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Loudoun Housing Fulton Report for the end of2008
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Prepared by Senior Consultant, Rosemary deButts (MIRM)
December 2008 Data
Housing Market AnalysisLoudoun County
FULTON RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, INC.
11350 Random Hills RoadSuite 330Fairfax, VA 22030 540.338.2212 Direct1.703.673.9950 Fax www.fultonresearch.com
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07 Dec 08 vs Nov 08 vs Dec 07
Loudoun 407 20% 9% 5.3 ‐11% ‐38% $315,000 4% ‐23% 101 7% ‐3%Aldie 20105 20 82% 82% 4.5 ‐48% ‐61% $505,699 5% 37% 105 192% 94%Middleburg 20117 2 ‐33% ‐50% 30.0 48% 122% $839,950 2% 125% 363 125% 25%Purcellville 20132 11 22% ‐35% 12.0 ‐22% 19% $458,455 37% 0% 163 44% 9%Round Hill 20141 7 ‐22% 75% 10.1 14% ‐49% $310,000 ‐3% ‐50% 273 207% 221%Ashburn 20147 51 31% 2% 4.6 ‐16% ‐43% $362,160 7% ‐3% 79 ‐8% ‐16%Ashburn 20148 28 180% ‐36% 6.0 ‐61% 31% $524,991 13% 8% 62 19% 15%Chantilly 20152 28 22% ‐10% 5.4 ‐5% ‐18% $463,924 5% ‐18% 61 ‐9% ‐26%Hamilton 20158 10 233% 400% 2.9 ‐78% ‐90% $833,470 30% 78% 198 ‐11% 106%Sterling 20164 84 29% 87% 3.9 2% ‐68% $208,062 8% ‐30% 84 ‐7% ‐33%Sterling 20165 34 21% 17% 3.9 ‐6% ‐51% $388,147 26% ‐3% 112 13% 6%Dulles 20166 13 18% 86% 4.7 17% ‐54% $376,090 34% 13% 58 ‐27% ‐49%Leesburg 20175 40 43% 43% 5.5 ‐29% ‐46% $390,188 26% ‐16% 113 9% ‐8%Lucketts 20176 75 53% 63% 5.2 ‐32% ‐59% $415,736 51% 9% 110 ‐6% ‐11%Lovettsville 20180 2 ‐67% ‐60% 34.0 219% 62% $519,450 25% 22% 340 204% 110%Waterford 20197 2 0% 0% 21.5 ‐4% 16% $722,350 416% ‐11% 58 ‐79% 81%Source: MRIS Black font indicates an improvement; red font indicates a loss
Twelve Month Trend (as shown by blue lines on the following pages); positive indicators shown in dark blue typeTotal Sales UP Increased 20% from November after five consecutive months of declinesDetached Sales Down December's 188 sales of detached units was 15.3% less than the 2008 averageAttached Sales UP Sales of attached units exceeded sales of detached units for the last three consecutive monthsCondo Sales Flat Averaging 22 units per month in 2008 compared to 27 in 2007 (‐18.5%)Median Sales Price Down December's median was $59,950 below the 12‐month high in February 2008Avg Close Price: Detached Down Decreased in December by $81,846 (‐14.4%) since the high in January 2008
Avg Close Price: Attached Down Decreased in December by $85,899 (‐25.1%) since the high in January 2008Avg Close Price: Condo Flat The December average was 24.5% below the high recorded in October (‐$64,994)Close Price to List Price % UP Exceeded 90% nine of twelve months in 2008Supply of Inventory (MSI) DOWN Less than six months for the last seven consecutive months; the 2007 average was 8.3 monthsDays on Market DOWN The year‐end average was 4.9% less than the 2007 averageShort Sales, Foreclosure Solds Up Jumped 40.3% in December from NovemberShort Sales, Foreclosure Listings Up Jumped 35% in December from November
Executive Summary
Sales Month's Supply Inventory Median Sales Price Average DOMPZip Code
Page 2 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Analysis
Notes concerning the data in this analysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7. As of December 31, 2008, an analysis of the foreclosures and short sales by subdivision was added.
