a house.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
19 19
What are the Experts Saying?
“Americans are as bullish on the housing market as they have been at any time since before the housing bubble burst several years ago. This surely reflects the stabilization of the housing market, and the fact that home prices are generally heading up in most parts of the country.” “Gallup data on homeownership provide strong support for the idea that the American Dream of owning a home continues to be alive and well. The majority of Americans who own a home plan on continuing to do so in the future, and most of those who don't own a home plan on buying one.” (Gallup.com) “If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) anticipates, the economic recovery continues at a moderate pace, with unemployment slowly declining and inflation expectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-term interest rates would be expected to rise gradually toward more normal levels over the next several years… (Ben Bernanke of Federal Reserve on interest rates).
“It’s quite possible that the next decade might bear a resemblance to the 1960s or ’70s...Homeowners did very well if they bought in 1960 or 1970, locked in low fixed-rate mortgages and saw the nominal values of their homes soar while their real mortgage balances declined. This could be an auspicious time to buy a house…for people who aren’t out to bet on the housing or mortgage markets but are instead focused on settling into a home for the long term.” (NY Times)
Source: Keeping Current Matters 5/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
20 20
Greater Richmond
Housing Market
Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central
Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
21 21
Market Indicator #1:
The Number of Sales is
Up!!!
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
22 22
Greater Richmond Single Family Closed Sales
1273715262 15533 16450 15074
126449482 9069 8574 9051 10177
4089
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thr
u 6/3)
Year
No
of
Clo
sed
Sale
sNumber of Single Family House Sales by Year
The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half
of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than
2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
23 23
Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter
The second quarter graphs shows
that 2012 sales were up significantly
from 2011. The second quarter of
2010 was when the homebuyers tax
credit expired so sales were
artificially high during this time.
Source: CVRMLS Data 6/5/13
The first Quarter of 2013 is 7% higher than
2012 and 26% higher than 2010.
Sales in the first quarter were higher than
the past 5 years.
Single Family Sales By Year in First Quarter
31612892
2088
1487 16121786 1903 2036
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
No
of
Clo
sed
Fir
st
Qu
art
er
Sale
s
Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter
Sales
4567
3919
29102533
30132657
3069
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Sale
s
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
24 24
Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales
by Year
4111
3421
2526 2692
19992496
2772
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Clo
sed
Sale
s
Third and Fourth Quarter Sales
2012 is 11% higher than 2011.
Source: CVRMLS Data
Sales in the third quarter of 2012
were higher than sales for the
past 4 years!! 2012 fourth
quarter sales are 10.6%
higher than 2011 fourth
quarter sales. Note that 2009
had a tax credit during the
fourth quarter.
Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in
Fourth Quarter by Year
3222
2362
1707
2357
18472123
2347
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Sale
s
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
25 25
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales
17612035
1757
13821154 1093 1201
1420
587
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Thru
6/4/13)
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nd
om
iniu
m
Sale
s
Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10%
higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!!
Source: CVRMLS data 6/4/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
26 26
Greater Richmond Second Quarter Condominium
Sales by Year
601529
420324
431344 389
0
200
400
600
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
No
of
Clo
sed
Co
nd
om
iniu
m
Sale
s
Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter
The first quarter of 2013 had more
sales than the first quarter of the
previous 4 years. The second quarter
of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or
2009 second quarters. There was a
tax credit which ended in the second
quarter of 2010 so sales were
artificially stimulated.
Source: CVRMLS data
2013 first quarter sales were 4% higher than
2012 sales and 52% higher than 2012 sales..
2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales.
Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
Sales by Year
428376
310
190 189242
275 287
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
No
of
Fir
st
Qu
art
er
Sale
s
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
27 27
Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12
Source: CVRMLS data
Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium
Sales by Year
578499
355 345
219
325393
0
200
400
600
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Sale
s
Third quarter sales in 2012 were
higher than third quarter sales of the
previous 4 years!!. The fourth quarter
of 2012 had 18% more sales than the
fourth quarter of 2011.