As of December 31, 2008, listings includes the "active", "contingency/kick out", "contingency/no kickout", and "app reg" statuses. Listings excludes the "contract", "expired" and "withdrawn" statuses.
As of October 31, 2008, zip code 20184 (Upperville) is included in 20117 (Middleburg); 20135 (Bluemont) is included in 20141 (Round Hill); 20129 (Paeonian Springs) is included in 20197 (Waterford); and 22066 (Great Falls) is included in 20165 (Sterling).
As of October 31, 2008, list price refers to "original list price".
House types excluded from this analysis include "bed & breakfast", "mobile", "other", "garage/park space", "house of worship", "dwelling w/rental", "double wide", "vacation home", or "vacation rental".
Year‐to‐Date price stratification analysis added November 30, 2008.
Sales and listings with foreclosure/short sale designations as a percentage of total sales and total listings analysis added November 30, 2008.
Page 3 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices
Page 4 of 15
Year
Units % Change $ % Change2000 5,019 $209,000
Loudoun County Existing Home Sales/Median Sales Prices2000/2008
Total Sales Median Sales Price
, $ ,2001 6,179 23.1% $237,500 13.6%2002 6,735 9.0% $269,000 13.3%2003 8,255 22.6% $309,900 15.2%2004 9,381 13.6% $390,000 25.8%2005 9,123 ‐2.8% $485,000 24.4%2006 5,919 ‐35.1% $484,900 0.0%, $ ,2007 5,127 ‐13.4% $439,560 ‐9.4%2008 5,380 4.9% $346,500 ‐21.2%
Source: MRIS
Loudoun County Existing Home Sales and Median Sales Prices: 2000 ‐ 2008
$485,000 $484,9008,255
9,3819,123
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
8 000
9,000
10,000
MSP
Sales
$
$390,000
$439,560
$346,5005,019
6,179
6,735
5,919 $350,000
$400,000
$450,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
edia
n Sa
les
Pric
e
otal Ann
ual Sales
$209,000
$237,500
$269,000
$309,900,
5,127 5,380
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Me
To
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Page 4 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Page 5 of 15
Close Price 2007 2008
< $200K 83 759
YTD Existing Home Sales Price Stratification
1,3231,3001,400
< $200K 83 759
$200s 553 1,300
$300s 1,323 1,227
$400s 1,142 737
$500s 719 590
$600s 551 339
1,142
1,227
1,000
1,200
es 2007$600s 551 339
$700s 324 193
$800s 177 103
$900s 75 56
$1Ms 156 66
$
553
719
551
324
759 737
590
339400
600
800
Total YTD
Sale
2008
> $2M 24 10
Total 5,127 5,380
2007 vs. 2008 Variance
< $200K 814.5%
83
324
177
75156
24
339
193
10356 66
100
200
400
$200K $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1M $2M$200s 135.1%
$300s ‐7.3% Source: MRIS
$400s ‐35.5%
$500s ‐17.9%
$600s ‐38.5%
The only units that had more annual sales in 2008 compared to 2007 were those priced below $300,000. The number of sales for homes priced below $200,000 is up by 815%.
< $200K $200s $300s $400s $500s $600s $700s $800s $900s $1Ms > $2M
$700s ‐40.4%
$800s ‐41.8%
$900s ‐25.3%
$1Ms ‐57.7%
> $2M ‐58.3%$
Page 5 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 20.1%Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 9.1%
12 Month High: Jun 08 599
12 Month Low: Jan 08 2572008 Average 4482007 Average 4272006 Average 437
High Sales: 20164 84Low Sales: 20117/20197/20129 2
Source: MRIS
Sterling posted the highest sales among these markets in every month but February and its year‐end percentage of total county‐wide sales was 18% compared to 10.6% in 2007. The Ashburn zip code of 20147 gathered 14.4% of the total sales in 2008, showing a percentage decline from 16.5% in 2007.
Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months)
Sales rebounded in December after five consecutive months of declines and ended the year with a 5% increase in unit sales over2007. Based on the steadily increasing sales through June 2008, the 12‐month trend was us for the year.
Total Sales
257
305
380
464
554 599573 569 501
432
339 407
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Mon
thly Sales
20
2
117
51
28 28
10
84
34
13
40
75
2 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Mon
thly Sales
Page 6 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 4.0%
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐23.2%12 Month High: Feb 08 $374,95012 Month Low: Nov 08 $303,000
2008 Average $341,8912007 Average $427,3132006 Average $465,421
High MSP: 20117 $839,950Low MSP: 20164 $208,062
Source: MRIS
The difference in median sales prices between Middleburg (20117) and Sterling (20164) was 300%. The difference in sales was 2 in Middleburg and 84 in Sterling during December.
Median Sales Price (Last Twelve Months)
After five consecutive months declines, the MSP rebounded slightly in December. Although it's too soon to predict, rising prices may signal the end of the decessionary period. Median prices were down
Median Sales Price
$370,000$374,950
$358,225
$350,000$351,000
$359,000$350,000
$335,000
$320,000$316,518
$303,000
$315,000
$275,000
$300,000
$325,000
$350,000
$375,000
$400,000
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Med
ian Sales Price
$505,699
$839,950
$458,455
$310,000
$362,160
$524,991
$463,924
$833,470
$208,062
$388,147$376,090
$390,188$415,736
$519,450
$722,350
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Med
ian Sales Price
Page 7 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
High SFD Sales: Jul 08 305Low SFD Sales: Jan 08 141
High SFA Sales: Jun 08 273
Low SFA Sales: Jan 08 101High CON Sales: Oct 08 32Low CON Sales: Feb 08 10
2008 SFD Average 2222007 SFD Average 2242008 SFA Average 2052007 SFA Average 1762008 CON Average 222007 CON Average 27
High SFD ACP: Jul 08 $567,988
Low SFD ACP: Jan 08 $472,486
High SFA ACP: Jun 08 $342,530Low SFA ACP: Jan 08 $250,314
High CON ACP: Oct 08 $265,392Low CON ACP: Feb 08 $161,356
2008 SFD Average $517,8052007 SFD Average $648,4862008 SFA Average $291,3732007 SFA Average $385,124
2008 CON Average $208,1852007 CON Average $263,942
Source: MRIS
The sales of attached units has exceeded the number of detached units for three consecutive months.
Compared to 2007, the ACP for detached units declined 20.2%; for attached units it declined 24.3%; and for condominium units it declined 21.1% by year end.
Monthly Sales (Last Twelve Months) by Product Type
Average Close Price by Product Type
141 149
188
238
271
304 305293
238
191
156188
101
146173
201
258273
247 246 237209
164202
15 10 19 25 25 22 21 30 26 3219 17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Mon
thly Sales
SFD
SFA
CON
$559,098
$555,552$531,740
$491,520
$567,988$533,489
$506,646
$484,294
$486,866
$537,842
$472,486$486,142
$342,530$324,747
$309,510 $310,678 $301,319 $302,619$291,299 $270,798
$263,477$272,558
$250,314$256,631
$207,172$190,166
$229,357 $217,064$197,908
$249,613
$201,768 $205,287
$172,737 $161,356
$265,392
$200,398
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Average
Close Price SFD
Page 8 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 ‐10.58801%
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐37.88488%
12 Month High: Jan 08 12.612 Month Low: Aug 08 5.1
2008 Average 7.12007 Average 8.32006 Average 8.3
High MSI: 20180 34.0Low MSI: 20158 2.9
Source: MRIS
The markets with the three highest supply of inventory each had two sales in December making the MSI very high. Six of the fifteen Loudoun markets are in equilibrium.