2012 sales were 21% higher than 2011 sales.
2011 sales were 27% higher than 2010 sales.
Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters
Greater Richmond Condominium and
Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter
424
339
233288
225
287338
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Fo
urt
h Q
uart
er
Sale
s
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
28 28
Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales
In the Condominium market,
Year over Year number of sales
by price point have increased in
all price points with dramatic
increases in the higher price
points..
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
In the single family market,
Year over Year number of
sales by price point have
increased in all price points
Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater
Richmond
Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change
$0-$250,000 6564 6776 3.23%
$250,001-$500,000 2438 2938 20.51%
$500,001-$750,000 417 515 23.50%
$750,001-$1,000,000 88 116 31.82%
$1,000,001+ 34 46 35.29%
Number of Condominium Sales in Greater
Richmond
Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change
$0-$250,000 983 1057 7.53%
$250,001-$500,000 293 350 19.45%
$500,001+ 19 56 194.74%
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
29 29
Market Indicator #2:
Inventory is Down!!!
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
30 30
Months Market Pricing
1-4 Sellers Appreciation
5-6 Even The Norm
7+ Buyers Depreciation
Months Supply’s Impact on Price
Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10
As shown on the graph, the amount of inventory determines if it is a Sellers or a Buyers market. In most
areas of Richmond, we are now in a Buyer’s market.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
31 31
Inventory of Single Family Houses By Month
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Inv
en
tory
of
Ho
us
es
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond
The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year.
After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has
continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. We are following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. In May 2010, there were
7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4045. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory.
Source: CVRMLS data
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
32 32
Single Family Inventory by Price Range
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up
to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still
challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is
increasing.
Price Range
Inventory
(Months)
$0-$250,000 4.2
$250,001-$500,000 4.9
$500,001-$750,000 8.9
$750,001-$1,000,000 12.7
$1,000,001+ 21.5
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
33 33
Inventory By County/City
4.63.6
4.9
8.3
4.2
8.0
4.7
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.0C
ity o
f
Ric
hm
on
d
Hen
rico
Han
over
Go
och
lan
d
Ch
este
rfie
ld
Po
wh
ata
n
All
Ric
hm
on
d
County
Inven
tory
Single Family Inventory by County
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield are indicative of a
normal market or even a Seller’s market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and
fewer sales and are still Buyer’s markets..
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
34 34
Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by Year
and Month in Greater Richmond
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan
Feb Mar A
pr
May Ju
nJu
lAug
Sep O
ctNov
Dec
Month
Mo
nth
s o
f In
ven
tory
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inventory of Condominiums
The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of
2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater
Richmond and today there are 487.. The inventory in June 2013 is more than 7 months less than in December of 2010.
Source: CVRMLS data
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
35 35
Market Indicator #3:
Prices have bottomed out
and are rising!!!
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
36 36
Average Sales Price By Month
$150,000$170,000
$190,000$210,000$230,000
$250,000$270,000$290,000
$310,000$330,000
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Month
Av
era
ge
Sa
les
Pri
ce
Single Family Average Sales Price By Month
The average sales price in Greater Richmond is rising. Note that the spring peak in prices in 2012 was higher than 2011
and the low points during the winter are also higher. We have not yet hit the spring peak of 2013.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
37 37
Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed
House Sales in Greater Richmond
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Month
Pri
ce P
er
Sq
uare
Fo
ot
Fo
r
Clo
sed
Sale
s
Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Month
Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2013 is already higher
than in 2012 year and the winter low did not occur in 2013..
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
38 38
Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot
For Closed House Sales By Year
$92.37$99.65
$107.60
$123.38
$135.82$139.64$132.43
$117.82$112.24
$104.98$106.16$110.17
$80$90
$100$110
$120$130$140$150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
6/3
)
Year
Pri
ce
Pe
r S
qu
are
Fo
ot
Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond
Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2013 prices being approximately 3.8% higher than 2012 prices. With
a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line
on this graph.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
39 39
Single Family Year over Year Price Change
Year over year price change shows that as 2012 and 2013 prices increasing after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the
7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2013, prices are up 3.8%.
Source: CVRMLS data 4/3/13
Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From
Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond
7.9% 8.0%
14.7%
10.1%
2.8%
-5.2%
-11.0%
-4.7%-6.5%
1.1%3.8%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Thru
6/3)
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
40 40
Greater Richmond Single Family
Price Per Square Foot by Quarter
$75.00
$85.00
$95.00
$105.00
$115.00
$125.00
$135.00
$145.00
2007-0
1
2007-0
2
2007-0
3
2007-0
4
2008-0
1
2008-0
2
2008-0
3
2008-0
4
2009-0
1
2009-0
2
2009-0
3
2009-0
4
2010-0
1
2010-0
2
2010-0
3
2010-0
4
2011-0
1
2011-0
2
2011-0
3
2011-0
4
2012-0
1
2012-0
2
2012-0
3
2012-0
4
2013-0
1
Quarter
Pri
ce p
er
Sq
uare
Fo
ot
40
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter
First Quarter
Sales
Second Quarter
Sales
Fourth Quarter
Sales Third Quarter
Sales
Source: CVRMLS data
When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2013 is
higher than the previous two years. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011. The
third quarter is in blue and 2012 third quarter 2012 prices are higher than 2011 third quarter prices. The fourth quarter is in green and 2012
fourth quarter prices are significantly higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
The turn in the market!!!
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
41 41
Change in Prices Between 2011 and 2012
6.54%
1.85%0.75%
2.29%
-0.10%
-6.70%-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
City
of Ric
hm
ond
Hen
rico
Han
over
Gooc
hlan
d
Che
ster
field
Pow
hata
n
2011 vs 2012 Prices By County
Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield was slightly down and
Powhatan still has some challenges.
Source: CVRMLS data 1/13/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
42 42
Monthly Change in Prices
Change in Price Per Square Foot in Greater Richmond
from Previous Year-5
.79
%
4.7
4%
-2.8
1%
-2.2
4%
1.1
6%
3.7
1%
1.6
4%
1.1
6%
3.0
8%
10
.46
%
6.2
1%
2.7
3%
8.7
4%
7.8
8%
8.3
3%
13
.42
%
9.5
1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan
11-J
an
12
Feb
11-F
eb
12
Mar
11-M
ar
12
Ap
r 11-A
pr
12
May 1
1-M
ay 1
2
Ju
n 1
1-J
un
12
Ju
l 11-J
ul 12
Au
g 1
1-A
ug
12
Sep
11-S
ep
12
Oct
11-O
ct
12
No
v 1
1-N
ov 1
2
Dec 1
1-D
ec 1
2
Jan
12-J
an
13
Feb
12-F
eb
13
Mar
12-M
ar
13
Ap
ril 12-
Ap
ril 13
May 1
2-M
ay 1
3
Month of Comparison
Ch
an
ge in
Pri
ce P
er
Sq
uare
Fo
ot
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
This graph shows the change in price per square foot from one month to the same month a year later. For example on the
right of the graph, May of 2013 price per square foot was 9.51% higher than in May of 2012. There are a normal monthly
fluctuation but the trend in prices is significantly up.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
43 43
Condominium Price Per Square Foot
Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past
year.
Source: CVRMLS data 4/3/13
Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium
Sales in Greater Richmond
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
Jan
-06
Ju
l-06
Jan
-07
Ju
l-07
Jan
-08
Ju
l-08
Jan
-09
Ju
l-09
Jan
-10
Ju
l-10
Jan
-11
Ju
l-11
Jan
-12
Ju
l-12
Jan
-13
Month
Pri
ce
Pe
r S
qu
are
Fo
ot
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
44 44
Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By
Year
$90.84$100.03
$113.32
$133.49
$149.49$154.00$152.70
$135.62$131.55$119.16$121.13$126.36
$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140$150$160
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
6/4
/13)
Year
Pri
ce
pe
r S
qu
are
Fo
ot
Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year
The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices
in 2013 are 4.3% higher than 2012. Prices are expected to continue rising for 2013 and 2014. There was a 23%
decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.