Month's Supply of Inventory (Last Twelve Months)
Month's Supply of Inventory
The 2008 average of 7.1 months is 15.4% less than the 2007 average and 18.1% less than the 2006 average. And, the ratio of sales to listings has ranged from 5.1 months to 6.3 months for eight consecutive months signaling a large improvement over 2007. However, FRC considers the market to be in equilibrium (enough supply to satisfy demand) when the MSI is 4 to 5 months.
12.6
10.9
9.0
7.7
6.35.6 5.4
5.15.6 5.2
5.985.3
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08MSI
4.5
30.0
12.010.1
4.66.0 5.4
2.9 3.9 3.9 4.7 5.5 5.2
34.0
21.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
MSI
Page 9 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
High CP/LP %: Oct 08 93.2%Low CP/LP %: Jan 08 88.0%12 Month Average 91.0%
2008 Average 91.0%2007 Average 91.8%2006 Average 90.4%
High CP/LP %: 20197 96.4%Low CP/LP %: 20141 81.9%
Source: MRIS
Average Close Price to Average List Price %
Average Close Price to Average List Price %
This indicator shows the willingness of sellers to negotiate price ‐ the lower the percentage the more price discounts are taking place. It is also a sign that sellers are forced to decrease their asking prices when their houses remain on the market too long. Sellers are pricing more realistically, the long‐term trend is up. And, the December average was greater than the 2008 overall average.
88.0%
90.1%
88.5%
89.9%
91.4%91.7%
92.5%
91.5%
92.7%93.2%
91.1%
91.8%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
CP to LP %
91.8%
84.8%85.7%
81.9%
95.5% 95.4%96.2%
85.2%
94.3%
89.8%
91.4%92.6%
89.2%
92.6%
96.4%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
92.0%
94.0%
96.0%
98.0%
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Page 10 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 7.4%
Dec 08 vs. Dec 07 ‐2.9%
12 Month High: Mar 2008 124
12 Month Low: Oct 08 9212 Month Average 108
2008 Average 1082007 Average 1132006 Average 87
High DOMP: 20117 363Low DOMP: 20166 58
Source: MRIS
The fastest moving markets in the county were Ashburn (20147 & 20148), Chantilly (20152), Sterling (20164), Dulles (20166) and Waterford/Paeonian Springs (20197‐20184). All had average DOMP figures of less than 90 days. The slowest moving markets in December were Middleburg/Upperville (20117/20184), Round Hill (20141), Lovettsville (20180), and Hamilton (20158) with averages 6.6 to 12 months.
Monthly Days on Market (Last Twelve Months)
Monthly Days on Market
The 2008 DOMP average is now 4.9% lower than the 2007 average but is still 23.4% higher than the 2006 average. The DOMP figure has declined six of the last twelve months but following three consecutive months below 100 days, the average increased 7.4% in December to exceed 100 days.
123120
124
112
119
98
109
103
9792
94
101
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Mon
thly DOMP
105
363
163
273
7962 61
198
84112
58
113 110
340
58
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Mon
thly DOMP
Page 11 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 40.3%
High: Jun 08 101
Low: Nov 08 67
Average 87
High Sales FCSS: 20164 27
Low Sales FCSS: 20117/20197 0
Source: MRIS
Sterling had the highest number of sales of foreclosure and short sale listings followed by Ashburn (20147) and Leesburg (20176). By year‐end, Sterling posted 31.3% of all short sale and foreclosure sales since April followed by second place Leesburg (12.2%) and Ashburn (10.3%).
The trendline for short sale and foreclosure sales was flat by year‐end following three consecutive months of declines although the December figure increased by 40% compared to November. At 94 sales, December's short sale and foreclosure sales were 9% higher than the 9‐month average.