Source: CVRMLS data `6/4/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
45 45
Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range
In the single family market, prices have increased in
all price points.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/4/13
In the condominium market, price per square foot is
increasing in the lower and middle price point.
Single Family Condominium/Townhouse
Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond
Price Range 6/11-5/12 6/12-5/13 Change
$0-$250,000 $85.71 $89.25 4.13%
$250,001-$500,000 $121.30 $124.49 2.63%
$500,001-$750,000 $151.64 $152.87 0.81%
$750,001-
$1,000,000 $178.80 $181.48 1.50%
$1,000,001+ $221.90 $235.22 6.00%
Condominium Price per Square Foot Change
in Greater Richmond
Price Range
6/11-
5/12
6/12-
5/13
Chang
e
$0-$250,000 $106.39 $111.75 5.04%
$250,001-
$500,000 $148.32 $152.98 3.14%
$500,001+ $190.33 $186.46 -2.03%
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
46 46
Richmond Real Estate Areas
The Richmond Association of
Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
as shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60,
62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
47 47
Active Listings By Area (As of 6/3/13)
211
80
263
186124 108
198237 220 197 224
156
437
510
189
348
155202
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
Area
Nu
mb
er
of
Acti
ve S
ing
le
Fam
ily L
isti
ng
s
Active Single Family Listings By Area
The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are
approximately 3560 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of
declining inventory. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20
having the lowest.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
48 48
Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House
Sales (6/1/12-5/31/13)
$2
39
,84
7
$4
49
,54
1
$3
12
,10
2
$4
14
,06
8
$1
37
,28
1
$1
46
,40
0 $3
32
,00
0
$2
75
,66
7
$1
43
,18
0
$1
07
,80
2
$2
24
,76
9
$5
9,5
34
$1
64
,53
1
$2
11
,46
6
$1
96
,84
2
$2
39
,19
5
$3
48
,57
8
$2
58
,89
7
$2
35
,85
8
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
All
Ric
hmond
Area
Avera
ge S
ale
s P
rice
Single Family Average Sales Price By Area
Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50
having the lowest.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
49 49
Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House
Closed Sales By Area (6/1/12-5/31/13)
$1
15
.10 $1
81
.27
$1
25
.93
$1
31
.37
$7
5.6
6
$9
2.4
8
$1
21
.21
$1
14
.28
$8
2.3
0
$6
6.9
5
$1
09
.25
$4
2.5
0
$8
3.3
1
$9
3.5
4
$1
00
.19
$1
00
.53
$1
12
.86
$1
09
.99
$1
01
.93
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
All R
ich
mon
d
Area
Pri
ce
Pe
r S
qu
are
Fo
ot
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area
Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest
price per square foot. The average across greater Richmond is $101.93.
Source: CVRMLS data 6/3/13
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
50 50
Supply of Houses by Area in Months
4.5
2.9 3.0
9.9
4.43.3 2.9
5.96.6 6.5
4.6
7.7
6.04.9 5.0
3.33.9
8.2
4.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
All
Ric
hm
ond
Area
Mo
nth
s o
f S
up
ply
Inventory of Single Family Houses
As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have
the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and
Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses at 9.9 and 8.2 months. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it has
a higher inventory at 7.7 months.
Source: CVRMLS data 1/30/13
Red Line represents a normal market.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
51 51
Summary
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
52 52
Existing Home Sales
12,109 US Homes Sell Every Day
and 8,718 Buyers Receive a Mortgage
NAR 12/2011
In spite of the recent
downturn, home
ownership
continues to be the
best long-term
investment in the
US!!!
Source: Keeping Current Matters
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
53 53
Summary
• Sales are up
• Inventory is down
• Prices have started to rise in most
areas.
• This is the chance of a lifetime to
BUY!!!