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Sales
5
02 2
11
3 2 2
27
7
4
10
18
0 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Total FC/SS
69
80
101 99 100
89
80
67
94
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Listings: FCSS
Page 12 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Dec 08 vs. Nov 08 34.9%
High: Dec 08 421
Low: Aug 08 235
Average 302
High FCSS Listings: 20164 102
Low FCSS Listings: 20117/20197 1
Source: MRIS
The number of listings in the county with a foreclosure, short sale, and/or REO property designation increased by 35% last month and was 8% more than the previous high of 390 reached in May. Following four consecutive months of increases, the 9‐month trend is up.
The more affluent markets in Loudoun, Middleburg (20017) and Waterford (20197), had the fewest foreclosure listings in December.
Caution : Realtors are not required to input these designations so these figures should be used to establish emerging trends only. These are NOT recorded foreclosures.
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings
Foreclosures and Short Sale Designations: Listings
91
124
58
31 30
5
102
28
11
44
79
61
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20105 20117 20132 20141 20147 20148 20152 20158 20164 20165 20166 20175 20176 20180 20197
Total FC/SS
307
390
252 248235
255
295312
421
200
250
300
350
400
450
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Listings: FCSS
Page 13 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
High % FCSS Listings: Dec 08 19.3%
Low % FCSS Listings: Jun 08 7.5%
High % FCSS Solds: Dec 08 23.1%
Low % FCSS Solds: May 08 14.4%
Source: MRIS
The blue trendline shows that foreclosure and short sales in Loudoun County as a percentage of total sales is also increasing, it crossed the 20% barrier in December.
Foreclosures and Short Sale Listings as a Percentage of Total Listings
Foreclosures and Short Sale Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales
The 9‐month trend for the percentage of active listings with short sale and foreclosure designations rose in 2008. It has exceeded 10% for three consecutive months.
14.9% 14.4%16.9% 17.3% 17.6% 17.8% 18.5%
19.8%
23.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Percen
tage of T
otal Sales
8.6%
11.2%
7.5%8.0% 8.1%
9.1%
13.1%
15.4%
19.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08
Percen
tage of T
otal Listings
Page 14 of 15
Loudoun County Housing Market Analysis
Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Sales
Zip Code Advertised Subdivision Total FCSS Listings
20164 STERLING PARK 10 20164 STERLING PARK 41
20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 5 20152 SOUTH RIDING 15
20176 LANSDOWNE ON THE POTOMAC 4 20147 ASHBURN VILLAGE 14
20175 VA KNOLLS 3 20164 NEWBERRY 12
20164 SUGARLAND RUN 3 20165 COUNTRYSIDE 12
20165 COUNTRYSIDE 3 20176 POTOMAC STATION 11
20147 ASHBURN FARM 3 20164 SUGARLAND RUN 11
20176 LOUDOUN HILLS 3 20176 LANSDOWNE 11
20176 POTOMAC STATION 3 20147 ASHBURN FARM 10
20165 POTOMAC LAKES 2 20176 POTOMAC CROSSING 9
20175 HUNTLAND HOMES 2 20148 BRAMBLETON LAND BAY 8
20164 NEWBERRY 2 20164 PEMBROOKE OF LOUDOUN 6
20164 HUNINGTON RIDGE 2 20175 CRESTWOOD HAMLET 6
20176 SYCAMORE HILL 2 20176 FOX CHASE 5
20175 LEESBURG GATEWAY II 2 20176 EDWARDS LANDING 5
20147 BELMONT LAND BAY 2 20176 EXETER 5
20164 STERLING PK SO TH 2 20165 POTOMAC LAKES 5
20175 VA KNOLLS 5
Source: MRIS
Partial list: Five or more sales per subdivision
Foreclosure and Short Sales by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008
Foreclosure and Short Sale Listings by Advertised Subdivision: December 2008
Partial list: Two or more sales per subdivision
Page 15 of 15